Kalshi had what seems like a pretty clear-cut market posted about whether the CEO of X (aka Twitter), Linda Yaccarino, would leave her role this year. It turns out it’s not as clear-cut as it might seem for people trading at the prediction market.
It’s pretty simple — if you need to rename the market in anyway internally your trading team understands potential confusion and issues already—best practice is to void the market and everyone is refunded their transaction volumes — then learn from it, and provide more market settlement details upfront during the “betting” (I mean transaction) process
Yea -- not really sure why they did this, especially with all the Polymarket controversy this week. I think if Kalshi is trying to position themselves as the trustable and reliable prediction market they should definitely find a way to revert this. Not an expert on CFTC regulations but am also skeptical this flies with regulators
It’s pretty simple — if you need to rename the market in anyway internally your trading team understands potential confusion and issues already—best practice is to void the market and everyone is refunded their transaction volumes — then learn from it, and provide more market settlement details upfront during the “betting” (I mean transaction) process
That would be a fine outcome but one I suspect won’t happen
Yea -- not really sure why they did this, especially with all the Polymarket controversy this week. I think if Kalshi is trying to position themselves as the trustable and reliable prediction market they should definitely find a way to revert this. Not an expert on CFTC regulations but am also skeptical this flies with regulators
This is very niche and probably won't get much in the way of people poking at it...I just catalog all of it for the future :)