Don’t you dare call it a parlay. Or a combo. It’s a Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contract.
Well, at least that’s what Polymarket US is calling it in a filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday. It appears that we could see parlays/combos/CAOCs at the US-facing app soon.
Full filing here.
Sportico’s Dan Bernstein spotted it first:
The filing itself isn’t all that interesting beyond the name. It tells us the underlying for CAOCs “is the joint Settlement Amount of two or more underlying Contracts.” In other words, a parlay.
I have to admit, this is my first time hearing the word “Combinatoric,” which is apparently a real term. Kalshi pioneered the use of the term “combo” for what is the prediction market equivalent of a parlay.
Everyone was having some fun with the name on Twitter:
📊 The Ticker
For Tuesday, May 19, at Kalshi:
Volume: $570.3 million
Sports + parlays: 80.8% of volume
Crypto markets: 11.4% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US volume on Tuesday: $67.9 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
The Senate hearing turns into a prediction markets hearing (The Closing Line): A funny thing happened on the way to a hearing about sports betting integrity: It mostly became a hearing about prediction markets. The Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy held a hearing on Wednesday called “No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America.”
The hearing did address sports betting and integrity throughout. But I think most of us that watched would agree the hearing became a bit of a referendum on the regulation and existence of prediction markets and sports event contracts. …
The most interesting thing: I didn’t really hear any senators defending sports event contracts as something other than gambling. And the skepticism was bipartisan in nature.
Here’s Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, in prepared comments: “Prediction markets have started offering, quote, event contracts on sporting events, which for all intents and purposes are sports bets.”
Click through for more and transcriptions of some key points from senators.
Watch here:
More coverage, with ledes/excerpts:
Politico: Senators are signaling an appetite for pursuing legislation that would create federal standards for prediction markets that allow people to place cheap bets on sports — and just about anything else.
“There’s interest from members on the panel to move forward and get something on the books,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) said Wednesday in an interview after she presided over a Senate Commerce subcommittee hearing on the topic.
Roll Call: Senators at a Commerce Committee panel hearing aired concerns Wednesday about rapidly growing prediction markets, appearing largely unswayed by industry arguments that they are not a form of betting subject to state regulation.
Washington Times: The federal agency that regulates the U.S. prediction markets is a rogue agency making a mockery of congressional intent, Bill Miller, CEO of the American Gaming Association, told Congress on Wednesday.
Consumer Protection Subcommittee Chairman Blackburn Leads Hearing on Protecting Sports Integrity in America (Senate Commerce Republicans press release): Today, U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy, led a hearing examining the rapid expansion of sports betting in the United States, the industry’s growing impact on the integrity of games, and the need to protect vulnerable young people from gambling addiction.
Cantwell Demands Accountability for Prediction Markets Offering Sports Betting (Senate Commerce Democrats press release): U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, pressed witnesses at a Senate Commerce subcommittee hearing on the unchecked expansion of prediction markets into sports gambling — demanding answers about how these platforms are undermining tribal sovereignty, threatening the economic vitality of Indian Country and exposing vulnerable individuals, including minors, to predatory gambling practices. Senator Cantwell drew a parallel to the explosion of subprime mortgage lending leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, warning that the failure to act to rein in prediction markets risks repeating the same disastrous results for millions of Americans.
Anti-prediction market group kicks off DC ad blitz (The Hill): “The group, called FairPredicts, placed multiple ads Wednesday morning at D.C. metro stations, on mobile box trucks and on social media platforms such as X, written in the same design as Kalshi’s April ad campaign. It said the ads aim to ‘call out’ Kalshi for allegedly deceiving users. … In one ad first shared with The Hill, FairPredicts states, ‘Kalshi Lie #3: ‘We aren’t the house.’ If Kalshi is not the house, why do they win when you lose?’ The ad then claims Kalshi Trading LLC is ‘trading against you.’”
Gambling Is Not Investing Urges Senate to Crack Down on Sports Betting via Prediction Markets (press release): Gambling Is Not Investing, a coalition of consumer advocacy organizations representing moms, retirees, family businesses, and other stakeholders, today released a letter sent to Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy Chair Sen. Marsha Blackburn ahead of the Subcommittee’s hearing on sports betting and gaming integrity.
Mick Mulvaney, the coalition’s executive director, raises serious concerns about the rapid expansion of sports betting through prediction market platforms operating outside the consumer safeguards and accountability standards required of licensed sportsbooks.
“Prediction markets are rapidly expanding access to sports gambling while operating outside the safeguards and accountability standards required of licensed sportsbooks,” the coalition wrote. “By offering sports event contracts under the guise of ‘trading’ or ‘investing,’ these platforms are effectively creating a parallel sports betting market that lacks the consumer protections, responsible gaming measures, and regulatory oversight that states and tribal gaming authorities have spent years building.”
SEC Chief Atkins Pumps the Brakes on Prediction-Market Funds (Bloomberg): “The top US securities regulator is delaying the launch of a wave of novel exchange-traded funds that would let investors wager on events such as elections and economic data as the agency weighs how far the $15 trillion ETF wrapper can stretch.”
Statement from Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins at the SEC website: “Exchange-traded funds have been — and remain — a major driver of innovation in the securities markets. ETFs have contributed to increased capital formation and investor choice, reflected in part by the tripling of ETF assets since 2019.”
“Novel products raise novel questions, and I appreciate the willingness fund sponsors have shown in delaying the effectiveness of a number of novel ETFs, including event contract ETFs, while we consider the implications. To ensure we do this in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have instructed the staff to seek input from the public on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”
Baillie Gifford, Layer Global Add $200 Million to Kalshi Funding (Bloomberg): “Kalshi Inc. raised an additional $200 million from two new investors, broadening a funding round that had already brought in $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the situation. Layer Global, led by Anton Levy, and Baillie Gifford are both joining Kalshi as investors for the first time, said the person, who asked not to be named discussing private negotiations.”
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Top Republican pumps brakes on prediction markets regulation (Semafor): “House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, R-Ark., poured cold water on Congress moving to regulate prediction markets anytime soon. During an interview at Semafor’s Banking on the Future Forum Wednesday, Hill said his committee is focused on educating members about current rules around prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, because many lawmakers lack a ‘basic understanding’ of the current roles played by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.”
Scalise sidesteps House resolution banning prediction markets (Punchbowl, paywall)
Ohio bill would ban politicians, staff from Kalshi, Polymarket prediction markets (Ohio Capital Journal): “A newly introduced bill would ban Ohio public officials and their employees from ‘trading’ in prediction markets. …”
“The prediction market environment that we’re hearing about these days, it just doesn’t meet the smell test, right?” state Rep. Sean Brennan, D-Parma, said.
📣 Industry news
Betr Acquires NFA-Registered Broker Ascent Capital Management To Accelerate Launch Of Prediction Markets (press release): Betr, the company behind the world's first real money gaming super app, today announced it has acquired Ascent Capital Management Inc., securing National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration to advance the launch of prediction markets within the Betr super app.
Through the acquisition, Betr becomes a CFTC-registered introducing broker, representing a major milestone in the company’s continued expansion into regulated prediction markets. The transaction allows Betr to accelerate the company’s plans to launch prediction markets powered by Polymarket directly within the Betr super app.
Beginning later this year, Betr plans to make event contracts across sports, politics, culture, and more available to its over one million nationwide paying users through the same seamless experience as Picks, Sportsbook, Casino, and Arcade, all integrated within one wallet and one app.
“Prediction markets represent one of the most exciting evolutions in interactive entertainment and financial technology,” said Joey Levy, Founder and CEO of Betr. “Since starting Betr, we have built our business entirely around serving the modern sports fan at scale. This acquisition is another step toward our vision of creating the first true nationwide real-money gaming app. By securing IB registration through the acquisition of an established broker, we can now focus entirely on launching a seamless, compliant prediction markets experience powered by Polymarket. Our users will soon be able to engage with Picks, Sportsbook, Casino, Arcade, and Predictions all within a single integrated ecosystem.”
dxFeed Introduces Event-Based Contracts Gateway with Kalshi Support (press release): dxFeed, a global provider of market data and financial technology solutions, introduced its Event-Based Contracts (EBC) Market Data Feed with the addition of Kalshi — one of the most prominent venues in the prediction markets space. The new gateway brings real-time and reference data from the platform into dxFeed’s normalized data infrastructure, giving clients a consistent, exchange-grade view of binary outcome markets alongside their other asset class subscriptions.
📖 Everything else you should know/read
‘Everything in Life Should Not Be a Gambling Experience’ (Politico): “The idea is that these platforms serve a similar purpose as markets that allow companies like, say, airlines to place bets to reduce their downside if there’s a jump in the price of jet fuel. It’s a creative argument that has its limits. Rep. Frank Lucas of Oklahoma, another senior Financial Services Committee member, told me his constituents worry ‘that this could get out of hand.’”
The president posted on Truth Social about Kalshi:
Kalshi@KalshiTrump shares his Kalshi odds.
6:19 PM · May 20, 2026 · 210K Views66 Replies · 81 Reposts · 1.7K LikesNo sports betting in Texas? Welcome to the first World Cup of the sports prediction market era (Dallas Morning News): “Welcome to the first World Cup in the age of sports prediction markets, whose popularity over the last year has surged even as legal battles have escalated over states’ authority to regulate some companies. At issue, industry experts said, is a fundamental question: Is the multibillion-dollar sports prediction market industry merely sports betting in disguise?”
Kalshi, Polymarket Rank No. 43 and 48 on CNBC Disruptor 50 List: Should They Be Higher? (DeFi Rate): “Kalshi and Polymarket landed on the CNBC Disruptor 50 for the first time Tuesday, ranked No. 43 and No. 48 on a list dominated by AI companies and topped by Anthropic. The rankings represent a major milestone for the booming industry, though the positions are on the low side considering $15B+ valuations and significant growing disruption beyond the finance and gaming industries. The debut placement drew pushback from industry observers.”
“That feels like it is drastically underrating the level of its disruption across multiple industries,” Dustin Gouker said on X in response to Kalshi’s No. 43 slot.
Mark Cuban: ‘Betting Isn’t the Problem’ (Front Office Sports): “Pro sports has been rocked by gambling scandals and the rise of prediction markets, but Mark Cuban says the real problem isn’t sports betting itself—it’s the explosion of prop bets and the culture of scrutiny and abuse they have fueled.”
“Sports betting is not the problem,” Cuban told Front Office Sports during the latest episode of Portfolio Players. “Whether it’s Kalshi or traditional sports betting, it’s the prop bets that are the problem.”
$200 million in new capital arriving the same week senators from both parties call your product gambling is a remarkable confidence signal. Baillie Gifford in particular is known for decade-long holding periods, which means someone is underwriting the thesis that the "prediction market vs. sports betting" semantic line holds up legally for years. But Atkins delaying the ETF wrapper might matter more than any Senate hearing. ETFs are the mass distribution channel. If event contracts stay in specialized apps, the regulatory fight is about a niche. If they get into $15 trillion in ETF assets, it's a fight nobody can contain.