The Most Interesting Comments On CFTC's Prediction Market Rulemaking

Roundup: Senate bans senators from prediction market trading; Kalshi will limit trading hours on crop contracts.

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Thursday was the deadline for submitting public comments to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as it prepares to write rules for prediction markets.

The “public” part of this became a mess, as there were more than 1,500 submissions, many of which are repetitive or not terribly useful.

The deadline meant there were dozens of new comments, including many from some pretty important companies, organizations and sports leagues.

This post is less about ranking the comments themselves and more about identifying the most notable entities and people that submitted them. This is not an exhaustive list of every interesting or notable submission, but rather a top-level audit.

The main buckets that submitted comments fall under

• Tribal governments and tribal gaming organizations

• Prediction market operators

• Sports betting / gaming / casino interests

• Gambling regulators

• Sports leagues and players associations

• Financial market infrastructure

• Crypto / VC

• Consumer protection / anti-gambling / watchdog groups

• Academics and researchers

• Regular people

NBA

• Dan Spillane, Executive Vice President and Assistant General Counsel, League Governance & Policy:

  • There is no higher priority for the NBA than protecting the integrity of our games and preserving public confidence in our league and in our sport. While this letter takes no position on the legal question of whether sports prediction markets constitute gambling under federal or state law, we believe that such markets raise integrity concerns that are similar to those associated with sports betting. lt is the NBA’s view that sports prediction markets should be subject to robust and comprehensive regulations that are specifically designed to protect the integrity of sports leagues and their competitions. …

  • Minimum Age Limits. We note that sports event contract trading is currently available to individuals of 18 years of age or older. By contrast, legal sports betting is, in most states, limited to individuals over the age of 21. Like sports betting, trading in sports prediction contracts carries material risks (e.g., of financial loss) that may be particularly acute for younger individuals. The Commission should take formal note of this reality and should categorically prohibit trading of sports prediction contracts by individuals under 21. Short of that, the Commission should take action to restrict DCMs’ ability to directly market their sports products specifically to individuals in the 18-20 age range.

  • Official League Data. In order to avoid confusion and maintain fan and consumer confidence in sports prediction markets, DCMs should be required to, wherever possible, use only officially-verified data to settle sports-related contracts.

  • Limits on Approved Markets. In addition, we urge the Commission to impose meaningful limits on the types of permitted markets - particularly with respect to markets that are more susceptible to manipulation and/or misuse of confidential information. …

  • Finally, we urge the Commission to adopt a robust set of responsible trading requirements. Specifically, DCMs should be required to provide (directly and/or by requiring their contracted FCMs to provide) responsible trading tools to their customers, such as deposit limits, trading breaks, and educational resources to understand risks.

Major League Baseball

• Quest Meeks, Senior Vice President & Head Counsel, Policy, Integrity & Compliance:

  • The Advisory encouraged DCMs to, among other things, engage in “pre-self-certification communications” with relevant sports leagues and consult “any league integrity standards or guidance” when considering whether to list a particular contract. We strongly support this recommendation. Regulations codifying this concept could, for example, state that DCMs should not list contracts that a league has identified––through a public notice or other mechanism––as readily susceptible to manipulation or unfair trading practices. Regulations could also direct DCMs to implement position limits or other restrictions requested by leagues when an outright ban on a market is not necessary to protect the integrity of sporting events or prediction markets. …

  • The Advisory asked DCMs to consider “establishing information-sharing and data arrangements with the relevant sports integrity monitoring organization.” We again agree with the import of this recommendation but want to emphasize that DCMs should be establishing information-sharing agreements with leagues themselves, not just third-party integrity monitoring organizations. To that end, CFTC regulations could state that any DCM intending to list contracts related to a given sport should have an information-sharing agreement with the relevant league. Regulations could further specify that, at a league’s request, DCMs should share pseudonymized transaction level data with the league so that the league can independently supplement the DCMs’ own trade surveillance systems. Beyond that, we support formalizing the Advisory’s recommendation that “DCMs cooperate with any league-run investigations into potential manipulation or insider trading investigations” and requiring DCMs to directly report to the relevant league any suspicious trading activity or potential violations of league rules. …

  • We support regulations aimed at fostering responsible trading practices and protecting consumers. In the sports betting context, for example, certain laws prohibit misleading advertising, require operators to adopt self-exclusion programs, ban wagering on credit, and create funding for research, education, and treatment surrounding problem gambling. The CFTC should consider adopting similar measures for prediction markets and collaborating with the National Futures Association to ensure uniform customer protections across derivatives intermediaries.

PGA Tour

• Andy Levinson, SVP, Tournament Administration:

  • In addition to the use of official league data, the PGA TOUR respectfully submits that the Commission should adopt a framework that:

    • Requires robust integrity safeguards, integrity monitoring and reporting requirements, as well as cooperation with sport governing bodies.

    • Establishes know-your-customer standards that allow for the ability to detect and share information at the individual trade level, should there be an integrity concern.

    • Increases the age requirement of those who can participate in sports event contracts to 21.

    • Establishes restrictions on insider participation and prevention of insider trading, including specified penalties for any individual who is prohibited from such activity under a sports governing body’s integrity policy.

    • Restricts potentially harmful markets and allows the rights holders to approve or deny markets in advance of the self-certification process, as well as offer immediate takedown of markets that are deemed to be questionable or concerning.

    • Requires DCMs to establish education tools as well as harm-reduction resources for those trading sports event contracts.

    • Establishes anti-harassment measures for the safety of all athletes.

    • Enforces policies to the fullest extent.

ATP Tour

• Mark Young, Chief Legal & Administrative Officer:

  • From ATP’s perspective, prediction markets allow customers to stake money on the outcomes of sporting events in a manner that closely resembles state regulated sports betting and raise similar integrity and consumer protection concerns. Like state-regulated sports betting, prediction markets create incentives for individuals to manipulate sporting events and exploit non-public information, and both present risks of consumer harm.

  • At the state level, robust regulatory frameworks govern sports betting and have proven effective in safeguarding competition integrity and protecting consumers. Federally regulated prediction markets should be subject to comparable regulatory frameworks and should be encouraged and enabled to adhere to the existing integrity frameworks that individual sports have carefully designed to mitigate the risks associated with staking money on the outcome of sports events.

  • Summary of Recommendations: In brief, ATP requests that the Commission implement the following measures in forthcoming rulemaking relating to event contracts and prediction markets:

    • Require prediction markets to collect and maintain sufficient trader information to identify traders and any affiliations with professional sports leagues or athletes;

    • Require prediction markets to support and cooperate with parallel sports integrity investigations, including through the sharing of relevant information with sports leagues and governing bodies;

    • Clearly define and restrict categories of sports-related event contracts that are readily susceptible to manipulation;

    • Require sports-related event contracts to settle exclusively based on official league data; and

    • Subject prediction markets to consumer protection and responsible trading obligations similar to those applicable to state-regulated sports betting.

Players associations

• Elevate Government Affairs on Behalf of the NFLPA, MLBPA, NBPA, NHLPA, and MLSPA:

  • To address these concerns, we believe any prediction market rulemaking that allows for the continued offering of sports-related contracts should, at a minimum, include:

    • 1. A prohibition on contracts based on a “negative” outcome or that can be manipulated by a single individual. This would include contracts based on so-called “under” bets or on whether an athlete is injured or penalized. It would also include “mention contracts” dependent on whether specific words or phrases, such as “concussion,” are spoken during live event broadcasts (which is just another way of betting on a negative outcome).

Kalshi

• Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara:

  • The existing regulatory framework—including the DCM and DCO Core Principles, the self-certification process, and protections against manipulation and fraud—is well-designed and effective. The Commission should build on this strong foundation by providing clear guidance that supports a broad range of event contracts on regulated exchanges, drawing firm lines where appropriate — around terrorism, assassination, war, and casino-style gaming — while ensuring that the universe of event contracts can continue to be listed, traded, and overseen by the Commission.

  • For the overwhelming majority of contracts, the right response to manipulation risk, integrity risk, and customer protection concerns is not to narrow the universe of permissible contracts, which would push volume offshore (like the origin of the London Eurodollar market), but to ensure that DCMs and DCOs are doing the work the Core Principles already require them to do. Kalshi supports and is prepared to undertake enhanced surveillance, robust cooperation with Commission enforcement, and additional intra-exchange controls calibrated to the specific risks that certain markets could present. We believe DCMs, DCOs, the Commission, and market participants are all better served by a framework that holds exchanges to demanding standards on the work they perform—not a framework that resorts to categorical prohibitions that drive demand to offshore platforms.

Polymarket US

• Justin Hertzberg, CEO:

  • We support Chairman Selig’s regulatory philosophy to ensure that the CFTC promotes “smart, clear regulations.” While Commission guidance or rulemaking may be appropriate in targeted areas, a bespoke set of new prediction market regulations would be largely duplicative of existing rules, impose unnecessary regulatory burdens, stifle innovation, and run contrary to the CFTC’s longstanding principles-based approach to regulation.

FanDuel

• Cory Fox, Senior Vice President, Public Policy & Sustainability:

  • In our view, new rules that appropriately balance prediction markets’ unique innovations against the risks they present, both to derivatives markets and to the events they reference, are the correct next step in the advancement of the Commission’s approach to regulating these markets. We believe greater regulatory clarity will serve to support increased investment and innovation in prediction markets. …

  • Second, to ensure industry-wide coordination and communication given the rapidly evolving and multifaceted nature of this space, the Commission should adopt regulations requiring Operators to

    • (i) join an integrity monitoring association;

    • (ii) enter into information-sharing arrangements with these associations to enable cross-market monitoring; and

    • (iii) implement systems specifically designed to detect and flag to the relevant association unusual trading patterns or potential manipulation in prediction markets. …

  • In particular, the Commission should assess what event contracts raise similar consumer protection concerns to traditional betting or wagering activity and subject trading in those contracts to similar rules. …

  • Specifically, the Commission and the NFA should collaborate to ensure that uniform requirements and standards relating to promotional practices are applicable to direct-access DCMs in addition to FCMs and IBs.

DraftKings

• DraftKings supports clear, durable rules that permit responsible innovation, protect customers, preserve market integrity, and give regulated firms a workable framework within which to compete. This letter makes five main points in support of these objectives.

  • First, the Commission should address market structure directly. In DraftKings’ view, a DCM that wishes to provide access to retail participants should do so through an affiliated FCM or, if the Commission continues to permit a disintermediated model, subject that model to requirements comparable to those imposed on the intermediated model. The Commission also should take a permissive approach to vertical integration and should permit common ownership of a DCM, DCO, intermediary, and affiliated market maker.

  • Second, the Commission should provide fit-for-purpose rules on reporting, clearing, and liquidity provision. The Commission’s framework should account for the actual risk profile of event contracts and the practical realities of clearing and market making.

  • Third, the Commission should establish a durable rules-based framework that preserves flexibility. Rules provide greater long-term certainty and are less susceptible to shifting over time, but they need not be rigid. The Commission can adopt rules that preserve flexibility through principles-based standards and tailored requirements.

  • Fourth, the Commission should apply a contract-specific, public-interest framework. Section 5c(c)(5)(C) does not authorize the Commission to collapse the statutory inquiry into categorical judgments based solely on subject matter labels. The Commission should evaluate a contract’s design, the underlying activity, the participants who may influence the outcome, the settlement process, and the safeguards in place.

  • Fifth, the Commission should not treat “gaming” as categorically contrary to the public interest. DraftKings does not concede that sports event contracts necessarily involve “gaming” within the meaning of section 5c(c)(5)(C) or Rule 40.11, and the Commission should not read “gaming” so broadly that it captures contracts tied to sporting events merely because those events are colloquially described as “games.” But regardless, the Commission should reconsider whether “gaming” should remain in Rule 40.11 in light of the materially changed landscape since 2010.

Rothera

• Thomas Chippas, CEO of Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC (the new joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna):

  • With respect to market manipulation, the CFTC should adopt a principles-based framework for regulating event-contract markets to address market disruption risks, allowing flexibility and innovation while avoiding outdated rules. Key principles include ensuring separation of market participation from outcome influence through accurate prohibited participant lists, encouraging collaborative standard-setting without market control, requiring independent and transparent data sources to prevent manipulation, implementing risk-based monitoring systems to detect trading patterns, and a focus on measurable outcomes like low manipulation incidence and effective insider exclusion. This approach emphasizes flexibility, collaboration, and accountability to maintain market integrity. …

  • At Rothera, we advocate for rethinking public interest factors in event-contract markets through a principles-based approach that enhances transparency and innovation. We propose defining “gaming” as operator-banked wagering, distinct from exchange-traded contracts driven by competitive and market forces. This definition of “gaming” excludes contracts that serve price discovery and risk transfer, even in sports contexts. We emphasize excluding chance-based contests like lotteries while allowing skill-based events with safeguards. Independent settlement sources and position limits are essential to mitigate risks and maintain market integrity.

Delaware North

• We strongly oppose the expansion of sports betting, casino-style wagering, and insider trading through so-called “event contracts” that function as unregulated gambling and bypass longstanding and constitutionally mandated states’ rights to determine whether and how gaming is regulated.

The Coalition for Prediction Markets

• Prediction markets are not fundamentally different from other DCMs that the CFTC has successfully regulated for decades. In fact, the same provisions in the CEA and CFTC Regulations that apply to prediction markets apply to, for example, traditional wheat and corn futures contracts that have successfully traded on commodity exchanges in the U.S. for almost two centuries. The CFTC’s existing regulatory framework, including its Core Principles for DCMs, will facilitate innovation while protecting market integrity. The Coalition supports the continued application of this framework to prediction markets and event contracts. The Coalition also supports amending CFTC Rule 40.11(a) and, in any new rule, defining the term “gaming” to cover traditional casino-style games.

Indian Gaming Association

• The Indian Gaming Association strongly urges the CFTC to affirm its current interpretation of the CEA and clarify that Sports Contracts are prohibited from being listed or made available for clearing or trading. Trading of Sports Contracts is gambling. It violates state, tribal, and federal law and is contrary to public policy. Allowing Sports Contracts to be listed and traded interferes with the sovereign right of tribal and state governments to exercise their police power to regulate gaming within their respective jurisdictions. This right is fundamental to the authority of state and tribal governments to regulate or even prohibit activities deemed contrary by state and tribal governments to the public interest

Congress

• Rep. Paul Tonko: The Commission should not permit prediction markets to exploit definitional loopholes to bypass existing and future gaming regulations. Doing so would directly undermine the public interest standard it is charged with upholding.

• Group of 20+ US Senators: We therefore urge you to realign the Commission’s actions with the statute and with the testimony you provided to Congress under oath. Declining to intervene on behalf of prediction market platforms and clarifying by rule that enumerated activities are contrary to the public interest would restore confidence that the CFTC is enforcing the law Congress enacted—not reshaping it through post-hoc policy shifts. We also request that you begin engaging with tribal communities on this issue, as Members of the Senate Agriculture Committee requested — and as you committed to doing — during your confirmation process.

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Prediction markets roundup

🚨 The important stuff

• Senate bans senators from prediction market trading (Politico): “The Senate Thursday unanimously voted to ban senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets, a practice that has come under growing scrutiny on Capitol Hill in recent months. The resolution, spearheaded by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), prohibits senators and staff from using prediction markets. It goes into effect immediately.”

  • Press release from Moreno: Today, the Senate passed Senator Bernie Moreno’s (R-Ohio) resolution banning sitting United States Senators, Officers, and staff from using prediction markets by unanimous consent. Senator Moreno released the following statement:

  • “United States Senators have no business engaging in speculative activities like prediction markets while collecting a taxpayer-funded paycheck, period,” said Senator Moreno. “Serving in Congress should never be about finding new ways to profit; it should be about delivering results for the American people.”

    • Watch Senator Moreno’s full remarks HERE….

    • Senator Moreno’s resolution modifies the standing rules of the Senate to prohibit Senators from entering any financial deal where the outcome depends on whether a specific event does or does not happen.

    • Read the full text of the resolution HERE.

  • From Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour: “I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets. Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard. Now, let’s pass this in the House!”

    

    Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

    I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets. Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it

    

    Kalshi @Kalshi

    JUST IN: Senate passes unanimous resolution to ban its members from trading prediction markets

    5:25 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 333K Views

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    87 Replies · 188 Reposts · 1.03K Likes

  • From Polymarket on Twitter:

    

    Polymarket@Polymarket

    We’re in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. Happy to help move this forward however we can.

    

    Bernie Moreno @berniemoreno

    Proud to say my bill to ban members of Congress from insider trading on prediction markets just passed the Senate UNANIMOUSLY! Serving in Congress is an honor, not a side hustle. Americans deserve to know that their leaders are here for the right reason!

    6:16 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 232K Views

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    100 Replies · 195 Reposts · 1.17K Likes

  • Rep. Dina Titus Introduces Resolution To Ban Representatives And Their Staff From Participating In Prediction Markets (press release): Today Congresswoman Dina Titus (NV-01) introduced a resolution that would ban Representatives and their staff members from participating in prediction markets.

    • “Like with stock trading, no Member of Congress should be able to profit off their insider knowledge by placing informed bets on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket,” said Congresswoman Dina Titus. “We saw this happen with the Maduro arrest and again before President Trump’s war in Iran began. This legislation is fair and fosters trust and transparency from Congress to the American people.”

    • This legislation would amend House rules to prohibit Members of Congress, their staff, and House officers from entering into any financial agreement or contract involving an “excluded commodity” as defined under the Commodity Exchange Act, the legal category that covers prediction market contracts tied to the outcome of a specific event or contingency. The resolution also calls on the executive and judicial branches to adopt similar restrictions, ensuring that no federal official can leverage privileged government knowledge for personal financial gain.

    • You can find the full resolution text here.

• Senators Gillibrand and McCormick Introduce Bipartisan Bill To Stop Politicians From Profiting Off Insider Information And Protect Consumers In Prediction Markets (press release): U.S. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) today introduced the Prediction Market Act of 2026, landmark bipartisan legislation that establishes regulatory clarity, stops Washington politicians from using non-public information to enrich themselves, and protects consumers from fraud in the rapidly growing prediction market sector. …

  • Senator Gillibrand’s regulatory framework puts regular Americans first by banning members of Congress, the president and vice president, and senior executive branch officials from trading event contracts, prohibiting deceptive marketing, and mandating strict safeguards for retail investors.

  • “Elected officials should be working for the people they represent — not lining their own pockets with insider information. Americans deserve financial markets that are fair, transparent, and not tilted in favor of those with privileged access,” said Senator Gillibrand. “This commonsense, bipartisan bill puts strong guardrails in place to protect consumers, prevent insider trading, and hold prediction market platforms to standards of integrity.”

  • Prediction markets have expanded dramatically in recent years, with millions of Americans trading event contracts tied to real-world outcomes — economic indicators, weather, elections, and cultural events. Yet the industry has operated with limited regulatory clarity, leaving the door open to insider trading, manipulation, and retail investor harm. The Prediction Market Act of 2026 addresses these risks head-on.

  • Key provisions of the Prediction Market Act of 2026 include:

    • Banning Political Insider Trading: Members of Congress, the president, the vice president, and senior executive branch officials are prohibited from trading on prediction markets. This prevents politicians with access to sensitive government information from unfairly profiting at the expense of everyday Americans.

    • Establishing Clear Insider Trading Standards: The bill directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit trading on material nonpublic information and to define enforceable insider trading standards tailored specifically to prediction markets.

    • Protecting Customer Funds: Firms must meet strict financial protection standards, including full segregation of customer funds and a ban on commingling, ensuring that customer assets are fully protected at all times.

    • Safeguarding Vulnerable Consumers: The bill requires self-exclusion programs and mandatory age verification to protect vulnerable consumers from predatory practices.

    • Strengthening Illicit Finance Safeguards: Platforms must comply with Bank Secrecy Act–level requirements, including customer due diligence, transaction monitoring, and suspicious activity reporting.

    • Creating an Office of the Retail Advocate: A new, independent office within the CFTC will champion everyday investors, assist consumers with disputes, and hold bad actors accountable.

    • Creating an Advisory Council on Consumer Protection: A new Advisory Council on Consumer Protection within the CFTC brings together regulators, law enforcement, consumer advocates, and market participants to strengthen oversight of retail activity in prediction markets.

    • Preserving State Consumer Protections: The bill maintains robust federal oversight while preserving state authority to enforce consumer protection laws, ensuring comprehensive, layered supervision.

• Why prediction markets might be skipping the Kentucky Derby (ESPN): “Leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have enabled their users to bet on just about everything over the past year -- from the outcomes of political races and daily temperatures in U.S. cities to the winners of sporting events. When it comes to the 2026 Kentucky Derby, though, it appears they are bowing out.”

  • “As of Thursday morning, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had listed a market for the winner of Saturday’s Derby in Louisville, which is both the most prestigious annual event in its sport and a marquee date on the sports betting calendar. A Kalshi spokesperson declined comment when asked if the company planned to accept trades on the Kentucky Derby. Polymarket briefly opened a market last week then took it down -- apparently at Churchill Downs’ request.”

• Prediction markets say they’re different from sportsbooks. Gambling addicts say it’s all the same (Associated Press): “The rapid growth of prediction markets has sparked a high-stakes debate that is playing out in courts and legislatures all over the country. Operators of those companies believe they should be regulated like the stock exchange because of federal law and their customer-to-customer structure, while sportsbooks and state officials think they should be supervised the same way as sports gambling platforms.”

  • “While that argument continues with no sign of resolution, the clinicians who treat gambling disorders are more concerned about what they are seeing with their patients. In their spaces, when it comes to sports gambling and prediction markets, the end result is virtually the same.”

⚖️ Legal and regulatory news

• Kalshi To Limit Trading Hours On Crop Contracts After Industry Pushback (Bloomberg): “Kalshi Inc. has agreed to limit trading hours on new financial contracts tied to crops like corn and wheat after facing pushback from the agriculture industry and derivatives exchanges.”

  • “Trading on Kalshi, the most popular US prediction market, generally happens around the clock, seven days a week, but the company has told groups representing the agriculture industry that for certain products it will stick to the same hours as traditional exchanges.”

• CFTC Reviews Trader Data Report as Kalshi Expands in Commodities (Bloomberg): That review comes after Kalshi Inc., a leading prediction markets platform, announced in mid-April the exchange would be offering a new commodities trading hub. But unlike industry stalwarts like CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. that support trading of grain, energy and numerous other derivatives, prediction markets don’t have to furnish information that is compiled into COT reports.”

  • CFTC Seeks Public Comment Relating to Commitments of Traders Reports (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today issued a Request for Comment regarding potential modifications to its Commitments of Traders Reports (COT Reports) program, including publication of the reports on a more frequent basis and changes to the content of the reports.

    • This Request for Comment provides background on the history, purpose, data, and evolution of the COT Reports program, outlines changes in market structure affecting the reports, and poses specific questions regarding potential future modifications.

    • “After significant outreach and communication with the agricultural community and commercial end users, the Commission is examining the current structure and publication of our COT Reports,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Public comment will give the agency vital perspective as we evaluate potential modifications to its COT Reports program.”

• Prediction markets ban passes MN Senate (Fox 9): “Senators voted 56-10 to ban the parts of prediction markets that operate similar to betting. The bill also received bipartisan support in the House. However, House GOP leadership has tried to keep the measure from coming to a vote, so the outcome is still up in the air.”

📣 Industry news

• Polymarket Adds New Detection Tools After Insider Bet Backlash (Bloomberg): “Polymarket is partnering with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis Inc. to help police its platform as prediction markets grapple with increased scrutiny over insider trading. Tools built by Chainalysis for Polymarket’s cryptocurrency-based exchange include a detection model ‘designed to surface patterns consistent with insider knowledge in prediction markets,’ Polymarket said on Thursday. Other tools will produce evidence for law enforcement and regulators, and provide increased protection against cybersecurity threats.”

• DraftKings movement:

  

  Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_

  Signs of life at DraftKings-owned prediction market exchange Railbird. First publicly disclosed CFTC filing of 2026. Encompasses "Self-Clearing Member Agreement and FCM Member Agreement."

  

  6:24 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 5.61K Views

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• Gemini is also now a DCO:

  

  Cameron Winklevoss@cameron

  We are excited to announce that @Gemini has received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the @CFTC. This license allows us to act as a clearinghouse for regulated derivatives trading, including prediction markets. This approval follows our approval last

  1:16 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 55.4K Views

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  43 Replies · 56 Reposts · 465 Likes

  • We are excited to announce that Gemini has received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the CFTC. This license allows us to act as a clearinghouse for regulated derivatives trading, including prediction markets.

  • This approval follows our approval last December for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, which allowed us to launch Gemini Predictions. Now, with our DCO, the predictions that trade on our DCM will soon clear through our DCO.

  • This marks a major milestone in our marketplace expansion. In addition to our crypto spot marketplace, Gemini now has a full-stack, end-to-end marketplace for predictions as well as futures, options, and more. This is also a major building block for our super app, where users will be able to fulfill their existing and future financial needs all in one place. Onward!

  • More coverage from CoinDesk.

• Kalshi makes Time’s 100-most influential companies: But why are they calling it “betting”?

  

  
  

📖 Everything else you should know/read

• EKG Report: California, Texas Drive 43% Of Sports Event Contract Volume (InGame): “Well, much like reports of Mark Twain’s death, cannibalization fears might also be exaggerated. At least that’s the takeaway from the newly released April Prediction Market Monitor from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG). According to its data, 69% of all sports contracts are originating in the 19 states where there is no legal online sports betting, with an eye-popping 43% of it coming from two states: California and Texas.”

• How Kalshi can help the Federal Reserve (The Economist): “Americans love a flutter. Trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket, their favourite peer-to-peer bookies, surpassed $50bn last year, up from $16bn the year before. Most of the bets concern sports. But punters also place wagers on everything from actual weather to the political climate and, to economists’ delight, economic conditions. Bets on things like official gdp growth, payrolls and inflation still account for just 1-2% of trading on the two platforms. However, they are now large enough to attract one giant whale—the Federal Reserve.”

• Follow Sportico’s Dan Bernstein on Twitter for nuggets like this:

  

  Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_

  Strike CEO Jack Mallers at Bitcoin Conference: "I personally believe too much in Bitcoin and too much about how it can change the world and do right for society to list other crypto coins to encourage people to do sports gambling via prediction markets."

  9:37 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 3.04K Views

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• You definitely need to watch this:

  

  Molly Ploofkins@Mollyploofkins

  Rubio: 'This dog is a pain in the ass' Triumph: 'Just tell me what country you're attacking next, I'm trying to win some money on Polymarket'

  12:31 PM · Apr 30, 2026 · 2.37M Views

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  156 Replies · 2.04K Reposts · 27.1K Likes