I’m going to give you a couple of facts, and then ask a question.
Kalshi was the No. 1 app in the App Store for free finance apps on Sunday, and No. 33 for ALL apps.
PrizePicks launched Kalshi markets on Friday and was live over the weekend.
What do you think that would mean for Kalshi’s trading volume?
You’d think it would go through the roof, but that wasn’t the case. Kalshi was basically flat for the weekend and for Sunday, per publicly available data:
Previous Saturday+Sunday vs. this weekend: $590 million —> $584M
Previous Sunday vs. this Sunday: $320M —> $315M
If you’re wondering how all of that is possible: I have no idea. Those two data points should be leading to a noticeable uptick in Kalshi’s volume. Some thoughts:
You would rather have people downloading your app than not downloading your app. Kalshi’s Q score is clearly on the rise.
At the same time, it seems clear that Kalshi has some sort of issue with customer acquisition and retention. If you are getting that many people downloading the app, why are they not depositing and trading/betting on the app? We should have seen a corresponding spike in volume, right? Right?
If these new users are depositing and trading, then volume staying flat implies a meaningful drop in retention among existing customers.
And remember, this is with PrizePicks users now being counted in Kalshi’s volume, just like volume from Robinhood users. I understand that the PrizePicks integration was not a full rollout to all eligible users, at least at the start. That might be a slower burn in terms of growth.
Anyway, I saw Kalshi trending at No. 1 on the App Store, and I figured Sunday would be huge.
And one more note: Kalshi volume was more than 97% sports this weekend.
PayNearMe has developed the gaming industry’s first platform that is purpose-built to dramatically improve the end-to-end payment experience. It enables operators to manage the entire payment journey, for all major forms of payment and through the most popular channels. With PayNearMe, operators gain full control of the payment flow, promoting acquisition, retention and efficiency. One platform, one integration—built to solve gaming’s toughest payments problems.
Prediction markets roundup
Fanatics explores launch of prediction market with Crypto.com (Financial Times): “Sports merchandising group Fanatics is in talks to partner with Crypto.com on a push into the fast-growing prediction markets sector in which customers bet on sports, politics and pop culture. The move would give US-based Fanatics exposure to a sector whose popularity has exploded in the past year with firms such as Polymarket and Kalshi growing rapidly and commanding high valuations.”
Fanatics has been rumored to be getting into prediction markets for months behind the scenes, although that talk had died down until this report. FanDuel and DraftKings getting into it gives more cover for any sportsbook looking to follow suit.
The prediction markets legal front: There have been several developments of late.
US Judge ‘Leaning’ Against Kalshi Over Nevada Sports Betting (Bloomberg, paywall): “A federal judge signaled he will side with Nevada gambling regulators trying to thwart prediction market startup Kalshi’s sports wagering offerings in the state. US District Judge Andrew P. Gordon heard arguments Friday in Kalshi Inc.’s lawsuit challenging Nevada gaming authorities from shutting down the platform’s so-called event contracts. It’s a closely watched case that’s testing whether states or the federal government is ultimately in charge of regulating the booming prediction markets industry.
The Bloomberg reporter also noted: “At one point the federal judge called it ‘absurd’ that Congress intended for designated contract markets like Kalshi ‘to turn into nationwide gambling venues on any topic under the sun.’”
I’ve seen a transcript of the hearing, and this part is amazing:
This, of course, comes on the heels of Crypto.com having to pull out of Nevada with its prediction market offering.
Kalshi’s Favorable Tribal Injunction Decision Could Help It Elsewhere (Sportico): “In a significant legal victory for Kalshi, a federal judge this week refused to grant an injunction that would prevent the prediction market operator from offering event contracts on three tribes’ reservations in California. The ruling is the latest twist in several ongoing legal disputes that center on whether Kalshi is offering a sports betting platform subject to state gaming laws and tribal-state compacts, or a distinguishable product legally authorized by the federal Commodity Exchange Act of 1936 and exempt from other laws’ scrutiny.”
Robinhood Can’t Block Massachusetts Sports Betting Enforcement (Bloomberg Law, paywall): “Robinhood can’t shield itself from potential efforts by Massachusetts to enforce state gambling laws against sports prediction markets like Kalshi because its fears of a crackdown aren’t ripe for review, a federal judge said. The ruling puts focus on a hearing next week where a state court judge will consider Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell’s (D) bid to shut down Kalshi’s operations in the state because its market functions as a sportsbook run outside of state oversight. The sports prediction bets that Robinhood users can currently make are run through Kalshi’s markets.
More from attorney Andrew Kim on Twitter: “tl;dr: The federal court in Massachusetts rules that Robinhood can’t sue the Commonwealth over event contracts *right now*, because Robinhood hasn’t adequately shown that the Mass AG is threatening enforcement.”
Kalshi was featured on CBS Sunday Morning: Story here, segment below:
The answers from CEO Tarek Mansour when questioned about Donald Trump Jr.’s role as an advisor were objectively terrible, boiling down to “We have a lot of advisors.”
Cliff Asness Says AQR Is Exploring a Push Into Sports Betting (Bloomberg, paywall): “Cliff Asness, the billionaire co-founder and chief investment officer of AQR Capital Management, said the hedge fund is weighing an expansion into sports betting, potentially becoming the latest Wall Street firm to move into the booming business.”
“This is incipient for us,” Asness said on an episode of the Odd Lots podcast recorded as part of the show’s 10-year anniversary celebrations. “We are considering and looking at it."
Google CEO Responds to Polymarket Bet: Are Prediction Markets Vulnerable To Celebrity Manipulation? (Yahoo): “Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai gave a light, indirect response to the growing discussion about Gemini 3, Google’s next major language model – and it had major implications for predictions markets on Polymarket. The comment came as speculation intensified on Polymarket, where traders now estimate a 69% chance that Google will launch the model on November 22.”
Here’s the tweet, which has six million impressions:
Robinhood Bites Back at Corporate Critiques of Its Sports Betting (Sportico): “Robinhood isn’t worried about the heat some of its competitors are bringing in response to it putting sports prediction-market betting contracts in the same app people invest in stocks. The rival investment platform Public ran a pointed full-page advertisement in The Wall Street Journal print edition this week that said, ‘Wealth is not won in a bet’ above a sub-header reading, ‘If you’re looking for a broker that’s not also your bookie, we invite you to try Public.’ It was a not-so-subtle dig at Robinhood, Webull and a handful of other financial technology companies promoting event contracts, including ones involving sports outcomes, as a new asset class.”
While JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and international, said in a video interview with Sportico on Wednesday he had not yet seen Public’s ad….
“Usually, if someone is trying to do something with a headline, it means they’re trying to be part of a conversation that they’re not in,” Mackenzie said of the newspaper ad. “And that conversation may be in a specific marketplace, but it may be something larger, where they’re just not being spoken about in the overall financial services ecosystem. I don’t look at what the marketing tactics are of others, I look at what our end clients want, and how do I deliver that?”
