In the latest podcast, Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me to talk about Kalshi’s new anti-insider trading initiatives, along with all the other events from a busy week of prediction markets news.
You can also listen on Spotify.
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Prediction markets roundup
The Superb Owl: To state the obvious, yesterday was the Super Bowl, which was a big day for prediction markets! I’ll hopefully be able to tell you the total trading volume at Kalshi sometime tomorrow. The “who will win the Super Bowl” market ended up at half a billion dollars by itself, more than $300 million traded on Sunday.
Kalshi had a few issues on Sunday, but the app did appear to stay up for trading all day long, which I made even odds at DG Sportsbook/DGMarket.
The biggest weirdness of the day was not about the game, but about the halftime performers. Most prediction markets offered event contracts on performers appearing alongside Bad Bunny. While Cardi B appeared at the show, there was some confusion and problems with the rules — most notably at Kalshi — about whether she “performed.” I wrote about it last night; see below.
Later in the night, Kalshi suspended the market, then resolved it to 26 cents per share for “yes” holders and 74 cents for “no” holders. Here’s what the addendum to the market:
Important information: Due to ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance’, Kalshi is invoking Rule 6.3(c) to settle this market to the last traded price before trading was paused. Those prices are $0.26 for Yes holders and $0.74 for No holders. Conversely, per Kalshi’s full rules, celebrities that danced in the background during the halftime show but did not visibly sing or play an instrument did not “perform” for purposes of the contract.
Meanwhile, another major prediction market, Crypto.com offered the market and quickly graded it as a “yes,” because its rules were much clearer.
People were having trouble getting the money they deposited, according to both Kalshi’s Discord and one of the founders. A scrolling message on the site and app also told users that deposits were delayed.
Luana Lopes Lara@luanalopeslaraSome deposits are delayed because of the amount of traffic and deposits we’re getting. Your money is safe and on the way, it will just take longer to land.12:04 AM · Feb 9, 2026 · 63.7K Views217 Replies · 19 Reposts · 340 Likes
Kalshi rolled out a new interface:
Kalshi@KalshiMajor upgrade before kickoff Live odds, plays, and game stats all in one place4:41 PM · Feb 8, 2026 · 215K Views85 Replies · 33 Reposts · 236 LikesKalshi was advertising on the Vegas Strip this week:
Bill Krackomberger@BillKrackmanPrediction markets are for sure trying to crack mainstream. Taking over the most expensive billboard in town.
5:31 PM · Feb 8, 2026 · 18.9K Views19 Replies · 8 Reposts · 140 LikesSomehow, Polymarket only had the moneyline available on the US app, and nothing else.
Polymarket had a “portal” for the Super Bowl:
Polymarket@PolymarketThere's two sides to every trade. The Polymarket Portal is now live in Boston & Seattle. Boston: 166 Canal St, Boston, MA 02114 Seattle: 589 Occidental Ave S, Seattle, WA 98134 Let the games begin. 🏈
12:53 AM · Feb 7, 2026 · 2.7M Views202 Replies · 89 Reposts · 871 LikesWelcome to the Prediction-Market Super Bowl (Front Office Sports): “If you think you’ve been hearing more about prediction-market platforms this week, it’s not your imagination—companies are trying to capitalize on the biggest sports-betting day of the year.”
Giannis Antetokounmpo joins Kalshi as a shareholder, marking a new venture for the NBA star (The Associated Press): “Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has become a shareholder in Kalshi, a major prediction market with a wide array of sports trading opportunities. Antetokounmpo announced the partnership Friday.”
“The internet is full of opinions. I decided it was time to make some of my own,” Antetokounmpo posted on social media. “Today, I’m joining Kalshi as a shareholder.”
“Antetokounmpo was the subject of widespread rumors ahead of Thursday’s NBA trade deadline. But the Bucks decided to keep the two-time MVP. In the days leading up to the deadline, Kalshi had several posts on X highlighting its event contracts on Antetokounmpo’s trade market and the fluctuating odds connected to the teams believed to be in the mix for his services.”
Meanwhile, from Pro Football Talk … NFL prohibits players from ownership interest in prediction markets companies: “NFL players may not own a stake,” chief NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said via email to PFT.
However, Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley is reportedly invested in Polymarket.
💡My take: I am going to try to write about this for Tuesday in greater length. Suffice it to say, this was received poorly from a lot of circles, especially from people on Twitter.
Polymarket parent firm files trademark applications for ‘POLY’ amid token launch plans (The Block): “Blockratize Inc., the company behind crypto-powered predictions platform Polymarket, has filed trademark applications in the U.S. for the wordmarks ‘POLY’ and ‘$POLY,’ according to records from the United States Patent and Trademark Office, adding to signals around a potential token launch.
“Both applications were filed on Feb. 4, though did not appear on the site until early Friday. They are currently listed as ‘live’ and ‘pending,’ with the USPTO noting that they have met minimum filing requirements but have not yet been assigned to an examining attorney.”
All bets are on | Gambling by a new name is coming to Utah — and everywhere else (Deseret News): “Imagine it’s Sunday morning inside a church somewhere in Utah, and a crisply dressed young man sits in a pew waiting for services to begin, scrolling on his phone.”
“He opens an app called Kalshi. Or Polymarket. Or Fanatics. Any one of the ‘prediction market’ platforms that have become available in Utah in the past six months. He’s a sports fan, and this Sunday happens to be the Super Bowl. He thinks Seattle is going to take it. The chances he’s right are 67%, according to the app. So he presses a button and ‘purchases an event contract’ for $5 that, if Seattle loses, will be lost; and if Seattle wins, will pay $8.”
“Then the young man puts his phone away and prepares for services to begin without a tingle of doubt or shame, because this transaction is absolutely not gambling.”
“Or so the industry supporting it would have him believe.”
America’s prediction market bubble is here (Business Insider): “Prediction markets are everywhere right now. The Golden Globes! The Oscars! The airwaves! For the Super Bowl, people can use prediction markets not only to wager on the outcome of the big game but also on which commercials will run and what song Bad Bunny will play first. Sportsbooks, media companies, and even traditional investment entities seem to want to get in on prediction market action. The enthusiasm makes sense given how industry boosters talk about these markets. To them, betting on anything and everything is the next frontier of finance.”
“But the rhetoric and the reality still don’t line up. There’s a lot of chatter about big institutions using prediction markets as hedges for everything from inflation to elections to the weather, but the amount of money flowing through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket is tiny compared to the stock market or even crypto.”
“Everything is gambling now”: How betting is taking over America (Axios): “The bottom line: The era of online gambling prohibition increasingly feels like ancient times.”
Apparently, you will need to be KYC’d to trade Kalshi contracts on Solana:
SKi🦉@TheNotoriousSKiLooks like Kalshi are waiting until just after the Super Bowl before they start requiring KYC (including; Name, Address, Contact Info & Government ID) from onchain users trading their prediction market outcome tokens on Solana
Phantom @phantomThe Big Game is almost here 🏈 Tap into our live event hub to track, predict, and chat about what’s happening on and off the field. Check it all out on the app.10:40 PM · Feb 7, 2026 · 25.9K Views9 Replies · 2 Reposts · 64 LikesOdds of Jesus Christ appearing in 2026 double, beating return on bitcoin (CoinDesk): “Traders on prediction market Polymarket have doubled the implied odds of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurring by year-end, turning one of the platform’s stranger contracts into a better performer than bitcoin. The market, titled ‘Will Jesus return in 2026,’ traded around 4 cents on Friday, implying a roughly 4% chance. That’s up from a low of about 1.8% on Jan. 3, meaning the ‘Yes’ side has gained more than 120% in just over a month.”
ICYMI Friday:
Kalshi chief Tarek Mansour: ‘We’re pricing the future’ (Financial Times, paywall)
