News flash: Kalshi Set To Launch Sports Betting On Individual Games
A new CFTC filing implies that we could see the equivalent of moneyline betting on the outcome of any game as soon as Saturday
Prediction market platform Kalshi has told the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it is self-certifying contracts that can be based on single-match outcomes, like who will win an NBA game.
Will Kalshi be offering single-game sports betting?
Here are the nuts and bolts of the filing.
Kalshi filed with the CFTC with a new binary option market it planned to launch called “Will team win event”; it does this regularly with new markets. You can see the filing below.
The market appears to allow Kalshi to offer markets on any game between any two teams.
An example given in the filing of what qualifies as an “event”: “The National Basketball Association meeting between the New York Knickerbockers and the Houston Rockets scheduled to be played February 3, 2025”
Contracts “will initially be listed on February 8, 2025” according to the filing, or Saturday.
It appears you can trade up to $25,000 on such markets.
Kalshi currently allows trading on all markets in 50 states.
So will we see expanded sports betting at Kalshi on Saturday?
While the CFTC is reportedly reviewing the legality of sports contracts, it appears Kalshi can list these markets without impediment. Robinhood backed off of listing Kalshi’s Super Bowl market via its app 24 hours after announcing a partnership.
The Event Horizon reached out to Kalshi for more context on the filing, but did not receive a response in time for publication. The Substack post will be updated if Kalshi responds.
Kalshi already has sports event markets that can function like moneyline bets. Those were based on different contract language constructions, like who would win the Super Bowl, or the NBA title, etc. The new language significantly expands the types of markets potentially available for trading.
The Super Bowl market for this Sunday’s game already functions like a single-game market. You could have traded on any team that had not been eliminated, prior to the AFC and NFC championship games. It did not start as a binary market.
About $4 million has been traded on the outcome of the Super Bowl.
Some new sports markets are already up at Kalshi
Using previously self-certified market language, Kalshi launched a few other markets earlier Friday:
Other non-event cultural Super Bowl markets appear to be on tap or already listed, including:
Will ‘x word’ be said by the commentators at the Super Bowl?
Will ‘x person’ attend the Super Bowl?
Will ‘x person’ be on the national broadcast of the Super Bowl?
Will ‘above/below/between/exactly/at least count’ persons watch the Super Bowl?
Interestingly, more popular Super Bowl markets that are sometimes offered by sportsbooks — like the length of the national anthem or the color of the post-game Gatorade bath — have not been listed or filed.
Totally off topic but I can’t get up to date information to answer this question. Do you know what the latest info is on Thrive Fantasy regarding any payout or legal issues I read about last year.