What We Know About Polymarket's Deal With Major League Soccer
Roundup: Kalshi opens DC office with Democrat in charge; sweepstakes exchange Novig files application with CFTC; new survey on prediction markets; CFTC reschedules event on crypto harmonization.
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Another professional North American sports league is getting involved with prediction markets.
The commercial arm of Major League Soccer — Soccer United Marketing — and Polymarket announced a multi-year partnership on Monday. The deal makes Polymarket an official partner of MLS and the Leagues Cup in the United States.
So far, no similar deal between Kalshi and MLS has been announced.
Quotes on the deal from Polymarket and MLS:
“As soccer’s audience continues to grow and evolve in the U.S., fans are looking for new ways to engage more deeply with the game,” said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. “Through our partnership with MLS and Leagues Cup, we can surface real-time collective sentiment around key moments, matches, and season-long storylines, giving fans a more interactive, data-driven way to experience the game and engage with the world’s most popular sport.”
“As MLS continues to grow, innovation remains central to how we engage fans and evolve the league,” said Gary Stevenson, MLS Deputy Commissioner and President of Soccer United Marketing. “Partnering with Polymarket allows us to integrate prediction markets as a new fan engagement format and position MLS as an early leader among global soccer properties.”
The move comes on the heels of similar deals in sports in recent months:
Both Kalshi and Polymarket partnered with the NHL.
Polymarket is an official partner of the UFC.
The partnership underlines the current environment for leagues and prediction markets. From the press release:
The partnership includes safeguards designed to protect the integrity of MLS and Leagues Cup matches, including independent monitoring of trading activities and collaboration on MLS and Leagues Cup markets offered.
Prediction markets on sports will exist regardless of what leagues think about them, at least in the short- to medium-term. Leagues can choose to monetize them and exert some control over integrity standards, fight them outright, or stay on the sidelines. MLS (and the NHL) have clearly chosen the first path.
More from Sportico with Chris Schlosser, the league’s SVP of emerging ventures.
“Things like approval on which markets will be listed; use of official data; third-party integrity monitoring from reputable companies like IC360 or Sportradar; support for investigations should we ever need it; and support for our restricted individuals list, so staff, players, reps, owners and club staff can’t trade on the sport of soccer,” he said. “We think that provides a robust set of integrity.”
For Polymarket’s international site, it’s not clear how much it can or will do beyond being able to flag large wagers. Users on the site trade using cryptocurrency and are largely anonymous, aside from their public wallet addresses. On the Polymarket US app, the exchange knows the names and other information of all traders.
Here’s more of the press release from MLS:
The partnership reflects MLS and SUM’s continued focus on innovation and positions MLS among the first global soccer leagues to integrate prediction market insights into the fan experience.
Polymarket and MLS plan to work together to develop new fan experiences across MLS digital platforms, with a focus on enhancing the live match experience and second-screen engagement for fans. These efforts are intended to bring supporters closer to the game through innovative digital content across MLS and Leagues Cup platforms that reflect real-time collective fan sentiment around key moments. …
Today’s announcement comes amid sustained momentum for soccer in North America. With the FIFA World Cup arriving in the region in 2026, Major League Soccer and Leagues Cup are entering a new era of visibility and growth, creating expanded opportunities to engage fans in meaningful and modern ways.
Polymarket had less than $1 million in volume on the most recent MLS Cup:
Kalshi had more than a million dollars of volume on the MLS Cup game, and less than half a million dollars on the futures market.
Betting on MLS remains a relatively small piece of the regulated sports betting industry.
The big question is if any of the larger North American leagues — namely the NFL, NBA or Major League Baseball — will jump into the fray. The NFL, for its part, has been publicly distancing itself from the prediction market industry.
Prediction markets roundup
Kalshi opens a DC office (Politico): “Kalshi has opened an office in D.C. as the online betting giant continues to grow its footprint in the nation’s capital. The betting platform has tapped Biden administration and Hill alum John Bivona as its first head of federal government relations.”
“Bivona most recently worked for Kalshi’s newest outside lobbying firm, Intersection Government Relations. Before that, he worked at Rasky Partners following a stint as DHS’ White House liaison during the Biden administration and on the Biden campaign. He also served as chief of staff to Antonio Delgado, who served in the House before becoming New York’s lieutenant governor in 2022.”
From Bivona on LinkedIn: After almost 2 decades of helping Democratic candidates win, I have decided to go in-house to lead and build the Federal Government Relations team at what I view as one of the most important innovations of our generation: Kalshi
In 2007, I knocked doors in Iowa for a little-known candidate named Barack Obama. I was all-in on the then-underdog. Then, during two cycles at the DCCC I recruited promising candidates, who ended up winning despite long odds. I loved my campaign days. I had a feeling, even before most of America did, that they had the potential to make a huge difference.
I have the same feeling about Kalshi. By taking prediction markets mainstream, Kalshi has enabled a fundamental shift in consumer behavior and changed the way people get information.
At a time where most Americans feel like the “system” is rigged against them, Kalshi has built a platform where there is no system: no algorithm, no house, no Wall Street. People decide the price and compete fairly against each other. To do well on Kalshi, you need to be smarter than your neighbor, not smarter than the house.
I love that, partially because it’s a healthier model, and partially because I was smarter than my neighbors when it came to sports 🤣. I remember sitting in the stands of Joe Robbie stadium as an 11 year old, predicting whether Dan Marino was going to break Fran Tarkenton’s career touchdown record that game. Even though I wasn’t an expert on everything, no one followed the Miami Dolphins closer than I did. I read every piece of news, followed every player, studied every statistic and I still do to this day. It’s my break away from politics. I love how Kalshi provides sports experts like me with the ability to put their knowledge to the test against their neighbors.
Kalshi is resonating with people: 45% of young American adults have become active users of prediction markets, with over $100B of annual volume. But what drew me in isn’t the growth or scale.
Tarek and Luana decided to spend four years working on proactively getting government approval to become the first CFTC-regulated prediction markets before launching a single product. While competitors were launching and scaling products offshore outside of the bounds of regulation, they stayed true to their principles.
Others debate innovation or regulation. Kalshi proved that, through hard work, you can do both.
Politics have changed enormously since I started in 2007. Mistrust in institutions and information have accelerated polarization. R, D or in between, most people think the system is rigged. While there isn’t one fix to these challenges, Kalshi has built a platform that is expanding access to information and leveraging the wisdom of the crowd for good.
I am thrilled to dedicate my next decade to this mission. I’m looking forward to working with regulators and policymakers on both sides of the aisle to support market integrity and customer protection.
Novig Applies for Federal Prediction Market Approval (Sportico): “Novig has applied for Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration as a prediction market exchange operator, according to government filings dated Jan. 21. It would do business as Ludlow Exchange LLC, with Novig co-founders Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah listed as directors.”
“The federally governed exchange model, brought to the forefront by Kalshi, has emerged as a major sports betting story over the past year. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, these exchanges don’t abide by state gambling laws or pay state gambling taxes, claiming they offer a kind of financial asset. Exchange operators facilitate bets between users, though some also have affiliated trading arms that participate on their exchanges. Novig already has an in-house trading team.”
Another sweepstakes exchange, ProphetX, applied to register with the CFTC late last year.
Jefferies Analysts: Sports Betting Handle Drops, But Don’t Blame Prediction Markets (InGame): “Jefferies analysts noted in a Field Position update Monday that although United States sports betting handle dropped in December for one of the few times ever, the incursion of prediction markets bearing on sports event contracts was likely not the cause.”
“And the underlying overall metrics, the report suggests, aren’t as dire as they seem for the legal sports betting industry, wrote James Wheatcroft, David Katz, and Matthew Copeland. …”
“Sportsbook handle doesn’t appear to have migrated to prediction markets, despite their recent gains in sports betting volume, according to Jefferies.”
“‘Kalshi’s momentum appears to be slowing, rather than accelerating,’ Jefferies observed, noting that its December volume was up just 6% month-over-month, as opposed to +54% and +32% in October and November, respectively.”
My latest over at The Closing Line:
The uses and abuses of prediction markets (The Financial Times, paywall): “Insider bets, low liquidity and regulatory gaps complicate efforts to turn wagers into financial tools.”
Prediction markets can take bets on outlandish events that ‘get laundered into legitimacy,’ Gen Z’s favorite economic commentator warns (Fortune): “Financial markets have long influenced perceptions, but prediction markets can prematurely create a permission structure for possible events in the future, according to economist Kyla Scanlon.”
“In a recent New York Times op-ed, she pointed to a dynamic that trading legend George Soros once observed, namely that market expectations help shape reality, not just predict what’s ahead. But traders of stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities are reacting to events and making forecasts based on that. What’s different about prediction markets is they can give the appearance of consensus for something that hasn’t happened yet, Scanlon warned.”
Gen Z Is Betting Big on Prediction Markets—Literally (Decrypt): “A third of young Americans think prediction markets are the future. And they’re putting their money where their mouth is. New survey data from The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital reveals that 31% of Americans believe prediction markets will become a bigger, more important part of culture. But that number masks a generational split that’s as wide as the gap between TikTok and cable news.”
“Younger consumers are much more aware of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Gen Z and Millennials show 17% awareness of Polymarket versus just 4% for Gen X and older. Kalshi awareness follows the same pattern: 13% for younger users, 5% for older generations.”
The prediction market boom is posing an existential threat to American Indian gaming (Brookings): “The boom in online sports betting and prediction markets is disrupting Tribal government gaming—and in the process, creating an existential threat to Tribal sovereignty and economies. Gaming in Indian Country, including sports betting, is conducted by Tribal governments under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988 (IGRA), one of the most comprehensive and complex regulatory schemes in the world. Since its passage, gaming has singularly changed the economic landscape for Tribes across the country. Having survived mass closures and layoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic, tribal gaming revenues hit a high of $43.9 billion in 2024. These revenues are the primary source of Tribal government support for essential community services.”
“Yet today, the rise of prediction markets such as Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood is jeopardizing that economic development model. These sites offer sports ‘event contracts,’ which circumvent the IGRA’s federal regulatory scheme and disregard rules such as state and Tribal licensing, minimum age requirements, and consumer protections delineated in carefully negotiated compacts. If left unchecked, Tribal sovereignty and the vitality of Tribal economies may be undermined.”
State Gaming Commissions Rallying Behind Massachusetts Judge’s Kalshi Decision (Sports Betting Dime): “So far, counsel for Ohio, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Tennessee have filed the Massachusetts preliminary injunction approval as ‘supplemental authority’ in their own legal struggles against the prediction market company. Each of those states have officially included the preliminary injunction decision into their own legal strategies to impose preliminary injunctions upon Kalshi as well.”
CFTC and SEC Reschedule Joint Event on Harmonization, U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era (press release): Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael S. Selig and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul S. Atkins will hold a joint event, previously scheduled for Jan. 27, now rescheduled for Thursday, Jan. 29, from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. at CFTC headquarters to discuss harmonization between the two agencies and their efforts to deliver on President Trump’s promise to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.
“For too long, market participants have been forced to navigate regulatory boundaries that are unclear in application and misaligned in design, based solely on legacy jurisdictional silos,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig and SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins. “This event will build on our broader harmonization efforts to ensure that innovation takes root on American soil, under American law, and in service of American investors, consumers, and economic leadership.”
Title: CFTC – SEC Harmonization: U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era
Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
Time: 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET
Host: CFTC Headquarters at Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Agenda:
2:00 – 2:05 PM: Introduction from Chairman Paul Atkins
2:05 – 2:20 PM: Opening Remarks from Chairman Mike Selig
2:20 – 2:50 PM: Fireside Chat with Chairmen Atkins, Selig
Moderator: Eleanor Terrett, Co-Founder and Host, Crypto in America
The event, held at CFTC headquarters, will be open to the public and webcast live on the SEC’s website. Doors will open at 1:30 p.m.
For online attendance, registration is not necessary. For in-person attendance, please register in advance.
Crypto Traders Flee to Prediction Bets After $150 Billion Crash (Bloomberg, paywall): “Not long ago, Nikshep Saravanan was deep in the crypto trenches — trading memecoins, reaching out to venture capitalists, and trying to launch a startup for digital creators. By January, he’d dropped it all. These days, he spends hours on prediction markets, tracking odds on everything from sports to politics.”
“As I was trying to get traction without funding, the prediction-markets space started blowing up,” recalled the 27-year-old Canadian.
“Saravanan is part of a fast-growing wave of crypto-native traders cooling on the token economy and gravitating toward event betting. Where the action once revolved around meme coins and protocol launches, it’s now about interest-rate decisions, NBA games, and weather forecasts.”
Prediction Markets See Nearly 80% Chance of New Shutdown (WSJ, paywall): “Traders on prediction markets stepped up their wagers on another government shutdown after the weekend’s deadly shooting in Minneapolis led Senate Democrats to demand changes to a major spending package. Early Monday, prices on Polymarket were implying a 78% probability of a shutdown by the end of January, up from less than 10% on Friday. The bets have drawn about $7.5 million in total trading volume, Polymarket data shows. A similar contract on Kalshi, a rival platform, also showed a huge jump in the chances of a shutdown on Jan. 31, when funding for much of the federal government is set to expire.”
Bettors wagered millions on this weekend’s expected snowfall across the U.S. (CBS News): “Bettors seeking to cash in on the weekend’s snowstorm flocked to prediction markets to wager millions on how much snow would ultimately accumulate across the U.S., with more than $6 million bet on New York City’s totals alone. Online prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi accepted bets for expected snowfall in different locales across the U.S. For example, more than $1.2 million was wagered on a market at Polymarket, titled ‘How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26).’ Based on bets placed through Monday, the implied consensus snowfall for New York City’s total was 11 inches.”
Bring The Receipts (Straight to the Point): “Prediction markets were warned by the CFTC to have a plan in place in the event of an adverse legal outcome like the one recently handed down in Massachusetts.”
Polymarket’s latest Substack:
