SI Predict: New Global Prediction Market Is Launching, With Fuzzy Legality
New platform launches in Q2, apparently offering sports betting props nationwide, but outside of the auspices of the CFTC
A new prediction market platform is coming, with Sports Illustrated’s name on it.
UK firm Galactic announced a partnership with Sports Illustrated on Wednesday to launch SI Predict, a “prediction platform that deepens fan engagement by
allowing them to interact directly with lifestyle moments adjacent to live sports events.”
The release made it sound like SI Predict is not a full-on sports betting offering like Kalshi has rolled out on its own platform and then expanded in a deal with Robinhood. But it is going to be offering proposition bets in an exchange based on statistics and outcomes, but not spreads, moneylines, etc. I’ll get to that in a bit, but more from the press release:
SI Predict will offer both die-hard fans and casual spectators a dynamic and interactive experience where users can engage with real-time predictions, trade on the outcomes of trends and themes around major global sporting events, and gain deeper insights into public sentiment in a seamless, user-optimized experience. This endeavor marks a significant evolution in sports, transforming fandom into active participation.
“Sports Illustrated has always been about engaging fans in the stories that shape the world of sports,” says Dan Dienst, Executive Vice Chairman, Authentic Brands Group, and Chairman, Sports Illustrated. …
Stuart Stott, CEO of Galactic, comments, “Sports viewership is no longer a one-way conversation. Fans want to be involved, and they want their opinions to have weight. SI Predict revolutionizes sports engagement, transforming it from passive viewership to an active, influential forum.”
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What else do we know so far?
The launch of SI Predict is targeted for Q2.
You can see the landing page for the site/app here.
SI Predict will employ a “regulatory compliant framework” but will not actually be beholden to any regulatory regime:
More from Bloomberg on this front: “While SI Predict will comply with regulations put in place by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the US, ‘as a non-custodial platform, it does not need to be regulated,’ Stott said in an emailed response to questions.
Gambling or not gambling?
Galactic says the platform operates “without the complexities of gambling nor a focus on outcomes or traditional game-specific propositions found at sportsbooks.”
Again, pulling from Bloomberg’s reporting:
The platform’s wagers aren’t concerned with the outcome of a specific sports event, but rather on adjacent gambles, such as whether Taylor Swift will attend a certain game. SI Predict’s products “are akin to futures contracts,” Stott said.
However, from an accompanying video outlining the product, it’s quite clear they are offering props that you could find at any sportsbook (albeit peer-to-peer and not against the house), at least in part.
See below for screenshots, but examples are:
Will there be a passing touchdown in the first half?
Will a quarterback throw for over 300 yards?
Will the pole-sitter win the next IndyCar event?
Is that gambling from a legal standpoint? I am not a lawyer, so I’ll stop short of saying yes or no on that. All I can tell you is that 1. It’s definitely gambling from a user standpoint and 2. you can bet these things at sportsbooks.
It’s at least in question if the other markets outside of sports are legal, but they are probably of less concern to regulators and others. I would be surprised if there’s no pushback at the state level on all of this.
Whole video here:
SI was not a great brand for sports betting
Will this effort work? I guess we’ll find out how good Galactic is at standing this up.
Sports Illustrated was an unsuccessful sportsbook brand in the United States and failed to gain any traction in the few states where it operated before it shuttered. It’s not clear that SI has meaningful value in getting people to sign up and play at a real-money gaming product in the US. And it has even less value internationally.