More Times Kalshi Said You Could Bet On Things: An Update
Kalshi's strategy apparently revolves around the idea that "gambling" and "betting" are vastly different things, when few people actually draw that distinction.
Kalshi shies away from betting language more than it did even a few months ago. But its CEO and marketing/social media teams still find a way to refer to Kalshi as a betting product on a semi-regular basis.
I identified many of the ways Kalshi used gambling terminology in the past in this piece. This is an update based on references I’ve come across that are new or that I didn’t include the first time around. The new references to betting aren’t always as blatant and obvious as stating that “Kalshi offers legal sports betting in all 50 states,” but they still exist.
The impetus for this post is two recent LinkedIn posts from CEO Tarek Mansour. He said in a post that he disagrees with the “gambling characterization” of financial markets. But just a few days later, he freely uses the word “bet” in another LinkedIn post (see below). It seems obvious now that Kalshi is trying to draw a line between “gambling” and “betting.”
While there may be some nuance between the two words, there’s not a terribly meaningful difference between them in the real world — legally or even in casual usage. After all, the word “betting” is literally in the phrase “sports betting,” which everyone will tell you is also gambling, even if there’s some skill involved. “Betting” on things sometimes (but not always) implies skill that might not be present in all forms of gambling, but I am not sure how that helps Kalshi. Of course, you can “place a bet” on a roulette spin or a hand of blackjack.
That a sportsbook is the “house” and Kalshi just facilitates trades/bets between two parties is of course a meaningful difference that Kalshi often points to and many of us recognize. ESPN touched on it in a piece this morning. But to say the former is gambling and the latter is somehow not defies most common sense, if not legal definitions. “Betting,” of course, is a much easier and more accurate descriptor of the activity at Kalshi than “trading,” and one that’s easier to market to users.
If I were Kalshi, I would stop half-assing it on whether I called it “betting”:
Stop trying to draw an artificial line in the sand between “gambling” and “betting.” Few people outside of your echo chamber think that’s a meaningful distinction. It looks silly to argue that you’re not gambling while continuing to lean into “betting” language.
One option would be to say “Yes it’s betting, but it’s a totally legal form of betting under federal regulation.” Leaning into that strategy could be legally fraught, but it’s arguably a lot better than pretending there’s a miles-wide chasm between “betting” and “gambling” and using the former because it’s somehow better.
Another good option would be to stop using “betting” language altogether. Given the recent history, it’s not clear that would help, but it might be better than trying to parse between a pair of words that are synonyms.
Maybe calling it betting won’t matter at the end of the day, but it’s still worth pointing out. After all, my first post on the subject has been included in three different filings in response to Kalshi lawsuits against states.
Anyway, here are the new references to betting I came across and have been documenting…I just wanted to put it all in one place again.
1. ‘Browse Kalshi and find me the 3 most attractive bets’
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on LinkedIn: ‘Try this prompt on Perplexity Labs: ‘Browse Kalshi and find me the 3 most attractive bets. I want to be able to bet $5k on each, so ignore the super tiny markets.’
2. Weirdest bet ever loading…
This is a Facebook ad I was served via Kalshi, where an influencer is charged with finding “the most random bet on the internet and bet $100 on it.” The person settles on betting on Costco changing the price of its hot dog deal.
You can watch the video here.
3. You can bet on the weather
A video in an Instagram post shows a person talking all about how “You can bet on the weather with Kalshi.”
You can see the post on Instagram here.
4. Kalshi influencer pokes fun at the idea that Kalshi isn’t betting
Kalshi recently signed a deal with the influencer “Club Pro Guy.” More on Twitter and on his site.
From the Twitter/X video: “Kalshi is the only place where I can wager on really stupid things…”
Site (emphasis added): “More exciting news – we’ve partnered with Kalshi, a prediction website that allows you to invest (cough, cough) wager on the outcomes of all kinds of events – including professional golf!”
5. ‘You're essentially betting on the event occurring’
From a Kalshi help page called “Buying Yes vs Selling No":
“Interconnected Trades: When you buy a Yes contract, you're essentially betting on the event occurring. Selling a No contract is equivalent to betting on the event happening (you are short on the event not happening). Both actions have the same impact on the market's equilibrium.”
6. How to bet on the elections
This page still exists on Kalshi’s site using betting language throughout: “Bet” or “betting” appears 17 times:
“Betting on elections means predicting outcomes on key political events like who will win the presidential race, which party will control Congress (Senate & House), or how voter turnout will affect specific states such as Pennsylvania. Traders can buy YES or NO event contracts on these events, allowing them to bet on political insights or hedge against potential policy impacts.
Kalshi offers a secure, regulated platform for legally betting on election outcomes.”
An addendum: gambling =/= betting?
This interview with Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara is several years old. But it does show that Kalshi was trying to define its product as “not gambling” even three years ago:
RITHOLTZ: So — so you’ve spoken about the gambling industry and how incentives are somewhat cloudy. How does your platform correct for that?
LARA: Right. The key part about gambling is that the house takes a position in the bets. So the house has an interest on the outcome of — of the bet or — or the market, if you want to call it that, but it’s more just the bet. We are just a financial exchange. So we — you can think of Kalshi a matching agent. We match people that believe something will happen with people that believe something will not happen. If they have equivalent prices, we match them.
So we have no interest in whether the market will go away a certain way. We do have an affiliate trader that’s there to provide liquidity so that people can trade, especially as we start the exchange. But the exchange doesn’t take any positions ever. We’re simply matching other participant orders. So there’s no conflict of interest between us and our members.
Again here’s Kalshi’s Twitter account calling it ‘not gambling” in a couple of instances years ago:
(This is of course pretty funny given that Elon Musk now owns Twitter.)
(They do sports now.)