The Closing Bell: Kalshi Does A Hot Dog Ad With Joey Chestnut
Roundup: Download metrics still trending up for Kalshi; a new filing in the Nevada court case; how the National Indian Gaming Commission could get involved in the fight against prediction markets.
The Closing Bell is a roundup of prediction market news, analysis, and other thoughts each Friday.
The Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest will take place on the Fourth of July, complete with betting on the contest in all 50 states via Kalshi.
To promote the betting opportunity via the prediction market, 16-time champion Joey Chestnut cut an Instagram ad in a paid partnership with Kalshi that’s been viewed more than half a million times.
There has been about $6 million traded on the winner of the contest, and about $3 million traded on how many hot dogs the winner will eat.
The market at Kalshi gives Chestnut a 92% chance to win. It also indicates the winning total of hot dogs will be in the 70s. “70 or more hot dogs“ has a 68% chance, while 75 or more has a 36% chance. Both figures are trending down slightly.
Chestnut is back in the contest after a one-year hiatus; he was banned for a sponsorship conflict. Interestingly, Chestnut seems to give betting advice on the total hot dogs market. In the ad: “My record is 76, and I’m feeling hungry.”
You can also bet on the contest at regulated sportsbooks in some states, for what it’s worth. But many states don’t allow it.
The roundup
Kalshi continues to do well in download metrics: Despite the end of the NBA Finals, Kalshi continues to see downloads at their highest point in recent months. According to Sensor Tower, Kalshi downloads for the trailing month are at 100,000, up from 70K last week. Kalshi finished in 37th place on Wednesday for free finance app downloads on the App Store; it’s been as high as No. 21 in recent weeks. While downloads at Kalshi have been doing well, trading volume is down (see Odds and Ends below).
Nevada vs. Kalshi update: Nevada filed its answer to Kalshi’s complaint in federal court against the state. Kalshi sued to try to stop Nevada from enforcing a cease-and-desist letter saying Kalshi is offering illegal sports betting. It did the same in New Jersey and Maryland. From Nevada’s filing:
“Congress did not intend to preempt state gaming laws with the enactment of
the Commodity Exchange Act.”
“Nevada State Gaming Laws do not conflict with the Commodity Exchange
Act.”
Whole thing below:
More coverage of the filing here.
How NIGC Could Take More Central Role In Fight Against Prediction Markets (InGame): “As the U.S. tribes, states, and gaming stakeholders become increasingly aggressive about keeping federally regulated prediction markets off their turf, it has often been the tribes themselves that have taken the lead. Indian Country has filed several amicus briefs arguing that Kalshi does not have the right to operate on tribal land, and is educating its own at conferences, through webinars, and at grass-roots meetings. The National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) — an independent federal agency that regulates gaming on Indian lands — could potentially quarterback the effort or serve as a rallying point for tribes. The agency so far is “actively engaged in monitoring the discussion” and has been since well before any tribe reached out, Chief of Staff Dustin Thomas told InGame. Though it has not issued any statements or initiated any events, Thomas said his agency participated in a legislative summit sponsored by Indian Gaming Association (IGA) and a meeting of tribal leaders in Washington, D.C. in June, and has accepted every request and meeting from tribes.”
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev talks prediction markets, briefly: Below is an interview he did on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Interviewer: “The other big issue is the world of Kalshi, and the world of Polymarket. And…by the way, also the world of sports betting. And where do you think Robinhood in the end plays in all of that? Meaning, do you think it's exchanges that will be the leaders in that realm, or do you think that this will take place in these other betting realms?
Tenev: “Yeah, I do think exchanges will play a role. I mean, if you look at our offerings; so we launched prediction markets last fall with the presidential election, and we did that in partnership with ForecastEx, which is Interactive Brokers subsidiary contract market. And then more recently we've been expanding. We do all sorts of economic indicators — inflation, CPI, gas prices — and sports. And that's been in partnership with Kalshi. So I think our role in this market is retail distribution. We've got close to 26 million customer accounts just in the US that are interested in this stuff and are in the target demographic. So I think distribution is going to be very important. Exchange infrastructure is obviously important to make the market happen as well.
Odds and ends
A newsletter and podcast from Eilers & Krejcik talking about prediction markets, including the possibility of the betting exchange Smarkets getting involved with nationwide sports betting:
You can now bet on college football games at Kalshi:
Kalshi Launches Betting On College Football Games
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You will be able to bet on college football games at Kalshi this fall.
Trading volume dips at Kalshi with the NBA season over:
Kalshi Volume Report: Sports Is 50% Of Trading As Activity Dips
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Kalshi became less dependent on sports with the NBA season over, but its volume was down significantly as well.
Unpacking what Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on CNBC:
Three Interesting Things Kalshi's CEO Told CNBC
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Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour went on CNBC’s Squawk Box after closing a $185 million fundraising round that valued the company at $2 billion.
Here’s a new newsletter on Substack, talking about the House election markets that Kalshi recently posted:
And more on those new House markets here.
Kalshi is sponsoring a sports betting podcast.
There are some weird tweets out there claiming you can bet parlays on Kalshi, being retweeted by Kalshi’s CEO. You can’t bet on parlays as of now; one even has a community note. A couple of examples here and here. Engagement farming, I guess.
Here are another couple of sites/newsletters that focus on prediction market trends.
Ridiculous things you can
bettrade on at prediction markets:Polymarket: Diddy prison time?
