NFL Exec On Prediction Markets: 'It's Innovative' And 'We're Interested' In FOS Interview
Roundup: Polymarket US finally has a Super Bowl market; Kalshi withdraws 'extortion' claim in Bloomberg story; Sporttrade applies with CFTC; BetMGM says prediction markets aren't hurting business.
NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller talked at length about the league’s stance on prediction markets on Wednesday at the Super Bowl with Front Office Sports. And it sounded more positive than past NFL commentary on the nascent industry.
Here’s the key bit as shared by Front Office Sports editor in chief Daniel Roberts on Twitter:
“It’s innovative. That marketplace is dynamic... There’s no question we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months... We’re interested, of course... but we’re also going to be cautious.”
The overall tenor of the conversation was one of caution and did not sound like the NFL is imminently going to get into the prediction markets business. But if we’re reading tea leaves, Miller’s comments sound far more positive than the tone of Commissioner Roger Goodell a couple of months ago:
On the predictive markets… for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now.
We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide: Is this something we want to do? The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.
Miller sent a letter to a Congressional committee in December that said, in part:
“Until such time that professional sports leagues and fans can be certain that effective game integrity and consumer protection measures can be enforced, sports-related events contracts should not be approved by the CFTC, and Congress should consider clarifying the definition of ‘gaming’ contracts in the prohibited categories of the Commodity Exchange Act.”
Since all of that commentary from the NFL, we’ve learned that the CFTC has no interest in materially reining in prediction markets, and appears to support sports event contracts. The new chair, Michael Selig, has said he wants new rules around the industry, something that the NFL may believe will address some of its concerns.
You can watch the whole thing here; the prediction markets segment starts around the five-minute mark:
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Prediction markets news roundup
Sporttrade Submits for Federal Exchange and Clearing Registration (press release): Sporttrade, a Philadelphia-based financial technology company, today announced submission of Designated Contract Market (“DCM”) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (“DCO”) applications with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”).
“Today marks the opening of an incredibly exciting chapter of the Sporttrade journey.” said Alex Kane, Founder and CEO. “The CFTC’s market-based regulatory framework enables Sporttrade to provide market participants an elevated level of efficiency, transparency, and consumer protection relative to what we’ve been able to offer to date.”
Since 2022, Sporttrade has been regulated as a state-licensed sports betting operator in five states; New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, and Virginia. Customers on the existing Sporttrade platform have come to expect quality service and tight spreads on an award winning platform.
“We had originally our technology under the assumption that the sports trading vertical would follow the trajectory of most other electronic markets, one towards efficiency and transparency powered by intermediation and institutional participation,” noted Kane. “Federal registration will thus allow us to finally unlock the full potential of our natively-built exchange, clearing, and broker technology in our pursuit to always put the customer first.”
More from Sportico: “Founded in 2018, Sporttrade connected the concept of prediction market exchanges with sports events well before Kalshi and Crypto.com. But Sporttrade executives believed state gaming commissions, not the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), were its only feasible regulator. It was a reasonable expectation, considering the CFTC opposed sports contracts before President Donald Trump’s second term. Sporttrade obtained gaming licenses to operate in five states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey and Virginia.”
Kalshi Claims ‘Extortion,’ Then Recants in Feud Over User Losses (Bloomberg, paywall): “It began innocuously enough. A stock analyst pulled data on betting results to argue that users of booming prediction markets were losing money faster than on traditional gambling apps. Then it spiraled. Kalshi Inc., the biggest US prediction market, told Bloomberg the analysis wasn’t just wrong. It was part of an “extortion” plot by the startup behind the data.”
The founder of Juice Reel, the small data outfit, stood by the numbers and said Kalshi’s allegations were a “complete fabrication.” It was Kalshi that had tried to pressure him to say the data was inaccurate, he said. Kalshi changed its tone hours later and said that while it continued to dispute the findings, “after further review, we don’t believe the intention was extortion.” Kalshi denied it pressured Juice Reel to repudiate the data.
Kalshi can certainly question the data if it wants. But the accusation of extortion is pretty wild!
Live Q&A: How Super Bowl Bets Pushed Prediction Markets Mainstream (Bloomberg): “From Super Bowl prop bets to political forecasts, prediction markets are having a breakout moment. Once a niche corner of online betting, they are now drawing record volumes and blurring the line between sports fandom, finance and forecasting. Bloomberg’s Anna Irrera speaks with reporters Justina Lee, Ira Boudway and Emily Nicolle to unpack its rapid global rise.”
CFTC Withdraws Event Contracts Rule Proposal and Staff Sports Event Contracts Advisory (Press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced it has withdrawn the notice of proposed rulemaking titled “Event Contracts” that published June 10, 2024. [See CFTC Press Release No. 8907-24] The CFTC does not intend to issue final rules with respect to the proposal.
Additionally, Commission staff has withdrawn CFTC Staff Letter 25-36, a Staff Advisory on Certain Contract Markets, issued Sept. 30, 2025 [See CFTC Press Release No. 9137-25].
“Today’s actions reflect the CFTC’s commitment to lawful innovation in our markets,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. “The 2024 event contracts proposal reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The Commission is withdrawing that proposal and will advance a new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act that promotes responsible innovation in our derivatives markets in line with Congressional intent.”
Chairman Selig also commended the staff’s withdrawal of its 2025 sports event contracts advisory.
“While intended to highlight litigation considerations, the advisory inadvertently created confusion and uncertainty for our market participants” Chairman Selig said. “I look forward to working with staff on an event contracts rulemaking.”
This all just made this official, as Selig announced the moves last week.
Can we admire the turn of phrase “frolic into merit regulation”?
Polymarket finally adds Super Bowl betting: Some backstory here.
Polymarket also self-certified a bunch of new markets with the CFTC:
BetMGM says prediction markets have no impact: BetMGM reported its fiscal year results on Wednesday, and those numbers were very good. CEO Adam Greenblatt said this on a call about the results:
“We remain steadfast in support of state regulators, attorneys general, and Indian gaming entities that have really expressed serious concerns about prediction markets and how they circumvent the robust regulatory frameworks, responsible gambling requirements, and information sharing protocols built collaboratively and over many years by our industry partners….
“As far as the impact of prediction markets on our business today, we're not seeing a material adverse impact that could be specifically attributed to prediction markets.”
Crypto.com To Allow Users To Bet On Margin (InGame): “OG also plans to provide access to CDNA’s margin prediction contracts offering through Crypto.com’s federally licensed futures commission merchant,” the press release said. “This will be the first prediction markets platform to offer margin trading.”
“Brokers are generally required to make sure that traders understand the risks involved before they start trading with margin. While margin trading is common in the financial world, it is virtually unheard of in regulated sports betting, largely due to the potential risks of allowing a bettor to lose more than they deposit.”
“The use of borrowed funds to fund traditional sportsbook accounts is heavily restricted in many legal sports betting states, and there is no state where regulated sportsbooks can offer direct margin trades in the way that financial institutions do.”
Christie lauds NFL for advertising ban on prediction markets at the Super Bowl (iGB): “As the former governor of New Jersey, Christie helped bring the Super Bowl to MetLife Stadium in 2014. Now a strategic advisor for the American Gaming Association, Christie is a leader in the trade group’s bruising fight against prediction market sites concerning the regulation of sports event contracts.”
“The NFL is standing up for the regulated markets across this country that are protecting their fans,” Christie told iGB. “They are saying the integrity of our sport and the protection of our fans trumps any type of money that we can make from these commercials.”
Chris Christie: Prediction markets need to be regulated carefully (Morning Joe, video): “Former Gov. and American Gaming Association strategic consultant, Chris Christie, discusses the AGA’s stance on prediction markets being used as sports bettors.”
Here’s a cool new free tool for tracking prediction markets data.
The Polymarket hub on Yahoo Finance is now live:
More from DeFi Rate.
Prediction market cannibalization minimal in Missouri sports betting launch?:
Geoff Zochodne@GeoffZochodneNote from Jefferies says the Missouri sports betting launch looked like "one of the strongest new state launches in recent years." MO's $111 in handle per adult in Dec. was more than NC ($76), KY ($81), and MA ($98). Also, prediction market cannibalization looked minimal:
1:51 PM · Feb 3, 2026 · 35.8K Views2 Reposts · 20 LikesLegal updates in Nevada:
Coinbase:
Andrew Kim@akhoya87Here's Coinbase v. Nevada. Coinbase has asked for a TRO to block the Nevada state court from issuing a preliminary injunction. At this point, the prediction-markets cases are turning into a FedJur exam.
paulgrewal.eth @iampaulgrewalToday we also went to NV federal court to stop this violation of federal law. Congress gave @CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over these listed contracts, and it's Congress that calls the shots. https://t.co/e6LRsuxWFX 2/34:23 AM · Feb 5, 2026 · 313 Views4 LikesNew amicus brief from a former CFTC chairman and others:
Chris Giancarlo@giancarloMKTSAmicus brief we filed last night in 9th Circuit Court in Crypto.com v. Nevada explaining @CFTC “exclusive jurisdiction” over #eventcontracts and its robust regulatory framework and potential for market uncertainty created by district court’s approach that #Congress
8:00 PM · Feb 4, 2026 · 2.87K Views2 Replies · 10 Reposts · 27 Likes
How Gambling Addiction Is Changing in a Polymarket World (Nautilus): “They’ll say prediction is based on your own research, it’s a skill-based activity. These companies say, “We’re not gambling, we’re not gaming, we’re investing, we’re financial. We’re allowing the little guy to get in on making money off his or her knowledge about human events. You can invest in anything you want and potentially be rewarded for it.” But they don’t talk about the risk of losing your investment. And these markets aren’t regulated like casinos. The bottom line is, there’s no doubt every single day we’re starting to get more calls from men and women who are adversely impacted by these financially risky experiences.”
Vitalik Buterin Calls for Inclusion of Prediction Markets, DAOs in Creator Coin Ecosystem (Yahoo Finance): “A combination of prediction market mechanisms and decentralized autonomous organizations may be key to improving the growth and utility of creator coins, according to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Tweeting one of his characteristic mini-essays on Sunday, Buterin offered his take on how he “would do creator coins,” which he suggested do not currently match Substack in terms of providing meaningful incentives to creators.”
