What was likely supposed to be a story showing how great prediction markets are for hedging sports events has gone a bit off the rails.
First, let’s get you up to speed. Last week, Semafor ran a piece about a La Liga team using Kalshi to hedge the possibility it would be relegated:
“The owners of a top-tier Spanish soccer team had to move fast. Coming into the final game of the season, the club was on the brink of getting kicked down to a lower league, which would have meant millions in lost ticket and broadcast revenue.
So they turned to Kalshi, placing a multimillion-dollar bet against itself, in case the game didn’t break its way. In the end, the club squeaked by, losing its final game of the season by a narrow enough margin, 1-0, to keep its place in the top tier of La Liga.”
I (and some others who follow sports and the prediction markets industry) thought this was a strange piece for a couple of reasons:
The story never named the team, which is…odd. Why not? The circumstances of the story made it possible to divine that it was likely Club Atlético Osasuna. (The story also originally had the score of the game Osasuna was involved in reversed, adding to the confusion around the details. The story now shows the score correctly and features a correction.)
The story says the team “bet against itself,” which is almost certainly not what happened logistically, nor would it be how the team would want it to be communicated. Relegation — where a team is sent to a lower-level league — is a huge deal, but insuring/hedging that outcome is fairly common in international soccer. But teams do this through intermediaries.
All of that leads us to Monday, when Osasuna — seeing some of the coverage and chatter — went to the extraordinary lengths of clarifying how exactly it insured/hedged the possibility of being relegated:
Following recent reports about coverage related to the risk of relegation purchased by Club Atlético Osasuna, the club wishes to clarify the following:
Osasuna purchased insurance to cover potential financial consequences stemming from possible relegation, a common practice in professional sports, particularly soccer. The club secured a 1.2 million euro policy to guarantee compensation of 6 million euros in the event of relegation.
The coverage was purchased through Howden, an internationally renowned insurance company with a strong presence in the sports sector, which has worked with other LaLiga clubs for years.
Documents issued by Howden and LaLiga, which accompany this statement, confirm that such policies are routinely used by clubs and sports organizations to protect against financial contingencies related to their activity.
LaLiga was aware of Osasuna’s purchase of the policy, as it was consulted during the process.
The purchase of this policy was also reported to the chairman of the club’s Control Commission and will be included in a report that the commission plans to issue in the coming days about this and other current matters. The club’s auditors were also informed.
Osasuna’s involvement in this matter was strictly limited to purchasing coverage from Howden to partially offset the economic impact of a potential relegation. The club reserves the right to take any actions necessary to defend its interests and reputation.
Certificate from Howden Ibérica Regarding the Operation
So if you’re keeping up:
The team’s statement does not describe Osasuna using Kalshi directly; it describes purchasing insurance.
The insurance company Osasuna said it used was not named in the Semafor story. The original piece says “the team went to Game Point Capital,” which isn’t in the Osasuna clarification. And that “on the other side of the Spanish team’s trade was Susquehanna.”
Interestingly, Spain moved to block Kalshi and Polymarket shortly after the final weekend of La Liga’s relegation race.
In any event, the story was likely supposed to be further proof that Kalshi is useful for sports events, beyond gambling. I think I ended up with more questions than answers after all of this. I’d hazard a guess on how all this actually went down, but I don’t want to muddy the waters even more.
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📊 The Ticker
For Sunday, June 7, at Kalshi:
Volume: $611.1 million
Sports + parlays: 79.4% of volume
Crypto markets: 16.3% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US on Sunday: $87.7 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Sportradar and Kalshi Announce First-of-its-Kind Data and Infrastructure Global Partnership for Prediction Markets (press release): Sportradar Group AG… announced a landmark multi-year global agreement with Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market. This strategic agreement positions Sportradar as an official data and solutions provider for Kalshi, delivering a broad portfolio of premium sports content and services across major sports properties including Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Hockey League (NHL), Major League Soccer (MLS), and Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), among others.
As prediction markets continue to emerge as a fast growing and regulated segment of the sports ecosystem, Sportradar is positioned to play a foundational role in enabling their growth and facilitating a framework for integrity. This agreement also establishes the ability for Sportradar to enter into agreements directly with Kalshi’s key partners, including brokers and market makers, with real time official data and scalable solutions across the value chain.
Sportradar will provide Kalshi with a range of solutions from Sportradar Prediction Services, including:
Official Sports Data and Live Odds: Fast, reliable, accurate official data and live odds to power pre-game and in-play markets, enhancing market efficiency while ensuring timely settlements
Fan Engagement Solutions: Dynamic, real-time content, including scores, schedules, and data visualizations, designed to drive deeper engagement
Customer Acquisition Solutions: Leading marketing services to help acquire high value sports fans
Industry-Leading Integrity Services: Robust integrity framework including Sportradar UFDS AI, which detects suspicious behavior, and Sportradar Integrity Exchange (SIE), which enables participants to share integrity threats through a secure network …
Sportradar will provide products and services to Kalshi and other licensed prediction market entities that operate in compliance with applicable regulations and legal requirements.
Carsten Koerl, Chief Executive Officer of Sportradar, said: “Prediction markets represent a compelling growth engine for the global sports ecosystem and Sportradar is uniquely positioned to shape and power this emerging sector. Our partnership with Kalshi extends the reach of our premium sports data and services into a rapidly evolving landscape, fostering collaboration with market makers and the broader marketplace. This partnership with Kalshi marks a critical first step. We look forward to working with key prediction market participants as the landscape matures, establishing the trusted, compliant framework for sports innovation just as we have successfully delivered in online sports betting.”
Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, said: “The breadth and depth of this partnership is what makes it a big deal. We’re using official league data to ensure quicker trade settlements, creating an overall better customer experience. We’re also collaborating on an integrity monitoring program to further protect our users.”
Sportradar Stock Jumps On Kalshi Partnership (Legal Sports Report): “Sportradar saw its stock rise nearly 10% to $15.26 at close on Monday after it announced its first entrance into prediction markets with a Kalshi partnership.”
🔍 This is another big move for Kalshi, further embedding itself in the sports/sports betting ecosystem. It gives the prediction market some official data…but notably not NFL, which has a deal with Genius Sports.
Polymarket and Kalshi Say Influencer Partners Can’t Deny Election Results, Actually (Wired): “As the United States heads into an especially contentious midterm election season, prediction markets have already run into trouble with the political commentators they pay to promote their platforms. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have asked influencers to take down ‘paid partnership’ tags on social media posts questioning the results of the Los Angeles mayoral election, the platforms confirmed to WIRED.”
“As conservative former reality television star Spencer Pratt fell to third place behind incumbent Karen Bass and city counselor Nithya Raman, several popular right-wing creators published posts casting doubt on the race.”
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Rules for prediction markets soon?:
Lydia Beyoud@ElleBeyoudThe CFTC's proposal to regulate prediction markets should be out soon. The White House wrapped up its review of the measure on Friday, according to an update on OIRA's website.
2:37 PM · Jun 8, 2026 · 32.6K Views7 Replies · 25 Reposts · 89 LikesTentative trial date set for soldier who allegedly made $400,000 off Maduro’s capture (ABC News): “A federal judge on Monday set a tentative date for the trial of the U.S. Army special forces soldier who is charged with using classified information about the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to make more than $400,000 on the prediction market Polymarket. The criminal trial of Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is tentatively scheduled for Dec. 7.”
Amo, Casar Demand Explanation from CFTC Over Suspiciously Precise, Massively Profitable Prediction Market Bets on Trump’s War in Iran (press release): …Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01) and Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) demanded answers from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig over his reluctance to crack down on extremely accurate, tremendously profitable prediction market trades on Trump’s war of choice in Iran. The Members write:
“Recent reporting has identified accounts that placed highly accurate, high-volume bets tied to war in Iran that appear unusually well-timed and highly profitable.
Given the weak safeguards, opaque governance, and minimal accountability on these platforms, the public has a right to know whether participants may have used their access to nonpublic or privileged information to profit.
Markets tied to war and government action create a perverse incentive structure for those with the most sensitive information to profit the most.
That risk is unacceptable, which is why I urge you to conduct further scrutiny of these platforms to protect against corruption, address platform governance vulnerabilities, and strengthen safeguards against market manipulation.”
📣 Industry news
EDGE Markets Raises $29.2 Million Series A Funding Round (press release): EDGE Markets, a financial services company that creates products for alternative financial markets in the gaming, crypto, and prediction markets space, announced today that it closed a $29.2 million Series A round. CoinFund led the round, alongside Indicator Ventures, Mantis VC, Stepstone Group, and Bullpen Capital.
With this funding, EDGE Markets is expanding its offerings to introduce EDGE Pro, the first high throughput deposit accounts for market makers that enable seamless, real-time deposits into all CFTC regulated exchanges. EDGE Pro solves the two largest friction points for institutional capital to scale: multi-liquidity pool post-execution settlement and margin. To enable this solution, EDGE Markets is actively pursuing both an Introducing Broker and Future Commission Merchant registrations with the National Futures Association. These registrations will allow EDGE Pro users to execute orders directly through their EDGE Pro accounts and conduct post-execution settlement across various liquidity pools to dramatically amplify capital efficiencies vs. the current model where all trading accounts need to be prefunded and fully collateralized. Finally, EDGE Pro users will be able to plug and play existing margin from third party prime brokerages. To sign up for early access to EDGE Pro, market makers can visit www.edgemarkets.io/pro.
“The core vision of EDGE Markets has always been to decrease friction for capital to flow in regulated markets. With the high velocity growth of prediction markets, we are excited to build and support the core infrastructure for traders to efficiently scale their activity. There are many talented groups building exchanges, but we’re building the base station for capital allocation, to address their real needs,” said Seni Thomas, Founder and CEO of EDGE Markets.
I spoke with Thomas on my podcast at The Closing Line:
Binance Wallet Launches Prediction Markets API (Binance): “Binance Wallet has officially launched the Prediction Markets API. Eligible users can now access Prediction Markets via API, enabling programmatic access and trading. Whether you are building trading bots, quantitative strategies, analytics tools, portfolio management systems, or looking to integrate prediction market functionality into existing products, the Prediction Markets API helps you access market data and trading capabilities through a unified interface.”
LBank launches LBank Predict, bringing next-gen prediction markets to crypto trading (press release): “LBank, the leading global cryptocurrency exchange, has officially launched LBank Predict. As the industry’s first prediction market platform deeply integrated into a robust derivatives trading infrastructure, LBank Predict blurs the boundaries between event forecasting and structured derivatives trading. By redefining how global users engage with prediction markets, the platform transforms market expectations, macro viewpoints, and trending global events into actionable trading opportunities, delivering a highly capital-efficient event trading experience.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
BBB’s National Advertising Division Refers Kalshi To Authorities Over Undisclosed Social Media Ads (InGame): “The Better Business Bureau’s National Advertising Division (NAD) said it will refer Kalshi to authorities including attorneys general over undisclosed social media ads. The NAD announced via press release Monday that it had launched an inquiry into ‘whether material connections between Kalshi and influencers or affiliates were clearly and conspicuously disclosed in social media advertising, and whether Kalshi takes adequate steps to ensure compliance with the Federal Trade Commission’s Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising.’”
The rise of prediction markets is creating new ethical headaches for journalists (Poynter): “Should newsrooms, for instance, be making deals with prediction markets to integrate their data into their sites, as Dow Jones has with Polymarket? If they do, how might it affect the way reporters at those companies cover these markets? Are the odds worth covering? Some critics even question whether reporters should cover the prediction markets at all.”
Jonathan Reiss, a co-founder of the Media and Democracy Project, has argued that covering prediction markets on their face is ‘bad for journalism and bad for the public.’ He told me it amounts to an extreme form of horse-race journalism, focusing on the odds of a particular event rather than the impact on people’s lives. Reiss and his colleagues at the Media and Democracy Project have proposed six specific restrictions on coverage of prediction markets they think newsrooms should adopt, ranging from not allowing journalists to bet on prediction markets to avoiding mentioning specific odds in stories.”
Could Prediction Markets Erode State Gambling Tax Revenues? (Tax Policy Center): “Prediction markets are emerging as a significant competitor to sports betting, which is now legal in 39 states and the District of Columbia. But sportsbooks operate within state regulations, and they generate tax revenues that feed into state budgets. By contrast, prediction markets operate outside those structures. As wagering migrates to these platforms, states could be on the losing end.”
US election betting boom to test prediction markets' insider trading controls (Reuters, paywall): “Prediction market watchdogs may struggle to police betting on the U.S. midterm elections, with thousands of races offering ever more ways for insiders to make a quick buck on a rising number of platforms, according to experts and new data.”
CFTC Nixes Plan for New Headquarters as Prediction Markets Boom (Bloomberg): “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is scrapping a planned headquarters move, citing a need for more space even as the regulator offers buyouts to some long-time employees. The derivatives regulator plans to extend its current lease for another five years, according to a posting on a government website.”
Gambling with Democracy: Prediction markets and the Los Angeles mayoral race (CBS News LA, video): “Can the rise of prediction markets have an influence on American elections? Some experts say yes. CBS LA’s Aaron Velasquez reports.”
Kalshi Board Member Brian Quintenz on the growth and evolution of prediction markets (CNBC, video): “Kalshi Board Member Brian Quintenz speaks with CNBC Events Contributor Tyler Mathisen at the 2026 CNBC CEO Council Summit about the fast-growing prediction market industry and the value they are delivering.”
The Explosive Growth of Prediction Markets Is a Symptom of a Deeply Sick Economy (In These Times): “But the explosive rise of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket is a symptom of a degenerative sickness of our economy — unrelenting inequality and desperation, and a growing financial nihilism, particularly among younger people in the United States.”
“Young adults already facing a bleak economic horizon have become increasingly vulnerable to the allure of high-risk, speculative activity: from day trading on Robinhood, to investing in cryptocurrencies, and now to placing wagers on prediction markets. Financial stability, to the extent that it ever existed, has largely been replaced by a gambling economy. And that’s music to the ears of the investors and companies profiting off of desperation.”
More Kalshi content at NHL.com: The guys break down the Conn Smythe contenders, presented by Kalshi
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For me, as an European and a football fan, this is an extremely interesting story. Thank you for sharing, Dustin. I wouldn't have known about it otherwise