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Kalshi volume has unquestionably grown on events outside of sports events of late.
However, much of that growth is coming because of just two types of markets centered on the price of Bitcoin.
Let’s start here: As recently as earlier this year, sports (and parlays, which are almost entirely centered around sports) accounted for more than 90% of volume. But over the course of Q1 and early Q2, Kalshi has grown the share of non-sports markets to about 14% in recent months, even hitting nearly 18% of volume in February.
Things started changing around January, as Kalshi started seeing meaningfully more activity on two types of markets: Bitcoin price by x time, and Bitcoin price up/down over 15-minute increments.
Here’s a look at the growth of crypto markets:
You can see pretty clearly where crypto markets started taking off, and that “other” markets are losing ground in share of volume. (Note: The spike in February for “other” is due in large part to trading on events around the Super Bowl, such as who would perform at the halftime show.)
So far in April, 86% of that crypto volume is on the aforementioned Bitcoin categories, with another 4% on Ethereum 15-minute up/down markets.
So the narrative that Kalshi is more than “just sports” and non-sports markets are growing are both undoubtedly true. And Kalshi deserves credit for growing crypto markets!
But I think some of the above context is needed to frame that growth, as much of the non-sports, non-Bitcoin activity remains a pretty small part of what is happening at Kalshi on any given week. Those other markets have grown in raw dollars, but still represent a small share of Kalshi volume.
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📊 The Ticker
Some quick daily insights into Kalshi volume.
For Saturday, April 18, at Kalshi:
Volume: $538.9M
Sports + parlays markets = 90% of volume
Crypto markets: 8% of volume
Top 10 markets on Saturday:
Trend line for daily volume:
I do a weekly paywalled post that does more with volume over at The Closing Line:
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Polymarket in Talks to Raise Money at About $15 Billion Valuation (The Information, paywall)
Betting on the news raises ethical questions for journalists (The Verge): “Because prediction markets allow users to monetize news, journalists are caught in the crosshairs: what they report (and the information that goes into reporting) suddenly has a dollar amount attached to it. It also means that the information they encounter on the job is potentially very valuable.”
“Earlier this week ProPublica announced it was updating its code of ethics to explicitly mention restrictions on how staff use prediction markets. ProPublica’s code of ethics already has restrictions on how staff can invest in outside companies they cover. But the policy now states that ‘no employee should wager on the outcome of news events on the prediction markets — regardless of whether or not they are involved in coverage of said event.’”
📍Prediction markets often rely on media outlets for resolutions, which makes the issue thorny. The second-order effects of prediction markets — like companies having to deal with the possibility of employees betting on them — are still coming into focus.
⚖️ Legal and regulation
Rep. Brennan Supports Casino Control Commission Action Against Kalshi, Calls for Stronger Financial Penalties (press release): State Rep. Sean Patrick Brennan (D–Parma) today expressed strong support for the Ohio Casino Control Commission following its decision to levy a $5M fine against Kalshi for operating unlicensed sports gaming activities in Ohio.
“The Commission is absolutely right to take enforcement action here,” said Rep. Brennan. “Ohio has clear laws governing sports gaming, and companies that choose to ignore those laws should expect consequences.”
Rep. Brennan also noted that he recently sent a formal letter to the Commission urging the pursuit of a significantly stronger penalty in light of Kalshi’s continued unlawful operations in the state.
“I wrote to the Commission to encourage them to go further,” continued Rep. Brennan. “If enforcement is going to be meaningful, the penalty must be strong enough to actually deter illegal conduct - not simply be absorbed as a cost of doing business.”
Gaming Commission Chair Maynard goes ‘On the Record’ about sports betting, prediction markets (WCVB): “Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chair Jordan Maynard joined WCVB’s “On the Record” to discuss the expansion of sports betting licenses, the shelved online casino gaming bill and the growing debate over prediction markets.”
Ninth Circuit Judge To Prediction Markets: ‘This Can’t Be A Serious Argument’ (InGame): The prediction markets argued that if rule 40.11 was being applied incorrectly, then that is simply a matter for the CFTC and doesn’t change whether state law applies.
“Regardless of whether 40.11 bans sports event contracts isn’t at issue here,” Dvoretzky said. “At issue is whether the CEA preempts state law. Whether 40.11 bans sports event contracts is a matter for the CFTC to address, not a matter for Nevada to address.”
Nelson was very critical of this line of argument.
“That can’t be a serious argument,” he said. “It’s self-certification. You can put up anything you want.”
If you missed the fun of last week’s House hearing:
The Five Most Interesting Moments From Thursday's Congressional Hearing On The CFTC
·
Correction: This story misidentified a member of the House Agriculture Committee as Rep. Mike Flood. The quoted material should have been attributed to Rep. Don Bacon. The Event Horizon regrets the error.
Wanna bet? Washington steps up scrutiny of prediction markets (The Associated Press): “In a highly polarized Congress, the need to guard against the prediction markets being used for insider trading has become rare common ground. Members of both parties pressed the leader of a typically low-profile regulatory agency on the issue during a hearing on Thursday. The market debate is also drawing in the White House, potential presidential candidates and state leaders.”
“It’s a national conversation about what it means to have market integrity,” said Kristin Johnson, a former commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets in the U.S.”
📣 Industry news
Volcano and tsunami markets?: Polymarket US self-certified some natural disaster-themed markets, in addition to some others.
Incentives at CME?:
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_CME Group appears to be introducing a prediction market volume incentive program, effective May 1.
4:51 PM · Apr 17, 2026 · 9.35K Views3 Replies · 4 Reposts · 44 Likes
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Do prediction market bettors make anything better? (NPR, Planet Money podcast): “These prediction market companies exist because they’ve convinced regulators that they’re also great for the rest of us. They’re adding new knowledge to the world. Making us more informed about the future. On today’s episode, the case Kalshi has been making to regulators, the courts and the public as to why what looks like gambling and seems like gambling … is not. Why that argument’s kinda been working. And – if no one stops them – what prediction markets could do to our future.”
Philip Bump: Are prediction markets crowdsourced wisdom — or just prop bets? (CT Insider): “There was a time, hard as it may be for young people to believe, when no one knew what anyone else thought. Not literally of course; one was aware of what family members believed, or coworkers, or neighbors. But everyone in your town? People across the state? The country? Nope. Guesswork.”
Wanna Bet? | In the world of prediction markets, anything could be a gamble. (34th Street): “Prediction markets are predominantly known for these kinds of wagers, as users put money down on the odds of Trump praising Allah for the third time or on whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth before 2027. However, beyond a place to gamble on ludicrous events, these platforms have been increasingly leveraged as financial tools. For some Penn students, betting on Kalshi isn’t just a way of potentially making money off of SNL performances—instead, it’s something more akin to strategically using the stock market.”
Investing is starting to look like a casino (Morning Brew): “The investment strategies of many rank-and-file workers could be sponsored by Red Bull because of how adrenaline-inducing they’ve become. Americans are embracing speculative assets like crypto and prediction market bets to complement the diversified stock and bond portfolios your grandparents used to grow their piggy banks.”
Betting your future: Is gambling a threat to your career and well-being? (Army.mil): “When a service member is struggling, the signs can often point to familiar stressors like anxiety, depression, or sleep problems. But according to military mental health experts, these symptoms can mask a deeper, often hidden issue: problem gambling. As access to online betting and new, unregulated prediction markets grows, this quiet threat poses a direct risk to the financial stability, mental health, and overall readiness of the force — prompting the Department of War to take a closer look.”
👀 That’s the official Army website…
Billionaire Investor Warns Sports Prediction Markets Harm Men (Bloomberg): “John Arnold, the billionaire energy trader-turned-philanthropist, made his fortune by predicting the direction of markets. Now, he’s sounding the alarm on fast-growing prediction markets, saying they’re harmful to young men and boys.”
The latest Forecasting Substack:
The startup database
I created a database of startups in the prediction markets industry of companies that asked to be listed. That’s below.
Want to be a part of the database? Fill out this Google Form. I will try to add new companies soon… I’ve had more responses since I launched it.
The 15-minute BTC up/down structure is functionally a binary option, a product the CFTC kept confined to Nadex for years before Kalshi wrapped it under the event-contract framing. One dollar of conviction can cycle through 96 markets a day, so volume compounds off a tiny participant base. Worth separating turnover from unique directional bets when comparing to Polymarket's $15B raise, where election contracts settled once with sticky capital. A sports-parlay plus rapid-cycle BTC mix looks more like a retail trading venue than a forecasting exchange.
I really like the 5-minute Bitcoin markets on Polymarket. Those are really addictive