Kalshi Dominated By Sports Betting Again Last Week

Fourteen of top 20 markets by trading volume were sports; NBA betting accounts for more than half of all trading on the prediction markets platform

Kalshi continues to be largely a platform for sports betting, with more than 80% of all trading again involving sports event contracts for the past week.

Those top-line numbers are similar to last week’s data. The prediction market’s continued reliance on sports raises questions about how viable Kalshi’s business would be without sports, outside of election cycles and other tentpole events.

Here’s a look at the top 20 markets by trading volume at Kalshi from May 26-June 1:

Some notes about the data:

• More than half of all betting was on the NBA; Robinhood includes trading on game winners and the NBA champion via its partnership with Kalshi.

  • More than half of all trading was on single-game betting on the NBA, NHL, and Major League Baseball.

  • It seems likely that once the NBA and NHL finals are over, trading on Kalshi may drop sharply later this month.

    • Tennis and golf majors will likely drive volume outside of MLB single-game betting through the end of summer.

    • It will be interesting to see if Kalshi pushes into more sports as it tries to ride out the doldrums of summer before football season. It did recently launch trading on Major League Soccer games.

• About 7% of all trading took place around the French Open (KXFO markets).

• The winner of the Champions League final (KXUEFACL) generated about 3% of all trading this week. Trading was likely limited because the final match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan was a blowout.

• Only two of the top ten markets involved something other than sports, and only six of the top 20.

A rundown of other markets appearing in the top 20:

• Bitcoin price today at x time (KXBTCD)

• What will the Federal Reserve do with interest rates? (KXFEDDECISION)

• S&P price today at x time (KXINXU)

• Poland election for president (KXPRESPOLAND)

• Gas price this month (KXAAAGASM)

• NASDAQ price today at x time (KXNASDAQ100U)