NFL Commissioner On Prediction Markets: 'That’s Not Something We’re About To Enter Into'
Roundup: Fanatics launches its prediction market; Kalshi sues Connecticut after cease-and-desist.
The NFL isn’t ready to dive into prediction markets, Commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday.
Goodell spoke about prediction markets at the Genius Sports Investor Day alongside CEO Mark Locke. The NFL is a partner of and investor in Genius, which is a sports data provider.
Here’s the key bit:
On the predictive markets… for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now.
We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide: Is this something we want to do? The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.
Goodell’s comments come after the NHL announced deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and with speculation about what other major US leagues might do around prediction markets.
Here’s the full transcript of the discussion of prediction markets, which was broached (quite purposefully, it appears) by Locke:
Locke: And I think the interesting thing at the moment is to look at what’s going on with prediction markets. You know, that space is evolving very, very rapidly. But I think it’s fair to say that regulation is not clear. So, I think it makes it very difficult for the leagues to engage in that without that regulatory framework.
And I think what we’ve learned from what’s happened with DFS back in 2017. This will eventually normalize, regulation will come in. And ultimately, that will come through partnerships with the NFL, through partnerships with the regulators, to build that trusted ecosystem. And to create the guardrails, which ultimately protects the integrity of the sport, and to protect the consumer.
And so, from my point of view, when we think about it, the opportunities that this new evolution, and this increasing TAM present, Genius is very, very well placed to take advantage of it. And no matter how that regulation evolves, whether it’s very rapidly, or slowly, or fragmented, and we talk a lot about this later, we do a bit of a teach-in session on prediction markets, because we think they’re fairly misunderstood. Genius is extremely well placed to win in every single outcome.
Goodell: I’ll just add one element to that, because integrity, obviously, is incredibly important to us, particularly when it comes to sports betting, because that’s the backbone of our success, is making sure that whatever you see play out on the field, is not being influenced by any outside influences, and we’ve seen that in sports, and it’s a risk that’s out there.
So our partners help with this. So the ability for you to help us maintain that integrity and use the technology to do that is really valuable to us.
On the predictive markets, I’d go the same way that you go, Mark, for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint. There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now.
We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide: Is this something we want to do? The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.
And if we see it play out in a way that works for us, whether that’s private equity and ownership of the NFL, our teams, or whether it’s technology issues and sports betting, and/or the predictive markets, that’s how we’re going to play it.
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Prediction markets roundup
Fanatics beats FanDuel and DraftKings with a prediction markets launch: Fanatics Markets launched in ten states yesterday; here’s my newser at The Closing Line. Today it is launching in 14 more states, including California, Florida, and Texas.
Of those, perhaps the most interesting is Florida, a massive state that does have legal sports betting but only as a monopoly via Hard Rock Bet. Because of the Seminole Tribe’s compact with the state, other operators cannot serve Florida now. And while it’s at least possible that could change in the future via commercial agreements, that’s no guarantee. Clearly, sportsbooks would like access to Florida if they aren’t going to be able to offer their core product in the state. Hence, prediction markets. It’s a fair bet that Hard Rock and the tribe will be less-than-thrilled with this development, and it will be interesting to see if FanDuel and DraftKings press ahead here.
More from Sportico, speaking with Fanatics Betting & Gaming CEO Matt King:
“Anytime there’s a market that is this big that opens up, there’s going to be lots of capital that flows into it, and wherever there’s lots of capital, there will be a reasonably high level of stupidity that occurs,” King said. “Frankly, we’re just preparing for the stupid. The benefit we have is we’re a private business that’s focused on how we win over a 10-year period, not our next fundraise.
“We’ll strike the right balance of still being aggressive and making the most of being early in the market, but we’re going to avoid stupid. It’s a lot easier to do that once you’ve seen a rodeo.”
The app looks pretty good at launch and will be a more familiar user experience and interface to a casual sports bettor than Kalshi and Polymarket provide. Here’s the home screen (I am getting a location error in Oregon, where Fanatics Markets will be live this week). I haven’t yet found a setting to change this to American odds:
Here’s some of a press release from Fanatics: Fanatics, a leading global sports platform, today announced the launch of Fanatics Markets, a simple, user-friendly prediction market platform built to let people trade on the moments shaping sports, finance and culture. It gives them a safe and fun way to pick a side and potentially profit on the outcomes that matter most, whether that’s a sporting event, the Oscars, an election or a cultural moment. Fanatics Markets will introduce customers to markets and pricing offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.
Fanatics acquired Paragon Global Markets, LLC (“Paragon”) in July 2025. Paragon is federally registered as an introducing broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and is a member of the National Futures Association. The Fanatics Markets app is now available on iOS and Android. Fanatics Markets allows users to trade contracts across sports, finance, economics and politics, from whether a team will score more than 20 points to if the Fed will decrease interest rates.
Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered derivatives exchange provides institutional-grade infrastructure for Fanatics Markets to deliver a best-in-class customer experience. The result is a sleek, intuitive design that reflects real-time market sentiment launching in 24 states, including California, Texas, Florida and Washington.
“For years, Fanatics has given fans new ways to enhance their fandom through team merchandise, collectibles, tickets, gaming, events and more,” said Matt King, Chief Executive Officer, Fanatics Betting and Gaming. “Now, with Fanatics Markets, we’re giving fans a safe, and intuitive way to engage with the moments that move sports and culture, and to pick a side and profit along the way if their prediction is correct.”
“Crypto.com was the first to launch sports prediction markets, and our reach continues to grow through innovative partnerships with top-tier platforms such as Fanatics,” said Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com. “We could not be more proud to be the partner of choice for Fanatics, and together we will provide fans with a safe and compliant way to access prediction markets.”
Backed by Fanatics’ trusted brand and expansive ecosystem, Fanatics Markets is uniquely positioned to bring prediction markets to the mainstream and will launch in two phases. Phase One is live today with event contracts for sports, finance, economics and politics. Phase Two, which is launching early next year, will see Fanatics Markets expand into event contracts related to crypto, stocks/IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech/AI, movies and music.
Fanatics Markets will offer consumer protections and equip customers with tools to help manage exposure, trade responsibly and make informed trading decisions. The tools will allow customers to set deposit limits, session limits, timeouts and self-exclusion….
Connecticut becomes newest legal front for Kalshi, others: Prediction markets getting a cease-and-desist letter and filing a lawsuit is only the third item in my newsletter today? Some of that is because the pace of news is insane. Some of it is that we’re just throwing another lawsuit and C&D on the pile. (I will try to have my prediction markets legality tracker updated today.) Let’s get caught up:
The Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection Gaming Division sent cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com. Press release here:
“Only licensed entities may offer sports wagering in the state of Connecticut,” said DCP Commissioner Bryan T. Cafferelli. “None of these entities possess a license to offer wagering in our state, and even if they did, their contracts violate numerous other state laws and policies, including offering wagers to individuals under the age of 21.”
“These platforms are deceptively advertising that their services are legal, but our laws are clear,” said DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman. “They are also operating outside of a regulatory environment, posing a serious risk to consumers who may not realize wagers placed on these illegal platforms offer no protections for their money or information. A prediction market wager is not an investment.”
Prediction Market Platforms offering “Sports Events Contracts” are illegal and put consumers money and information at risk …
All three platforms are ordered to immediately cease and desist advertising, offering, promoting, or otherwise making available “sports event contracts” or any other form of unlicensed online gambling to Connecticut residents. DCP also ordered all three platforms to allow Connecticut residents to withdraw any funds currently held by the platforms.
Failure to comply may result in additional action including, but not limited to, civil penalties under the Connecticut Unfair Trade Practices Act and/or criminal penalties for violations of Connecticut’s gaming statutes.
Kalshi immediately sued the state in federal court, using more or less the same template it has used in the many other states where this same script has played out. This is in the same appellate circuit as a previous lawsuit filed by Kalshi in New York.
Complaint:
Letter to Kalshi:
In other legal news, Massachusetts has filed a reply brief in its case against Kalshi. H/t and more here from attorney Daniel Wallach.
Polymarket User Makes Over $1 Million On Google Search Markets (InGame): “Can someone be accused of insider trading if there are no insider trading rules they’re breaking? That’s the question being bandied about on social media site X today after someone profited over $1 million in a single day on Polymarket by wagering on Google search markets. All the markets revolved around questions concerning who would be the person most searched for in calendar year 2025 or who would be in the top five of searches.”
“According to X user @JeongHaeju, the user was a ‘Google insider’ and Google ‘accidentally’ pushed the results early before taking them down. The user then proceeded to win 22 out of 23 bets they made, including grabbing singer/songwriter d4vd as the most searched person on the platform at 5 cents. The user — AlphaRacoon, who has since changed their username — turned a $10,647 wager into nearly $200,000.
They also bet against numerous other names, wagering millions of dollars against their names being part of the list. One notable bet was putting $937,630 down on Bianca Censori, Kanye West’s wife, not being the no. 1 searched name. That paid out $1,103,021.
Polymarket Recruiting for In-House Team That Trades With Customers (Bloomberg, paywall): “Polymarket has been recruiting new staff members for an internal market making team that could face off against customers on the company’s exchange, even though a similar feature has exposed its chief rival to criticism. The New York-based prediction market startup has recently spoken to traders including sports bettors about joining the new unit, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the plans are private.”
It didn’t take CNN long to roll out the Kalshi ticker (Twitter):
Cost Of Geofencing Isn’t In The Fence — And Not Really That Expensive (InGame): “As Kalshi continues to fight for its right to offer sports event contracts across the U.S., one issue that it has brought to the attention of courts is the cost of geofencing. In particular, while arguing its case in October in a lawsuit brought by three California tribes, Kalshi’s lawyers suggested that the cost of geofencing for every tribal nation in the U.S. could become prohibitive. Traditional sports betting operators licensed by U.S. jurisdictions are required to use geofences — virtual fences that separate legal and non-legal areas. In some jurisdictions, like Washington, D.C., where there is federal land on which sports betting is not legal, the number of geofences required is high. In others, fewer geofences are required because wagering is legal in all or most locations in the jurisdiction. But even in those situations, one sports betting operator told InGame that it also voluntarily geofences elementary, middle, and high schools.”
