Kalshi Launches Ad Campaign Saying It Bans Insider Trading And Markets On Death
Roundup: Polymarket to work with Palantir to police sports betting; updates in Ohio and Michigan prediction markets court cases; Kalshi founder makes cover of Inc.
Kalshi is starting an ad campaign conveying that it’s a regulated exchange that doesn’t allow insider trading or markets on death, The Event Horizon understands.
Some of the advertisements will also note that Kalshi is an exchange that doesn’t have an interest in whether traders/bettors win or lose, and doesn’t function as “the house” like sportsbooks do.
The ads will initially be rolling out in the Washington DC area via public transportation displays on the Metro and at bus shelters, as well as digitally. Other metropolitan areas may be included.
Here is what the creative looks like:
The ad campaign comes amid pushback and proposed legislation in Congress, around both insider trading at prediction markets as well as markets about war and death.
The war with Iran has created a burst of negative PR for the nascent prediction markets industry. Polymarket offered markets around military action in Iran, while also offering a market on whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be ousted or leave that position. The market resolution for “yes” included any scenario where he died.
Kalshi also offered a market on Khamenei’s ouster, but the market did not resolve to “yes” because he died. However, it still closed upon his death. The market created controversy for Kalshi, which would later return fees to users that traded the market and also reimbursed the cost of trades by users who might have lost money on the market.
Rules for federally regulated prediction markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission don’t allow for event contracts on war and assassination. Polymarket’s international site does not operate under the auspices of the CFTC, and technically doesn’t serve Americans. However, Polymarket also operates a US-regulated exchange. The CFTC and FBI also closed investigations into Polymarket last summer.
The campaign also comes as Kalshi and other prediction markets are squaring off on Capitol Hill with lobbyists from both the American Gaming Association and a new group called Gambling Is Not Investing. The latter coalition is led by former chief of staff for President Donald Trump, Mick Mulvaney, who recently applauded proposed legislation on prediction markets:
“Today’s introduction of the Event Contract Enforcement Act is an important step toward reining in these pernicious prediction market operators that flout seriously debated and well-crafted state laws governing sports gambling.
These so-called prediction markets are nothing more than a backdoor for unregulated gambling. They are unilaterally making online sports gambling widely available to anyone in the country without the consumer protections, age restrictions, and state and local tax benefits that govern legalized sports betting.
These unsafe and unregulated sports gambling markets are bad for Americans.
Gambling is Not Investing applauds Congressmen Moore and Carbajal for confronting these risks head-on.”
– Congressman Mick Mulvaney, Executive Director of Gambling is Not Investing
Prediction markets roundup
Polymarket Taps Palantir, TWG AI to Police Sports Bets (Bloomberg): “Polymarket is enlisting firms including Palantir Technologies Inc. to help police its sports contracts as prediction markets face intense scrutiny over insider trading.
A platform developed by Palantir and TWG AI will help identify, prevent and report suspicious activity, Polymarket said in a statement Tuesday, confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report. Measures include screening against existing lists of participants already banned from sports betting. …”
“Our partnership with Palantir and TWG AI allows us to apply world-class analytics and monitoring to sports markets,” Shayne Coplan, chief executive officer of Polymarket, said in the statement.
Some interesting news on geopolitical markets:
Lydia Beyoud@ElleBeyoudGeopolitical prediction markets should be specific and not open ended, to avoid backing into contracts on war, assassination, terrorism, CFTC's @ChairmanSelig tells Bloomberg's @timsteno from sidelines of FIA Boca.
3:06 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 3.29K Views11 Reposts · 21 LikesSharing Kalshi Forecasts to Threads (Kalshi): Today we’re making it easier for people to discuss what’s going on in the world on Threads, Meta’s text-based app for conversations. With this integration, people can share their opinions alongside the forecasts they’re seeing on Kalshi. It’s another data point to add to the conversation.
If you’re on Kalshi’s app and you want to share and talk about the odds of something happening, like who’s going to win Best Picture or which reality TV character is going to go home, simply click on the share icon and post your take to Threads:
Once you share to Threads, that market will be embedded in your post. Threads will make it easy for people to engage with your post, including showing a countdown timer and alerting interested users when the market resolves so they can jump back into the conversation around the outcome. You can also easily crosspost your Threads post to Instagram Stories from the Threads share menu to help it reach your audience on both platforms.
Michigan judge refuses Polymarket temporary restraining order (SBC Americas): “Polymarket received an unfavorable ruling by a Michigan court in the prediction market’s attempt to keep its sports event contracts available to residents and visitors in the state in the immediate term. On Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Paul L. Maloney denied the prediction market platform’s motion for a temporary restraining order (TRO) in its legal dispute against Michigan state officials.”
Ohio judge orders Kalshi to follow state betting laws (The Hill): “A federal judge in Ohio ruled Monday that prediction market platform Kalshi must adhere to state regulations on gambling. In denying Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction against state regulators, U.S. District Judge Sarah D. Morrison wrote that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws, which the company had argued in filing suit in October against officials at the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state Attorney General Dave Yost (R).”
“History reveals no evidence that Congress intended to preempt state sports gambling laws,” wrote Morrison, whom President Trump appointed during his first term, in her 21-page opinion.
Ohio’s attorney general:
Dave Yost@DaveYostOHBREAKING: A federal judge today ruled that Kalshi is subject to Ohio sports betting law. Kalshi argued the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts enforcement of Ohio law. Nope. These “prediction markets” have exploded and look an awful a lot like gambling. Big win for Ohio!9:19 PM · Mar 9, 2026 · 91.2K Views28 Replies · 78 Reposts · 1.07K Likes
CNBC Changemakers and Power Players Podcast: Kalshi Co-Founder & COO and 2026 CNBC Changemaker Luana Lopes Lara: “In this week’s episode of the CNBC Changemakers and Power Players podcast, CNBC Senior Media and Tech Reporter Julia Boorstin spoke with Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Kalshi and a 2026 CNBC Changemaker.”
“Luana Lopes Lara talks about how her path — from growing up in Brazil and training in ballet to studying at MIT and working on Wall Street — shaped her discipline and her comfort with high-stakes bets. She opens up about the years she spent pushing through regulatory roadblocks to legalize Kalshi in the U.S., and how she and her co-founder set out to build something fundamentally different: a platform where people trade on real-world outcomes, not stocks. She also explains why she believes prediction markets will be bigger than the stock market.”
Kalshi on Inc. cover: Story here.
Inc. 5000@inc5000Cultivating major investors, creating a scalable tech platform, lobbying regulators: #FemaleFounders500 cover star and Kalshi founder Luana Lopes Lara wants to financialize all aspects of life. She just needs to rewrite the rules of the free market. trib.al/1ICI6H1
12:00 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 51 Views2 LikesCan Prediction Markets Persuade States to Legalize More Gambling? (Covers): “While the legality of sports-related event contracts is being fought in the courts, their current legal status and increasing presence is something more state lawmakers have taken notice of. That may nudge more state lawmakers to go on the offense, rather than defense, Sports Betting Alliance chairman Jeremy Kudon suggested on Tuesday during a panel at NEXT.io’s New York Summit.
Asked about federal efforts to try to rein in prediction markets, Kudon noted he’d built a multi-state legislative practice ‘in large part because Congress doesn’t usually get anything done.’”
BetMGM CEO: ‘Conflict’ In Staying In SBA With Sportsbooks Who Offer Predictions, But We Shouldn’t Quit (InGame): “BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt says that there is a “conflict” in continuing to work with sportsbooks that now offer prediction markets in groups like the Sports Betting Alliance (SBA) and Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA), but remaining a member of those groups is still the best option. …
“Is it a conflict? Absolutely, it is a conflict,” he said. “But actually, what’s best for our industry, what’s best for our players, let’s do that. And so we continue to put money into that organization. So this is a real commitment to us.”
Kalshi's statement that they aren't "the house" may be true at face value, but they do have a market making arm. Kalshi Trading Inc. I'm guessing the implications of this market making function aren't clear to the majority of retail users Factor in the Kalshi rules around settlement disputes (Internal outcome reviews committee, no formal arbitration process, no independent appeal mechanism, and no external ombudsman) and it isn't a far stretch to see how the table can be tilted in Kalshi's favor behind the scenes.
Conflicts of interest like the above are a large part of what traditional CFTC rules address around vertical integration for traditional market participants. I'm hoping the anticipated rules for prediction markets will address the same.