Is Sports Now Only 70% Of Kalshi's Volume? Not Really.
Roundup: Polymarket fully live in US for iOS, sans waitlist; Truth Social prediction market plans get scaled back.
Let’s start here: Trading volume at Kalshi is still dominated by sports and parlays (or combos). On any given day, those two categories represent most activity at the prediction market platform.
But Kalshi’s general counsel said on Tuesday that just 70% of the prediction market’s trading volume is on sports, lower than the figure usually cited by me and media outlets.
Rick Heaslip — Kalshi’s general counsel and chief regulatory officer — was speaking at a Brookings Institution event:
Here’s the quote:
“So I would I would quibble with a few things. The first and most obvious was the last thing, just because it’s top of mind, is that 90% of our volume is not sports. It’s cyclical. But it is a number that is going down over time. The last I checked it was something like 70%.”
Is that true? If we’re going to lawyer it up, technically you could make a case that it’s true. Volume on contracts for single sports events is definitely declining, and it’s actually far less than 70% in recent weeks.
Here’s a look at volume by category over the trailing 30 days ending May 12:
Wow! Sports event contracts are only 61%! That’s cool, until you realize that combos/parlays (listed as “exotics” in the graphic above) are 26% of volume. Those are markets where users can bundle together a number of different outcomes in a single trade/bet. Think of an example of a trade where the user says “the Los Angeles Lakers will win and LeBron James will score more than 20 points.” That would be two different event contracts bundled together and priced as a single outcome.
While parlays can include cryptocurrency markets, the overwhelming majority of combo volume involves sports event contracts.
So if we combine sports and parlays over the trailing 30, that’s back to 87% of volume, which gets us back to the standard 85-90% of volume at Kalshi involving sports that has been the case for quite some time.
The interesting part is that as the combo product grows and gets more adoption at Kalshi, it’s going to continue to become a higher percentage of volume by the nature of how combos work. A $1 trade by a retail user to win $99 presents as $100 of volume in the data.
We could also see sports volume trend down in the coming months, as the sports calendar is slower over the summer. That’s probably what Heaslip means when he says it’s “cyclical.”
So is volume on sports down to 70% at Kalshi? I would argue that’s not really the case, outside of semantic arguments.
More from the event:
Sen. Schiff: CFTC Can’t Properly Police Expanding Sports Prediction Markets (Covers): “Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff warned Tuesday that federally regulated prediction markets are rapidly blurring into unregulated sports gambling, arguing the current system threatens state sovereignty, overwhelms federal regulators, and exposes retail traders to sophisticated insiders and algorithmic firms. “
“Speaking at a Brookings Institution event in Washington, Schiff said his concerns escalated after congressional hearings on sports betting and prediction markets convinced him the distinction between the two had become increasingly artificial.”
You can watch the event here:
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📊 The Ticker
For Monday, May 11, at Kalshi:
Volume: $515.4 million
Sports + parlays: 83.6% of volume
Crypto markets: 12.3% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US volume on Saturday: $41.1 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Polymarket US Finally Fully Live Without Waitlist, Six Months After Test Launch (InGame): “Polymarket has finally fully opened access to its U.S. exchange for iOS users, ending its waitlist more than six months after it first accepted bets on its Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered platform. Polymarket’s app now immediately shows odds on the homepage, rather than asking for an invitation code as it had done since launching in October. The sign-up process also does not require a code.”
Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market (Wired): “The initial announcement touted Truth Predict as a ‘new product’ that would allow Truth Social users to make trades on sports, inflation, elections, and more through an ‘embedded’ prediction market service.”
“Now, Trump Media is framing the project differently. In its latest public filing, the company indicated that the prediction market “remains in development,” but that its offering would be initially limited to a ‘marketing and promotion collaboration’ with OG.com, the US-based prediction market platform that Crypto.com launched in February 2026.”
Prediction markets and sports betting are “two separate things,” regulator says (Axios): “The chief U.S. regulator of increasingly popular prediction markets says he’ll treat them as financial products, arguing that most people aren’t using prediction markets for ‘entertainment.’” …
“Zoom in: Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tells Axios in a rare interview that prediction markets and sportsbooks are ‘two separate things.’”
“They’re different models. The conventional sportsbooks and casinos are entertainment and they have a lot of authority to be able to kick people out when they keep winning,” Selig said in an interview.
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
New lawsuit:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALBREAKING: Four New Mexico Native American Tribes have sued Kalshi in New Mexico federal court for offering sports-event contracts on their Indian lands on violation of IGRA and their federally-approved gaming compacts.
12:47 AM · May 13, 2026 · 4.01K Views5 Reposts · 25 LikesPolymarket scandal: Indicted Air Force officer claims ‘entire IAF is involved in gambling’ (Jerusalem Post): “An Israeli Air Force officer charged on Monday with allegedly betting in Polymarket over operations conducted by the military claimed that the entire force was involved in gambling. The prosecution demanded that he remain detained until the end of the investigation, and the court rejected the suspect’s petition for house arrest in lieu of actual imprisonment.”
Prediction market ban, other bills edge toward becoming law at Minnesota Capitol (MPR News): “A proposal to ban prediction markets — like Kalshi and Polymarket — is headed to Gov. Tim Walz as part of a broader public safety bill agreed upon by House and Senate lawmakers. Both chambers approved the bill Tuesday by substantial margins.”
“The proposal makes it a felony to host or advertise a prediction market in the state. The sites allow users to wager on a broad range of future events. People involved in creating, managing or facilitating the sites could face felony charges under the bill.”
Kalshi now using Federal Election Committee data to police insider trading (Kalshi head of enforcement Robert DeNault on LinkedIn): Last week, NPR reported on several anonymous campaign staffers who claimed they had profited from trades they made on prediction markets which were placed ahead of polling drops for the campaigns they worked on. The reporting didn’t say which prediction market they traded on, but at Kalshi, campaign staff have always been prohibited from trading in election markets.
All markets are subject to 24/7 surveillance on Kalshi, and we are conducting investigations and enforcement as usual. We also go beyond policing insider trading and try to preemptively block potential insiders from trading where possible. To that end, our team has ingested available data from the Federal Election Commission and is actively screening salaried federal campaign employees from trading on a campaign that they work for. This data helps us prevent or detect trading by campaign insiders. We plan to process similar data published at the state level where it’s available and block state campaign staff from trading on campaigns they’ve been associated with, too.
Let me be abundantly clear: we police all kinds of insider trading and market manipulation at Kalshi. Congress is also considering a law specifically criminalizing campaign staff from trading on their own campaigns – but we aren’t waiting for additional legislation or regulation to take action on market integrity. If we find this type of activity on our platform, it will be referred to law enforcement and subject to exchange disciplinary action.
I encourage all traders to heed the repeated warnings from companies like Kalshi, and from the CFTC and DOJ: engaging in insider or manipulative trading on federal exchanges can get you into serious trouble, and we are continuously working to prevent, detect, and punish it where we find it.
CFTC Reaffirms Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets in Sixth Circuit Amicus Brief (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit asserting the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. The brief was filed in KalshiEx LLC v. Matthew T. Schuler, et al., No. 26-3196.
The filing represents another step in the CFTC’s broader effort to protect its jurisdiction over prediction markets from an ongoing campaign of state encroachment. The amicus brief outlines the comprehensive regulatory scheme designed by Congress, which is implemented by the CFTC, and details how that comprehensive regulatory structure preempts state laws as applied to CFTC-regulated markets.
“The federal district court in Ohio took an improperly narrow view of the Commission’s jurisdiction, and we are asking the Court of Appeals to correct that error,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. “As I’ve said repeatedly, the CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency’s longstanding authority over these markets.”
The CFTC has previously filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin, and secured a preliminary injunction against state regulation of CFTC-regulated prediction markets in Arizona. The CFTC has also filed amicus briefs in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit and the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts.
More on legal wranglings from Steve Ruddock:
📣 Industry news
Kalshi hires Chief Compliance Officer (press release): Sudhir Jain just announced he’s joined Kalshi as Chief Compliance Officer and Head of Regulatory Affairs.
He brings decades of experience spanning derivatives regulation, compliance, risk management, and regulatory consulting across some of the most consequential institutions in the industry.
Mr. Jain began his career in risk management at a trading firm before joining JPMorgan, where he worked across market risk, hedge fund credit, and risk policy and governance. In 2016, he joined the National Futures Association (NFA), where he managed a team of examiners responsible for overseeing a majority of swap dealers operating domestically and abroad. During his tenure, he led the rollout of the NFA’s swap proficiency certification program, designed the NFA’s margin and capital oversight function, and worked closely with the CFTC’s Market Participants Division and Division of Enforcement on regulatory and investigative matters.
In 2021, Mr. Jain was recruited by Paul Atkins to Patomak Global Partners, where he built and ultimately led the firm’s derivatives practice. He also served as head of Patomak’s New York office and as a member of the firm’s executive committee. His practice focused on licensing and registration across the full spectrum of CFTC- and SEC-regulated entities — including DCMs, DCOs, SDs, SBSDs, and FCMs — as well as regulatory investigations and remediation. Mr. Jain led FalconX’s registration as the inaugural crypto-focused swap dealer and PrizePicks’ registration as the first prediction markets-focused FCM.
Kalshi Announces Partnership with MMA Legend Nate Diaz Ahead of His Highly Anticipated Return to the Octagon (press release): Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market, today announced a new multi-tiered partnership with MMA star Nate Diaz timed to his much-anticipated return to the sport on May 16. The deal marks Kalshi’s latest move into live sports and entertainment, aligning the brand with one of the most compelling and iconic fighters in the history of mixed martial arts.
Diaz will make his return to MMA at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, where he will face Mike Perry on the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano card, broadcasting live on Netflix. The event is one of the most talked-about fight nights of the year, and Kalshi’s signature green logo will be prominently displayed across the waistline on the back of Diaz’s shorts, putting the brand front and center before a massive global audience.
The partnership spans multiple touchpoints, including NIL usage of the Nate Diaz name and likeness, billboard placements, a co-branded social media campaign, branded merchandise, and promotional posts. Kalshi’s sponsorship of Diaz’s shorts serves as the cornerstone activation for fight night.
Moomoo US Set to Launch U.S. Prediction Markets Following Regulatory Approval (press release): Moomoo US, Futu’s overseas independent brand, is proud to announce that it has officially obtained regulatory approval from U.S. authorities to operate in Prediction Markets.
This milestone makes moomoo one of the first online brokerages to offer Event Contracts to retail users in the United States. This addition further expands the range of investment options available on moomoo platform and reflects our commitment to innovation for global investors while operating within established regulatory frameworks.
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Polymarket’s Most Contentious Debates Are Being Decided by Anonymous Crypto Votes (Barron’s): “Polymarket has a process in place for disputed resolutions; in many cases, the prediction market has nothing to do with the result. Instead, an anonymous vote takes place outside of the firm’s platform. To participate, voters buy a cryptocurrency called UMA, which is currently valued at 51 cents a token. They debate how the market should resolve in a dedicated server on Discord, the social-media platform.”
Nick Devor@nickdevor_SCOOP: 72% of Polymarket UMA votes have conflicts of interest. The yes-or-no questions posed by Polymarket don’t always have clear answers, but Polymarket has a process in place for disputed resolutions; in many cases, the prediction market has nothing to do with the result.
6:31 PM · May 12, 2026 · 6.2K Views3 Replies · 4 Reposts · 42 LikesPrediction markets are threatening national security. Who’s gonna fix it? (NPR, podcast): “It’s the Wild West of online betting. Prediction markets have been plagued by insider trading allegations, ethical questions and even national security concerns. Today on the show, what are sites like Polymarket doing to self-police, and what other regulations might be necessary? We talk to one U.S. senator with some ideas.”
Prediction markets are national security risks (Deseret News): “As the United States becomes more involved in military actions abroad — whether in Venezuela, Iran or, possibly, Cuba — one thing has become abundantly clear. Congress must find a way to tame prediction markets.”
Combo growth matters for a reason beyond volume accounting: parlays are the signature product form of sportsbooks. If the fastest-growing category at Kalshi looks, prices, and behaves like a DraftKings parlay, Schiff's argument that the distinction is "increasingly artificial" gets harder to dismiss. CFTC can assert exclusive jurisdiction over "financial products" in every circuit court it wants, but every percentage point combos gain makes the product catalog resemble a betting app more than a derivatives exchange. Prediction markets keep winning their regulatory battles while https://thesynthesisai.substack.com/p/the-five-minute-line regulators elsewhere already banned.