Kalshi Posts Second-Biggest Day Ever: $700M In Volume
Parlays accounted for more than a quarter of Kalshi volume. Roundup: Trump talks about prediction markets again in recent comments; Polymarket exchange upgrades go live this week.
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Kalshi just had its second-biggest day ever, as the prediction market platform eclipsed $700 million in trading volume on Saturday.
The only day bigger in Kalshi history was on Feb. 8, when it saw $871 million in volume on the day of the Super Bowl.
More than 92% of the $700.6 million in volume on Saturday came on sports and parlays, which are bets that are based on the outcomes of multiple events. Parlays — called “combos” by most prediction markets — mostly consist of sports events. About $189 million of that volume came on parlays.
A good deal of Kalshi’s recent growth has come from an uptick in parlays. Kalshi launched parlays last fall. Here’s the trend line since they launched:
Here’s another way to get a grasp of the growth of both Kalshi and the combo category. Total volume at Kalshi in September was about $2.9 billion. Kalshi has already seen $2.6 billion in combo volume in April and looks like it should eclipse $3 billion just on parlays.
It’s important to note that volume for parlays — and indeed all volume at prediction markets — is not akin to what the sports betting industry measures as “handle,” or the amount wagered by users.
A parlay placed for $1 to win $99 at a sportsbook generates $1 of handle
A combo placed at Kalshi for $1 to win $99 generates $100 in volume.
The users on the long end of the combos at Kalshi are not a comp for a retail user at a sportsbook. They are generally market makers that serve the same function as the house at a sportsbook, as they are willing to take on the risk of the long odds.
So while the volume growth is meaningful, some of it is coming from how parlays factor into the top-line number.
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Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
As prediction markets explode in popularity, the regulator that polices them has been shrinking (CNN): “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission workforce has dropped by 24% since President Donald Trump returned to office, according to the latest available data, raising concerns about its ability to police insider trading and protect consumers.”
The Ultimate Price of Prediction Markets (Council on Foreign Relations): “By the time a national security insider is caught trading, the damage is done. The Maduro market should not have existed in the first place. The ultimate enforcement mechanism is preemption. Yet that is precisely the approach regulators have willfully abandoned.”
Arrest of U.S. Soldier Signals Polymarket’s Wild-West Days Are Ending (WSJ): “The arrest of a soldier charged with using classified information to place lucrative bets on Polymarket is a watershed moment for prediction markets, heralding a new era of stricter government enforcement of the wildly popular betting platforms.”
What Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan had to say about the Maduro case:
Shayne Coplan 🦅@shayne_coplanGrateful the DOJ officially acknowledged Polymarket's cooperation on this case. Noise aside, the reality is we work proactively with all relevant authorities on any suspicious activity on our marketplace. We flagged this, referred it, and cooperated throughout the process. This4:22 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 1.2M Views694 Replies · 246 Reposts · 1.62K Likes
As Sports Leagues Hitch To Polymarket, Scrutiny Grows (Sportico): “So far, the leagues haven’t directly addressed whether they are concerned by how public attention being paid to the military wagers and their apparent potential for manipulation could reflect on their own images. MLB and the NHL did not respond to a request for comment, while MLS declined to comment.”
Trump softens on prediction markets (we think?):
Per Decrypt’s Sander Lutz on Twitter: “Trump seemed to change his tune a bit from Thursday, saying he “knows some people who are very smart, and they like it.” Trump’s son, Don Jr, is an advisor to top two prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump also told me other countries are legalizing the sector, and America will fall behind if it doesn’t follow.”
Sander Lutz@sander_lutzI asked the president this afternoon whether he’s reconsidering his admin’s pro-prediction market stance, given his comment this week that he’s “not a fan” of them and they’re turning the world “into a casino.” Trump seemed to change his tune a bit from Thursday, saying he9:44 PM · Apr 25, 2026 · 14.4K Views9 Replies · 11 Reposts · 49 Likes🤔 After some negative commentary from Trump earlier, the pendulum swung back toward not-so-bad for prediction markets. Also, no other countries are trying to legalize prediction markets and the US is not falling behind in that industry, in case that needs to be said out loud.
Tribal Gaming Leader: House Committee Hearing ‘Mixed Bag’ (InGame): “A behind-closed-doors hearing about prediction markets with the members of the House Agriculture Committee was a ‘mixed bag,’ with some members “drinking the Kool-Aid” from event contract operators, according to Indian Gaming Association (IGA) Chair David Bean.”
“Bean was speaking at an IGA webinar titled “The New Normal: Regulated Gaming Pushes Back on Prediction Markets,” alongside IGA Conference Chair Victor Rocha and Executive Director Jason Giles as well as American Gaming Association (AGA) Vice President of Government Relations Tres York. The webinar took place Wednesday, hours after the House Committee on Agriculture held a non-public discussion on prediction markets. That discussion followed a public hearing with CFTC Chair Michael Selig on April 16.”
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Minnesota Prediction Market Ban Bill Heads to Senate Floor (Covers): “Minnesota is nearing what would be the nation’s first prediction market legislative ban. A Senate committee advanced the prediction market ban bill Friday without opposition. The measure is now set for a vote on the Senate floor. If passed there, it would head to the House, which would also need to approve the bill before it could be enacted into law.”
New York:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGAL👀 This is the same SDNY judge who is presiding over Kalshi v. @NewYorkStateAG and @NYSGamingComm, and may soon be assigned to the CFTC’s lawsuit vs. the NYAG.
Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGALJudge Torres also recognized, in Von Kahle v. Cargill, that "swap agreements have long been governed by state law and continue to be governed by state law after the Dodd-Frank Act." Nevada's counsel, Nicole Saharsky, repped several derivatives trade groups in this case.2:42 AM · Apr 27, 2026 · 573 Views1 Repost · 1 Like
Industry news
There’s a new filing for a designated contract market at the CFTC: A company called TLD Markets filed documents for a DCM last week. The company is a subsidiary of Trek Labs, which runs Backpack Exchange (that website is listed in the filings). Former FTX general counsel Can Sun is Backpack’s Chief Compliance Officer.
Polymarket launches exchange upgrade this week:
Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevsExchange upgrades go live on April 28 at 11am UTC. ~1 hour of downtime. The v1 orderbook gets cleared and all open limit orders are cancelled. Funds and positions are safe. Trading via API? Update to the latest SDK before then. V1 clients stop working after cutover. Dev
9:31 PM · Apr 26, 2026 · 16.6K Views20 Replies · 18 Reposts · 155 LikesOG.com CEO leaves role: Nick Lundgren announced recently that he would be leaving the helm of Crypto.com’s prediction-markets app called OG. LinkedIn post here. He had previously served as chief legal officer for Crypto.com.
OG saw some adoption when it launched right before the Super Bowl, but otherwise it doesn’t seem like it’s gotten much traction, per app download numbers.
CME Beats Q1 Estimates as Record Volume Offsets Uncertain Prediction Markets Outlook (DeFi Rate): “Duffy also cited ‘robust demand for our products,’ and the investor report lists some data pertinent to prediction markets in that regard. According to the report, ‘prediction markets activity has continued to grow with over 215 million event contracts having traded since the early December 2025 launch.’ In the United States, CME Group works with FanDuel Predicts and provides markets to DraftKings Predictions, who also partners with Crypto.com.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? (academic paper): “Prediction markets are remarkably accurate, yet the source of this accuracy remains poorly understood. The conventional view attributes it to crowd wisdom, whereby prices aggregate information from a large and diverse pool of participants. We show instead that accuracy is driven by a small minority of informed traders. Using the universe of transactions from a large prediction market platform, we identify these traders and show that they, around 3% of all accounts, generate the bulk of price discovery. Their trades predict future prices and final outcomes, make prices more accurate throughout a market’s lifespan, and react to news the moment it arrives. The remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it. Their trades generate most of the volume, but little of the information, and their losses flow as profits to the informed minority. Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd.”
Kalshi’s founders were at the White House Correspondents Dinner:
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_This was Luana and I’s first White House Correspondents Dinner. The moment was scary, but the dinner until then was a great gathering of people from all sides. @weijia did an incredible job. Grateful for law enforcement and that the President and everyone is safe.3:57 AM · Apr 26, 2026 · 106K Views21 Replies · 12 Reposts · 326 LikesIn case you missed it, my podcast wrapping up the previous week:
That academic paper deserves more attention next to the parlay numbers. If 3% of traders generate the bulk of price discovery while the other 97% just fund it, and parlays now drive most of Kalshi's volume growth, the headline metric is increasingly built on activity that contributes least to information discovery. Which happens to be the same function the industry leads with in every CFTC hearing. Minnesota's ban and the tribal gaming pushback start making more sense when the growth story and the political story are pulling in opposite directions.