Kalshi nearly eclipsed $2 billion in trading volume for the first time for a seven-day period, thanks to a record Sunday on the final day of the NFL’s regular season.
The prediction market recorded $1.98 billion in volume for the trailing seven days ending on Jan. 4. That’s the best week in Kalshi’s history.
A busy slate of NFL games helped lift Kalshi to $403 million in volume on Sunday alone. That included a back-and-forth contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens in the night game that came down to the final second.
In early December, Kalshi was recording weekly volumes between $1.2 and $1.3 billion.
Kalshi has been adding liquidity of late, which is likely responsible for a lot of the uptick in volume.
Coinbase launched its prediction market product with Kalshi markets on Dec. 17. The Block reported Coinbase had 9.3 million “monthly transacting users” in Q3.
Phantom (crypto wallet) fully launched its prediction markets powered by Kalshi on Dec. 22, after announcing the integration earlier in the month. The Kalshi news item on the integration says Phantom has 20 million users, but obviously monthly active users would be much lower.
Kalshi announced tokenized versions of its markets on Solana at the start of the month.
Kalshi also saw 800,000 downloads in December, although it’s not clear how many of those users are actually turning into depositing/trading customers.
Prediction markets roundup
Bets on Maduro, Jesus Reveal Promise and Risks of Prediction Markets (Bloomberg, paywall): “Even in the age of AI and cryptocurrencies, industries promoted breathlessly by hype merchants, the superlatives tossed around by the creators of the prediction-markets boom stand out. As the year drew to a close, one founder declared that the markets had become ‘the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.’ Another promised that they would, in the not-so-distant future, ‘financialize everything’“ …
“Yet that high-minded vision masks a more awkward reality. For every contract tied to a war or an election or a storm, there are scores hinging on whether the Atlanta Hawks beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night, what South Park characters will say in the next episode, or whether Jesus Christ will return in 2026. (Those who bet against the Lord’s return in 2025 cashed in last week.)”
Monetizing Regime Change (The American Prospect): “Of course insiders shouldn’t be able to get rich off of policy decisions—but even more concerning is the possibility that people are skewing policy outcomes in order to make their bets pay off,” said Sean Vitka, the executive director of Demand Progress. “And questions related to whether or not, and when, military action might be undertaken are especially vulnerable to such manipulation because the president frequently moves with discretion over the timing and (legally or not) without notice to the public or Congress.”
Mainstream coverage of the potential insider trading on Maduro and Venezuela continued to pick up, from the likes of CBS News, the BBC, and NPR.
And more on the subject: There’s Compelling Evidence That Someone Connected to the Trump Administration Profited Off the Invasion of Venezuela by Placing Large Bets on Polymarket (Futurism)
A draft of the promised bill from Rep. Ritchie Torres is also now available, courtesy of Axios. Some of the language from the three-page bill:
IN GENERAL — It shall be unlawful for a covered individual to knowingly engage in a covered transaction if the covered individual—
(1) at the time of the covered transaction, possesses material nonpublic information relevant to such covered transaction; or
(2) may reasonably obtain such material non-public information in the course of performing official duties, including when such information would not otherwise be available to a member of the public exercising reasonable diligence.
Filings in Kalshi vs. Nevada: Per attorney Andrew Kim on Twitter: “Kalshi has filed its reply in support of its motion for a stay pending appeal in the Ninth Circuit. Its 14-page reply accuses Nevada of largely elid[ing] the statutory text.’ … The motion is now fully briefed; the briefs will go to a motions panel of the Ninth Circuit. The motion isn't an emergency motion, so the panel probably won't act right away.”
Click through to the Twitter thread for more from Andrew.
A quick glimpse at affiliate marketing for Kalshi: I am constantly searching for content about prediction markets to share with all of you good people. And I spent a long time living in the SERPs (search engine results pages) working at an affiliate marketing company. What I can see now is affiliates using the same strategy they use for sportsbooks to promote Kalshi: Spamming promo code content. I am not saying this is good or bad; I am just letting you know it exists. Right now, there is a lot more of this kind of “news” about Kalshi than there is actual news:
Had to share this:
Bold@boldleonidasMy entire timeline:
6:02 AM · Jan 5, 2026 · 125K Views250 Replies · 205 Reposts · 4.33K Likes
