Kalshi Volume Report: Sports Still Drives Action In A Week The Fed Met
Sports accounted for about 60% of all trading volume in a relatively slow week at the prediction market Kalshi. A meeting of the Federal Reserve and other financial news did spur increased activity in economic markets, however.
Betting on baseball, tennis, and golf were the biggest markets last week. Here’s a look at the top 20 markets from July 28-Aug. 3:
More notes on the data:
The top 20 markets represented roughly 85% of all trading on Kalshi.
Seven of the top ten markets involved sports, and eight of the top 20.
Betting on single Major League Baseball games was the single biggest market. Baseball accounted for 19% of all volume when aggregating all futures markets, including the World Series champion, which appeared in the top 10.
Betting on men’s and women’s pro tennis matches was about 18% of all volume.
Golf accounted for around 13% of volume. The Wyndham Championship, the final event before the PGA Tour playoffs, drew less attention than most tournaments.
Other sports markets that were big drivers of volume were WNBA games and the Hungarian Grand Prix in Formula 1.
The Federal Reserve met last week and boosted activity in several economic markets. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates (KXFEDDECISION) accounted for more than 10% of all volume.
Bitcoin price markets (KXBTCD, KXBTC) also accounted for almost 10% of volume.
Other non-sports markets appearing in the top 20:
S&P price today (KXINXU)
Who will win the mayoral race in New York? (KXMAYORNYCPARTY)
Will Jerome Powell be out as Fed chair this year? (LEAVEPOWELL)
Jobs numbers this month (KXPAYROLLS)
Gas prices in the US this month (KXAAAGASM)
Fed funds rate (FED)
Number of rate cuts in 2025 (KXRATECUTCOUNT)
Unemployment rate for August (KXU3)
Democratic nominee for president in 2028 (KXPRESNOMD)