Prediction Markets Have Big US Ambitions. For Now, They’re Mostly Sports Betting Exchanges.
Roundup: Fanatics tried to block Polymarket executive hire; Tradeweb signs deal with Kalshi to bring data to institutional investors; Polymarket acquires API startup Dome.
I’m tired.
Mostly I’m tired of people telling me prediction markets in the US would be huge today without sports betting, or sports event contracts, or whatever you’d like to call it.
Can prediction markets be about way more than sports betting in the long term while being almost entirely about sports in the short term? Yes! Both things can be true!
But there’s just not much empirical or anecdotal evidence that we’d be having the same conversations about prediction markets right now sans sports.
Here are some facts and observations about the US industry as currently situated:
Kalshi trading volume in 2025 was almost 87% sports event contracts. That’s despite the fact that sports didn’t launch until later in January. (Kalshi — via its own site/app and partners like Robinhood — accounts for the lion’s share of prediction market activity in the US right now.)
Put another way, total volume via Kalshi last year was $24 billion. Only a little more than $3 billion of that came on things other than sports.
If you narrow the window to the final four months of the year, which roughly lines up with the start of football season, the percentage of volume that is sports increases to 90%.
Crypto.com recently launched a standalone app for prediction markets. Is that app focused on sports first or “everything else?” From the press release (emphasis added): “OG provides sports fans access to a most comprehensive range of CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as well as additional event contracts across financial, political, cultural, and entertainment events.”
And here’s the CEO of OG upon launch: “Sports are the natural hub of prediction markets, and we see a massive opportunity to provide fans with an all-encompassing platform where it pays to be right.”
When we go to other prediction markets, what are we confronted with? The first category is generally “sports,” with sports markets surfacing more often than anything else on an initial screen:
Gemini
Coinbase
Robinhood
Crypto.com probably comes the closest to emphasizing everything else over sports:
Six different sports betting and fantasy sports companies have rushed products to market to take advantage of the opportunity. And two sweepstakes sports exchanges (Novig and ProphetX) are trying to pivot to federal regulation, with the latter raising $75 million just this week.
Legal cases around the country are almost entirely about sports event contracts (except Nevada, which has also taken issue with election betting). I highly doubt we would have seen even close to the same legal and regulatory pushback on prediction markets if there weren’t sports event contracts.
People argue, correctly, that Polymarket’s international site is far less dependent on sports. But that’s not technically even serving the US! It’s banned on American soil (although Americans can use it with a VPN). But even still, sports is the largest single category at Polymarket in the trailing year, accounting for 38% of volume.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s US app has only offered sports event contracts since it launched last year. And the app is in the sports section of the App Store.
My question is this: If you think sports at prediction markets aren’t that important, why is the land-grab and focus almost entirely on sports right now?
It’s not clear we would be having any of the same discussions about prediction markets without sports. We certainly would not be experiencing the same explosive growth on the US-regulated side if we didn’t have sports event contracts.
I think everyone should be able to acknowledge that sports is an absolutely massive reason why prediction markets are as relevant as they are at this moment in time. Instead, we get the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission writing (and talking) at length about prediction markets without even mentioning the word “sports.”
I know that the founders of both Polymarket and Kalshi are true believers in the power and utility of non-sports markets. At the end of the day, I am too.
But right now, sports is king. Someone is going to have to prove that they can turn all of this into more than sports betting in the US.
I believe someone can and will, eventually. That day just hasn’t arrived, at least not in the regulated US prediction market industry.
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Prediction markets roundup
Inside Fanatics’s Battle to Block a Polymarket Hire (Front Office Sports): “Polymarket announced the hiring of former Fanatics executive Ari Borod on Thursday. Behind the scenes, Fanatics sued to stop the prediction-market platform from poaching Borod, although the two sides eventually agreed to settle. While Borod has now been announced as Polymarket’s president of sports business development, unsealed documents from the suit obtained by Front Office Sports reveal new information about Fanatics’s apparent plans to purchase an exchange and a claim that Fanatics founder Michael Rubin and betting CEO Matt King are personally invested in Kalshi. …”
In addition, Borod said: “Plaintiffs make sweeping, non-specific, and false allegations that Borod led Fanatics’ efforts to ‘take steps to engage in the acquisition and ownership of an exchange and clearinghouse.’
Full filing in the link.
Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradeweb Strikes Deal With Kalshi (Bloomberg): “Electronic trading platform Tradeweb Markets Inc. signed a deal to bring Kalshi Inc.’s prediction markets to more institutional investors. Tradeweb, known for its fixed-income offerings, will start showing real-time prices for Kalshi’s event-based contracts and distribute that data to its users. It’s also considering adding trading capabilities for prediction markets down the line, according to Chief Executive Officer Billy Hult.”
Press release: Tradeweb Markets Inc., a leading global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, facilitating more than $2.6 trillion in notional value traded on average per day and Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market, today announced a strategic partnership. The companies will collaborate with the goal to expand institutional access to Kalshi’s prediction market data and analytics and advance market infrastructure for prediction markets trading to institutional investors through Tradeweb’s global electronic trading platform. Tradeweb has also made a minority investment in Kalshi.
As institutional participants increasingly seek forward-looking, data-driven signals to help manage risk, prediction markets are rapidly becoming an invaluable source of signal for investors looking to navigate complex market dynamics. Through this strategic partnership, Tradeweb aims to combine its global institutional distribution, track record of shaping institutional markets, and electronic trading capabilities with Kalshi’s real-time event-driven data and leadership in prediction markets. Together, the companies aim to integrate probabilistic, forward-looking risk signals directly into core trading workflows used by Tradeweb’s more than 3,000 institutional clients, designed to deliver greater transparency, execution efficiency, and actionable intelligence across global macro markets.
Billy Hult, CEO of Tradeweb, said: “Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively. As a leading global operator of electronic marketplaces across asset classes, Tradeweb has invested in Kalshi based on our belief that the institutional trading stack will soon evolve to pair high-quality event data with modern market structure. Together, we’re positioned to deliver prediction markets intelligence to clients and, over time, build the prediction markets trading infrastructure that meets the standards of our institutional community.”
As the first step in the collaboration, Tradeweb and Kalshi seek to deliver an integrated data experience that incorporates Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities and market data directly into Tradeweb’s rates and credit marketplaces, including UI, APIs, and data-download tools.
The companies plan to co-develop new institutional-grade analytics utilizing both Kalshi’s event probabilities and Tradeweb’s existing pricing, liquidity, and macro-intelligence datasets, enabling institutional participants to analyze unique market signals inclusive of new forecasting, risk management, and pricing models and incorporate them into trading strategies.
Tradeweb and Kalshi will also explore the development of an institutional-focused portal for event contracts, combining Tradeweb’s central role in macro risk trading and expertise in market design with Kalshi’s preeminent depth across macroeconomic and policy outcomes.
Leveraging Kalshi’s advanced prediction markets platform, this initiative will focus on providing access to standardized event contracts including macroeconomic releases, Fed policy, political elections, and other key policy outcomes, with Tradeweb acting as the institutional front end to this potential new marketplace.
Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder & CEO of Kalshi, said: “I witnessed the institutional demand for prediction markets firsthand ten years ago. Investors were trying to figure out how to price and manage risks related to Brexit and the upcoming election. Institutional adoption requires scale, regulation, trust, and substantial liquidity. Today, Kalshi has the scale, breadth of markets, and liquidity required to help institutions manage the risks they face. Partnering with Tradeweb will help us accelerate the adoption we are seeing.”
What happens on prediction platforms can steer traditional markets, NYSE chief says (CoinDesk): “Prediction markets are starting to play a role in how traditional financial markets move, New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin said Wednesday at the World Liberty forum in Palm Beach.”
“‘It was very clear for us… that prediction markets [were being used] as an input to traditional markets,’ she said at the event hosted at Mar-a-Lago, pointing to a moment during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when S&P futures spiked unexpectedly. According to Martin, the move was later explained by crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket having shown Donald Trump as the likely winner before other sources did.”
‘Financial Losses, Negative Publicity’: DraftKings Outlines Prediction Market Risks (Covers): “DraftKings’ expansion into prediction markets is becoming one of the most legally and financially sensitive elements of its business, according to a 2025 financial reporting disclosure.”
“There are currently numerous lawsuits challenging the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, with a specific focus on sports event contracts,” the company wrote in its 2025 10-K filing document, a legally mandated, comprehensive look at all publicly traded companies’ finances and potential business risks.
Polymarket buys fresh prediction market API startup Dome, marking second official acquisition (The Block): “Onchain predictions market provider Polymarket has acquired the relatively fresh startup Dome for an undisclosed sum, according to an announcement on Thursday. Dome, part of startup accelerator Y Combinator’s Fall 2025 cohort, offers a unified API for prediction markets. In other words, it allows developers to build apps, bots, dashboards, or trading tools that work across platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms.”
“The startup raised $500,000 from YC and a $4.7 million seed, according to the X bio of co-founder Kunal Roy, who was also a founding engineer at Alchemy. Kurush Dubash, the other listed co-founder, is also a founding engineer at Alchemy, according to his YC bio.”
“We’re excited to bring our focus on speed, reliability, and dev experience to the world’s largest prediction market!” Dome wrote on X.
Polymarket@PolymarketWe’re committed to creating the best developer experience in prediction markets. Building a world class experience requires world class talent… Welcome to Polymarket, @getdomeapi.
4:00 PM · Feb 19, 2026 · 86.9K Views91 Replies · 31 Reposts · 459 Likes
What Is Polymarket Doing in Panama? (Sportico): “When the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) barred Polymarket’s international exchange from the United States in 2022, the New York City-headquartered prediction market company ceded “operator” responsibilities for the exchange to Adventure One QSS, a Panama-based entity created just a few months earlier.”
“The CFTC settlement focused on Polymarket not letting U.S. customers bet on its platform, and Polymarket hasn’t explicitly said transferring its international exchange’s operations to a company in another country was part of the understanding rather than a precautionary measure. Since then, Polymarket, legally known as Blockratize Inc., has provided few details about Adventure One outside a notice at the bottom of its website that says, ‘the international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently.’”
“Adventure One’s website hasn’t been updated since it was first archived by the Wayback Machine in 2023. It features only a homepage with two lines of text. One reads ‘Web3 Development and Research,’ and the other says, ‘We’re a passionate team building and researching the pioneering use cases for blockchain technology.’”
CLICK THROUGH AND READ THIS, IT IS GOOD JOURNALISM
Volume Doesn’t Pay the Bills (LinkedIn, by Alan Casey, Chief Commercial Officer, TXODDS): “Prediction markets are having a moment. Capital is flowing in. Platforms are scaling quickly. Adoption is accelerating. Growth is visible. How these businesses make money sustainably is not. What ultimately determines who survives isn’t volume. It’s win pool management.”
‘Bam, everything’s gone’: Two young men describe losing thousands on Kalshi and Polymarket (Business Insider): “Lorenzo Miro San Diego first learned about Polymarket after seeing the prediction market on an episode of “South Park” last fall. His first wager: $498 on the University of Houston beating Oregon State in a college football game. He netted more than $100 after the odds shifted further in Houston’s favor. For the next two months, things didn’t work out as well. He lost money, on net, on a series of bets related to professional football and basketball. He also began dabbling in cryptocurrency price movement wagers — and lost money on those, too. In total, he lost more than $1,700. … In February, San Diego filed a lawsuit against Polymarket in hopes of recovering his losses. He said he managed to stop on his own accord, partly by switching his sports bets to an app where he doesn’t use real money.”
Opinion: Utah’s anti-gambling laws are in danger (Deseret News): “Finally, Utah politicians are beginning to speak out about prediction markets and the faux gambling companies that hide under the umbrella of a system built to enable commodities trading. These, if not stopped soon, will turn Utah into a place where anti-gambling laws become less than mere suggestions and where the social ills tied to gambling have free rein. But it could go further than that. They could invite interference that has national or even international ramifications.”
Kalshi prediction market data earns vote of confidence in Fed paper (Axios): “Researchers hailed Kalshi‘s prediction market data in a new Federal Reserve paper, delivering a significant vote of confidence in the emerging platform as it weaves its way into the economic mainstream. …”
“Dustin Gouker, a gambling industry consultant, said papers like this Fed report help Kalshi’s cause: ‘Right now, I think the most important currency for prediction markets is legitimacy, whether that comes from the CFTC, or partnerships, or data that shows that prediction markets are more than just gambling on things,’ Gouker tells Axios in an email.”
Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi (The Verge, podcast): “Prediction markets will let you bet on just about anything, from how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week to the next president of the United States, with predictions sometimes showing shockingly (or suspiciously) spot-on accuracy. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Copland has even claimed that prediction markets are ‘the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.’”
“However, these platforms blur the lines — in terms of both function and regulation — between gambling and stock trading. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said on The Vergecast, ‘All of the lines between trading, speculating, [and] gambling are just being completely torn apart.’”
The Problems With Prediction Markets (PBS, 1A podcast): “Now, the federal government is putting its thumb on the scale, arguing prediction markets should be looked at as a financial exchange, not a betting platform. This paves the way for their further expansion, not regulation. What does the future hold for companies like these?”
Kalshi wins a preliminary injunction in Tennessee case: Click through for more insights from Andrew.
Andrew Kim@akhoya87Note that this decision disagrees with Nevada (on whether sports contracts are swaps) and Maryland (on whether there’s conflict and obstacle preemption). Reasonable minds are going to differ on these questions, which is why we’re probably heading to SCOTUS.
Andrew Kim @akhoya87And the rollercoaster continues. Kalshi obtains a preliminary injunction in Tennessee.12:04 AM · Feb 20, 2026 · 42 Views1 LikeCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom tells reporters to look into Kalshi on insider trading: And it was shared by Kalshi’s CEO. Click through for the video:
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_Thank you for the shoutout @GovPressOffice and congrats on being in the lead for Dem nominee on Kalshi. Unlike some competitors, Kalshi is federally regulated: 1. It would be illegal for you to trade on this (that would be market manipulation). 2. You would be immediately1:53 AM · Feb 20, 2026 · 6.9K Views11 Replies · 11 Reposts · 58 LikesWhy Risk-Loving Options Traders Are Flocking to Prediction Markets (WSJ): “Individual investors who embraced high-risk, high-reward stock bets in recent years are now flocking to prediction markets. For the cohort that piled into options—which give the right to buy or sell a stock at a set price, in a certain time frame—prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket offer a vast range of wagers, in a ‘yes or no’ format. That makes prediction markets easier to navigate than the options market for certain kinds of bets, said Andrew Courtney, a former Susquehanna International Group trader who writes a Substack about prediction markets.”
“For example, an options trader who wants to wager that the unemployment rate in February’s jobs report will be above a certain percentage would need to decide on stocks or assets to hinge that bet on, determine how those prices might move in a given time, and then decide whether to exercise or trade the options.”
He writes a good Substack!
The head of product at Twitter:
Nikita Bier@nikitabierThe world without prediction market spam on X.
8:52 AM · Feb 19, 2026 · 453K Views1.84K Replies · 222 Reposts · 5.99K LikesA Substack with Bradley Tusk:
The Polymarket of the day: Since Polymarket now has a native integration on Substack, I feel compelled to include one every day:
