Kalshi Expands Sports Betting Menu With Win Totals Markets
Kalshi has self-certified win totals markets with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, another step as it expands the menu of things users can bet on at the prediction markets platform.
The markets will be constructed as follows, according to the CFTC submission:
“Will <team> have <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> wins in the <year> season?”
The comp with sportsbooks is pretty direct, as they post over-under win totals for most teams in professional sports. Kalshi’s market construction will presumably give users a wider array of ways to bet on totals outcomes than just “over or under” a certain number.
The move comes on the heels of Kalshi expanding into single-game markets in recent months. Kalshi has not yet moved into the traditional realms of sportsbooks like point spreads, totals and player propositions on statistical outcomes.
Win or lose for Kalshi
While “win totals” might seem like a pretty niche market, Kalshi continues to see some success and trading volume with futures markets that have more potential volatility. It also provides potentially hundreds of new markets that have ongoing trading for teams across professional and perhaps amateur sports. For instance, with the NFL announcing team schedules this week, win totals for those teams could start becoming a popular futures bet.
Here are some of the rules for the market as outlined by Kalshi:
The sources for resolution of the market are not all sources of information for sports, so it’s not clear to me why they’re included (ie Politico, Semafor, etc.). And the best source of information about win totals is the leagues themselves and data companies that provide official data.
Using a bunch of news outlets that may or may not publish win totals of teams in various sports is an interesting choice. We’ve already seen one example of Kalshi resolving an Oscars market based on a news account that ended up not reporting the final, accurate number.
Other sports markets coming
Kalshi also self-certified a few other sports markets:
“Will the Portland Trailblazers be purchased and moved back to Seattle as the Seattle Supersonics”
“Will player join club before date,” apparently just for soccer transfers
“Will player win the Ballon d’Or in year”