DraftKings and FanDuel are gearing up to offer Super Bowl parlays — or “combos,” as the prediction market industry insists on calling them — on their prediction market platforms.
CME Group — which is partnered with both companies — filed self-certifications with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for “Pro Football Championship Combos” this week.
That means some sort of parlay offering could be live at both FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions before the Super Bowl.
The news was first reported by InGame.
Presumably the parlays will be pre-built groupings of bets, rather than customizable parlays that are a staple of both sportsbooks and now Kalshi-powered prediction markets. But we’ll have to wait and see until the offering is actually live.
An example of such a combo would be:
A team to win
A touchdown scorer
Over or under on total points
CME also self-certified markets based on the Grammys, the Olympics, and hockey puck lines this week.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have seen muted adoption in their early weeks:
DraftKings launched earlier in 38 states, including offering sports markets in states where it doesn’t operate a sportsbook. According to Sensor Tower data, DraftKings has had 50,000 downloads in the App Store in the trailing 30 days. It has risen as high as No. 15 in free sports apps on championship Sunday in the NFL.
FanDuel launched late last year in five states, and more recently expanded to 18 states for sports and 50 states for other types of markets. It has recently peaked in the low 200s among free sports apps in the App Store.
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Prediction markets roundup
Coinbase now live in all 50 states: The crypto platform announced its foray into prediction markets last month, and Coinbase was already listing at least some of Kalshi’s markets with some cohort of users. It was not immediately clear how limited the rollout was to date, or how much changed today.
Tweets from Coinbase and its CEO:
Coinbase 🛡️@coinbaseOut: Odds set by the house. In: Price set by the crowd. Now there's a new way to trade your takes. Prediction markets are live in all 50 states on Coinbase. Trade any real-world outcomes across sports, politics, culture and more.6:41 PM · Jan 28, 2026 · 250K Views119 Replies · 65 Reposts · 474 Likes
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrongPrediction markets are the ultimate form of truth seeking. When there’s skin in the game, the output is far more reliable. Everything else is biased by someone's agenda. I think we’ll look back at prediction markets as a breakthrough in how we discover truth in the world.
Coinbase 🛡️ @coinbaseOut: Odds set by the house. In: Price set by the crowd. Now there's a new way to trade your takes. Prediction markets are live in all 50 states on Coinbase. Trade any real-world outcomes across sports, politics, culture and more.7:23 PM · Jan 28, 2026 · 160K Views238 Replies · 133 Reposts · 1.15K LikesMore from Decrypt: All of Kalshi’s markets are accessible through Coinbase, said Toni Gemayel, head of prediction markets at Coinbase, who added that the firm will be closely watching the response from users.
“We measure for success in several ways,” he told Decrypt. “Trade volume will be a great indicator of user interest as a whole, but we also want to see how they’re using prediction markets. We believe that this is an opportunity for traders to hedge against risk in a way that was previously inaccessible to them. We’re eager to provide a greater breadth of contracts, and to understand how our users value them.”
COIN 0.00%↑ was down slightly on Wednesday.
Kalshi’s Relevance to Real-World Moments (Morning Consult polling):
Kalshi is the platform people think of when news, policy, or economic events are unfolding and expectations are actively shifting. The brand is strongly associated with interpreting real-world events, reacting to market-moving information, and applying knowledge to anticipate outcomes. Kalshi is not primarily a sports or entertainment betting brand — it is recalled when people want to understand how real-world uncertainty is likely to resolve.
It’s certainly notable that Kalshi isn’t considered a sports betting brand — at least per Morning Consult — even though roughly 90% of activity on the platform is sports.
Millions in bets ride on what Trump will say, do or invade next (The Washington Post): “Betting on political events on prediction markets has grown sharply in recent months. There is $129 million at stake on political markets on Kalshi, the company said. About 370,000 people are staking more than $90 million on politics at Polymarket, which lacks regulatory approval to serve American bettors, according to a Washington Post analysis of data provided by Dune Analytics.”
“Many of those wagers hinge on actions by President Donald Trump or his administration, including whom he will name as the next Federal Reserve chairman, whether the United States will strike Iran in the next six months, and even the words Trump might say in his State of the Union address next month.”
Ilhan Omar Was Attacked. Polymarket Traders Are Betting On the Details. (Barron’s): “U.S. Rep Ilhan Omar was speaking at a Minnesota town hall on Tuesday night when a man lunged from the audience and sprayed her with a syringe containing an unknown substance. Within hours of the attack, Polymarket traders began trading on the event. Event contracts on the prediction-market platform ask: ‘Ilhan Omar attack staged?’ and ‘What was Ilhan Omar sprayed with?’ As of early Wednesday afternoon, more than $500,000 had been traded on the two questions. The contract asking if it was a staged attack is featured at the top of Polymarket’s website.”
Kalshi Fed Forecasts Are as Good as Wall Street’s, Study Says (Bloomberg, paywall): “Kalshi, the booming platform that churns out predictions on everything from the Super Bowl to US elections, is showing early promise as an accurate forecaster of Federal Reserve policy and economic data, a new study finds. When it comes to predicting interest-rate decisions, Kalshi is “roughly consistent” with professionals such as those surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to a working paper authored by three economists, including one from the Fed. In a notable case, the prediction market even outperformed the pros when the central bank delivered a surprise, jumbo-sized cut. The paper, which has not yet been peer reviewed, arrives ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Kalshi Needed a Bigger Win from the Mamdani Race (Bloomberg): “New York City’s mayoral race was an ad campaign made in heaven for prediction market Kalshi Inc., with flashy billboards in Times Square, on subway trains and at street corners mapping the unlikely rise of Zohran Mamdani. Less successful is the platform’s study of minute-by-minute pricing of that race to test one of the main claimed benefits of prediction markets — that they promote better decision-making by aggregating the wisdom of crowds with more accuracy and precision than polls, expert opinion or financial markets.”
“Unfortunately, Kalshi’s study does not support its promise, despite its claim that “the rapid incorporation of polling data and especially behavioral voting data demonstrates that markets efficiently price political information when it arrives.” That doesn’t mean prediction markets will not help decision makers but, at least in the case of Kalshi and the 2025 NYC mayoral election, its prices were not efficient enough to interpret events in minutes or evaluate other sources of information.”
I wrote about the primary a few times, and Cuomo was the favorite at Kalshi before polls closed. I am not one to do a research paper on the topic, but I can tell you that Kalshi moved the goalposts from “called it for Mamdani ahead of time” to “called it first” after results started coming in.
Prediction market trade group takes out a full-page ad in the Washington Post: It seems to be taking a thinly veiled shot at Polymarket, which is not a part of the group:
Coalition for Prediction Markets@PredictActionDon't conflate American regulated prediction markets with unregulated, offshore markets. Full page ad in @washingtonpost today.
6:06 PM · Jan 28, 2026 · 11.5K Views6 Replies · 5 Reposts · 35 LikesPrediction markets group begins 7-figure PR blitz after suspicious Maduro trade sparks insider-trading concerns (Business Insider): “A spokesperson for the coalition told Business Insider the ad is the “opening salvo” in a coming PR blitz pushing for the codification of federal regulation for prediction markets — a key goal for the companies, as regulators in some states seek to clamp down on the burgeoning industry.”
“The coalition plans to spend seven figures in the coming months in coordination with its government relations outreach,” the spokesperson said.
Mizuho upgrades Circle shares outlook citing Polymarket’s use of USDC for settlement (The Block): “Mizuho Securities has reversed course on Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), saying Wednesday that Polymarket’s growing popularity could drive the company’s shares higher.”
“For Polymarket, all bets are settled in USDC, meaning Polymarket’s growth will directly fuel USDC growth,” analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins wrote. “We anticipate momentum in 2026 will continue for prediction markets, translating into USDC market cap growth and incremental revenue for Circle.”
“Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, the world’s second-largest USD-pegged token in terms of market cap.”
Crypto.com readies for April delivery of Ninth Circuit oral arguments (SBC Americas): “The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) is hoping to consolidate its three separate lawsuits brought by Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood into one decision, which would all present oral arguments to the Ninth Circuit Court in April. The lawsuits center around sports event contracts in Nevada, resulting in contentious legal proceedings between the three prediction market companies and the NGCB. Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood are suing the NGCB after receiving cease and desist orders for offering sports event contracts in Nevada.”
CFTC and SEC harmonization event takes place tomorrow:
Mike Selig@ChairmanSeligI'm looking forward to joining @SECPaulSAtkins tomorrow at 2pm ET at @CFTC HQ to discuss our vision for a modernized, harmonized, and future-proof regulatory framework for the Crypto Capital of the World. With special guest moderator @EleanorTerrett.
CFTC @CFTC.@CFTC and SEC Reschedule Joint Event on Harmonization, U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era: https://t.co/8B4IeoyWkO7:00 PM · Jan 28, 2026 · 53.2K Views23 Replies · 85 Reposts · 443 LikesBlackRock’s Rieder takes the lead in race for Trump’s Fed chair pick (Axios): “Traders on major betting exchanges now assign top odds to BlackRock executive Rick Rieder to be President Trump’s Fed chair nominee.”
“Driving the news: Rieder had 47% odds Monday morning on Polymarket, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh second at 28%. Rieder’s odds were below 3% on Jan. 12.”
National HBPA Conference to Talk AI, Prediction Markets (Bloodhorse): “Artificial intelligence on the track and the emerging threats of prediction markets and wagering are among the salient topics to be discussed at the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association Conference March 3-7 in Hot Springs, Ark., at Oaklawn Park.”
“Is this interesting?: A candidate for senator in Virginia tweeted about Kalshi odds, and then deleted it.
Dustin Gouker@DustinGoukerThis tweet has now been deleted for some reason. John Wang effect, probably.
10:22 PM · Jan 27, 2026 · 2.55K Views1 Reply · 14 LikesMore on Kalshi’s DC office: I already included this in the newsletter this week, but there was also a full press release:
US federally regulated exchange Kalshi today announced the opening of a new office in DC and the hiring of John Bivona as its first Head of Federal Government Relations. The company is expanding its government relations efforts to promote responsible innovation in financial markets.
John Bivona has served for nearly two decades as a political strategist and advisor within every corner of political campaigns and the federal government. He served in the Biden Administration as the first White House Liaison at the Department of Homeland Security and was the first Chief of Staff for then Congressman Antonio Delgado (D-NY).
Bivona has helped elect Democrats at the Presidential, Senate, and House level. In 2018, he served as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Deputy National Political Director, where he advised and recruited candidates during the pivotal 2018 election that remade the House of Representatives. Most recently, Bivona launched Intersection Government Relations and Intersection Advocacy, where he has been advising campaigns, causes, and companies including Fortune 50 companies and high-growth startups.
Kalshi has ushered in a fundamental shift in consumer behavior, where people have gone from passive watchers to active participants in what’s happening around them in the world. What drew Bivona away from his campaign experience to the company was the opportunity for Kalshi’s platform to help institutions and policymakers rebuild trust with the American people, in addition to the company’s regulatory-first ethos.
“Kalshi spent four years getting regulatory approval before it even launched a product,” Bivona says. “It’s built the leading, most trusted prediction market platform, pioneering the category. At a time when people feel like our financial system is rigged against the everyday person, Kalshi levels the playing field and brings more public participation to the issues that people care about most.”
Bivona’s hire comes as Kalshi expands its footprint to DC, with a new office and plans to soon hire more talent from both sides of the aisle. Kalshi has also hired Blake Bee to lead its state policy efforts. Bee joins from Amazon, where he served as a Senior Manager of State and Local Public Policy and led engagement with state attorneys general. Before Amazon, he spent seven years at the National Association of Attorneys General, including as director of its Center for Leadership Development. Earlier in his career, Bee served more than eight years as executive counsel and Assistant Attorney General in the Mississippi Attorney General’s Office, overseeing legislative and public policy matters.
