Introducing The Prediction Market Startups Database
Roundup: Newsmax may offer prediction markets; House committee to hold hearing with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig; prediction markets conference set for NYC in October.
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A few weeks ago, I put up a Google Form on Twitter and on this newsletter asking if anyone wanted me to highlight their startups.
I didn’t have any idea I would get 70 responses, although I’m guessing this is just the tip of the iceberg.
A few notes before I share the database with you:
I have not vetted all these companies! I have at least clicked on all the websites, and my computer didn’t blow up. But inclusion on this list is not a blessing from me. I am just letting you know they exist.
If you’re not on this list and you want to be, here’s the Google Form to fill out. I will be updating it as new data comes in.
I’ll be talking with some of these companies and tell you more about some of the most interesting ones, either in the newsletter or on the podcast.
I will likely turn this into a standalone page that can be updated outside of this post. I think all the URLs should work in Datawrapper, but do let me know if you spot any issues.
Here are the broad categories as I see them in the database so far:
Trading terminals/aggregators
Data and intelligence layers
Infrastructure/regulatory tech
Social and creator-led markets
Niche/regional exchanges
Ecosystem and retail tools
Check out the list below; stay tuned for more. If you find this useful, let me know!
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Prediction markets roundup
🚨The important stuff
House Committee to hold hearing with CFTC Chair: Thursday, April 16, 2026 – 10:00 AM ET … Full Committee on Agriculture. RE: “For the Purpose of Receiving Testimony from the Honorable Michael S. Selig, Chairman, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission”
👀 I will make a large bet on prediction markets coming up at this hearing.
NCSL Town Hall: Prediction Markets (National Conference of State Legislatures): In just 18 months, prediction markets have rapidly evolved from a niche financial tool into one of the most debated regulatory issues in the country. At the center of the debate is a fundamental question: when people put money on the outcome of an event, is it a financial transaction or a form of wagering? This distinction has important policy and regulatory implications. As federal and state regulators address overlapping jurisdiction, the extent of states’ authority to oversee these platforms remains an open question.
Join us on Wednesday, April 29 at 1 p.m. ET for a live town hall discussion on how prediction markets operate, where they are gaining traction and key considerations for state policymakers.
Event Bets Pose a Problem for Wall Street Firms Looking to Trade (Bloomberg): “Even as some Wall Street players have taken the first steps into this sort of event betting, many big trading firms, including Citadel Securities, IMC Trading and Hudson River Trading have stayed away so far. There are numerous reasons why institutional traders have not joined in, including the lack of regulatory clarity and the relatively light volumes compared with the other areas where they operate. But a new academic paper points to another potential reason: Some of the basic tools that sophisticated traders use to manage risk in other markets aren’t available in event-based bets.”
“At the most basic level, most market makers offset their risk in one type of trading by hedging with other related assets — for options markets, they can do this in the underlying stock market. That is much less easy when the bet is on a celebrity wedding or an election, according to the paper published by Nick Palumbo, a former product manager at the sports betting site DraftKings Inc.”
🧩 The thesis of prediction markets is that institutional adoption will come. And while it’s coming in some respects, Bloomberg points out some of the issues perhaps slowing adoption. It is still early!
DealFlow Events Announces PREDICT: The Prediction Markets Conference(TM) (press release): Prediction markets are emerging as a transformative force across finance and technology, creating significant opportunities for those equipped to understand and leverage them. PREDICT™, the first conference dedicated to the business of prediction markets, will bring together industry leaders and forward-thinking professionals at the New York Marriott Marquis October 6-7, 2026. PREDICT serves as the premier forum for exploring how decentralized forecasting can enhance decision-making, process information more efficiently, and price uncertainty across a wide range of applications.
Hosted by DealFlow Events, PREDICT is designed with an emphasis on meaningful connections and business development. The conference will convene a diverse and influential group of participants, including:
Builders of prediction market platforms
Institutional investors, traders, and market-makers
Economists and academic researchers
Policymakers and legal experts
Steven Dresner, Founder of DealFlow Events said, “Despite growing interest, the underlying mechanics, regulatory contours, and institutional implications of this space remain poorly understood. PREDICT aims to address that issue and bring clarity, insight, and informed dialogue to this expanding ecosystem.”
For more information or to register, visit www.Predict-Conference.com.
⚖️ Legal and regulation
Kalshi Sues Montana, Argues State Reneged On Agreement By Sending New Cease-And-Desist (InGame): “Kalshi has sued Montana, arguing that the state went back on a prior agreement with the prediction market by sending a new cease-and-desist letter last week and was about to bring criminal charges against the business. Kalshi filed the lawsuit Sunday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana.”
Complaint here:
📣 Industry news
Cable News Channel Newsmax Seems To Be Gearing Up To Enter Prediction Market Competition (InGame): “Newsmax could become the first news media business to directly offer regulated prediction market contracts, as the conservative cable news channel — which has ties to ForecastEx — applied for membership in the National Futures Association (NFA) last month.”
“Meanwhile, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Acting Chair Caroline Pham may be back in the world of prediction markets herself. She is listed as the sole principal on an application by her current employer Moonpay, which recently launched prediction market on-ramps for AI agents.”
“Newsmax applied for NFA membership as an introducing broker under the name “Newsmax Markets LLC” on March 19.”
🔍 It was only a matter of time before a media organization of some type started offering prediction markets itself. This is, of course, a slippery slope of combining news and
gamblingtrading directly, beyond earlier media partnerships and prediction markets claiming to be the news themselves.
??? (perps?):
Kalshi@KalshiSomething new 04.27.20265:36 PM · Apr 13, 2026 · 185K Views105 Replies · 48 Reposts · 574 LikesNew for Polymarket:
Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevsWe are introducing a new cursor-based pagination endpoints for /markets and /events - faster, more reliable, and built to scale The old offset-based endpoints will be deprecated in 3 weeks. If you're building on these, now's the time to migrate. Docs & migration details:4:11 PM · Apr 13, 2026 · 17.8K Views12 Replies · 11 Reposts · 188 Likes
📖 Everything else you should know/read
What a new poll says about prediction markets sentiment: “15% of Americans say they have placed a bet on a sporting event using an online event-based prediction market, such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, or Robinhood. This includes 42% of the most “Avid” sports fans and 33% of men ages 18-49. Still, a vast majority of 65% ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ agree that these services should be subject to the same state regulation which applies to other sports betting activities for as long as they allow users to profit predicting the outcomes of sporting events – including 73% of men ages 18-49.”
Prediction Market Making Is Hard (Bloomberg, Matt Levine): “One frequently remarked difference between a prediction market and a traditional sportsbook is that, at a sportsbook, customers are betting against the sportsbook, while in a prediction market they are betting against each other.”
“I tend to be unimpressed by that difference, because it is also true of the stock market: Anyone can buy stock, and anyone can sell stock, so when you buy a share of stock you might theoretically be buying it from some other investor who wants to sell. But in practice you are almost certainly buying it from an electronic trading firm, because those are the firms that make markets on the stock exchange (and, more relevantly, for your retail brokerage). They are posting orders to buy and orders to sell, and if you want to sell or buy you will probably trade with their orders.”
“Similarly, in prediction markets, in the long run, it seems entirely plausible that customers will mostly trade with market makers…”
Kalshi Is Half Right About Prediction Markets and Gambling (Bloomberg): Consumer protection from operator exploitation — the concern that the house is designed to take your money — is indeed different for peer-to-peer exchanges than for sportsbooks. Here Mansour has a point. The structural conflict of interest that makes sportsbooks predatory doesn’t exist in a true exchange model.
But problem gambling — the behavior that causes individual and social harm regardless of whether the operator profits from losses — is unaffected by the peer-to-peer structure. A compulsive bettor chasing losses on Kalshi is identically harmed to a compulsive bettor chasing losses on DraftKings. The mechanism of harm is the same. The exchange model provides no protection here.
🙏 Amen to the bolded part.
How Prediction Markets Turned the World Into a Casino (Bloomberg):
Oops. H/t Gambling Insider:
Politician name checking Kalshi and Polymarket…in not a good way:
Aaron Rupar@atruparOssoff: "The president apparently promised pardons for the entire WH staff, which I guess is the kind of thing you do when you run the WH like a casino. Now, maybe the West Wing is too busy placing Kashi and Polymarket bets on the war to care, but American are getting hurt ... in7:53 PM · Apr 12, 2026 · 1.54M Views247 Replies · 7.55K Reposts · 30.4K Likes
70 prediction market startups responding to a single google form tells you everything about how fast this space is growing
The category breakdown is the most telling part of this. When "infrastructure/regulatory tech" emerges as its own distinct layer in a startup ecosystem, it means the industry has crossed from "will this exist?" to "how does this scale?" — that's roughly where fintech was around 2014. Worth watching the institutional side in parallel: Clear Street is building prime brokerage access to Kalshi, Tradeweb invested, and they hired a former Standard Chartered exec — the https://thesynthesis.ai/journal/the-counterparty.html underneath these 70 startups may matter more than any individual one. Seventy responses to a Google Form is the tip of the iceberg; the CFTC hearing Thursday is the waterline.