Kalshi Apparently Has A Deal With xAI, Take Two
Back in May, Kalshi and Bloomberg reported an xAI deal, but the story was retracted. Later, Polymarket became an official partner of xAI. Now there's a new announcement!
Earlier this year, Kalshi announced a deal with xAI — but quickly retracted it. Then Polymarket became an official partner of X and xAI. And now Kalshi has a deal with xAI (too? again?) as of today.
If you’re confused, join the club. But let’s get into what we know:
The official xAI account tweeted that it had entered into a partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi. The partnership allows you to ask Grok about what’s happening in a market offered on Kalshi, if you click through and watch the video.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted about the deal as well: “What once seemed crazy is now obvious. When we launched Kalshi, people thought we were nuts. Today, prediction markets are one of the most powerful tools for understanding the world. We’ve always admired those who defy the odds - and no one embodies that more than Elon and xAI. In just two years, xAI went from an idea to running the largest training center on the planet. The pace of innovation is hard to believe. And AI will be critical to the evolution of prediction markets. Together, we’re building at xAI’s pace to shape the future of this ecosystem.”
So far, I haven’t seen any evidence of the xAI deal in action on Kalshi. Some markets at Kalshi had a “what’s happening” card well before this deal that would show you a summary of recent news related to the market.
Let’s rewind, because this is a messy story.
On May 20, Bloomberg reported and Mansour confirmed that Kalshi entered into a deal with xAI. However, before the day was over, Mansour had deleted his posts on social media, and Bloomberg had retracted the story. We still don't know why any of that happened (to my knowledge), but it was a pretty big mess.
On June 6, Polymarket announced a deal with X and xAI. There was a press release and everything:
“Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, and 𝕏 today announced an official partnership through which Polymarket will serve as the official Prediction Market Partner to 𝕏. Terms of the partnership were not disclosed. …
"Combining Polymarket's accurate, unbiased, and real-time prediction market probabilities with Grok's analysis and 𝕏's real time insights will enable us to provide contextualized, data-driven insights to millions of Polymarket users around the world instantaneously," said Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket. "We are proud to work with 𝕏 as the official prediction market partner and to continue our fruitful collaboration developing an innovative suite of product integrations. We look forward to enhancing 𝕏 and Polymarket users' ability to make instant sense of breaking news and make informed decisions about the future as we continue to scale our platform."
As of this morning, the Polymarket and xAI deal still seems to be live. You can ask Grok things on Polymarket:
Perhaps the greatest part of this announcement is that if you ask Grok about it, it will deny the partnership exists. Someone asked what happened to the Polymarket deal, and here was the response: “The Polymarket partnership remains active since June 2025, integrating Grok for real-time prediction insights. The recent Kalshi announcement appears inaccurate— a similar claim was retracted in May, with no confirmed update. We're sticking with proven partners for truth-seeking.”
I also asked Grok to tell me about the deal, and here’s what I got:
In any event, despite the history and Grok telling us the deal doesn’t exist, it seems like Kalshi and xAI do have a deal this time, for real.
The biggest question: How did Polymarket enter into a deal that was not exclusive on this front? If we’re reading tea leaves, maybe the “exclusive” part applies only to the deal with X (the social platform), not xAI.
It appears the AI/content functionality on both prediction markets is similar. At minimum, it’s strange that Polymarket and Kalshi — a rivalry that is going to grow as Polymarket reenters the US — would be content to have the same partner. After all, there are plenty of other integrations you could do on the AI front.
Anyway, xAI is coming to Kalshi. We think. Unless it isn’t.