In the latest podcast from The Event Horizon, Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto talks with me about the friendly stance toward prediction markets from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and what it means.
You can also listen on Spotify.
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Prediction markets roundup
Prediction markets have a fake news problem (Axios): “Prediction markets have emerged as an unlikely engine of viral misinformation, pumping out false, misleading and context-free claims to millions of people on social media. … Prediction markets promise clarity in a world of fragmentation and AI slop. But when they try to act as authoritative ‘news’ sources, the noise only gets louder.”
Super Bowl host California bans sports betting, but prediction markets found a loophole (LA Times): “Green Day says ‘MAGA’ while playing during the Super Bowl opening ceremony, Bad Bunny follows by starting off the halftime show with ‘Baile Inolvidable,’ and soccer star Lionel Messi takes in the game at Santa Clara’s Levi’s Stadium. Each of those possibilities is available to put money on via prediction market behemoth Kalshi, but it’s other offerings by Kalshi and similar platforms that have irked California lawmakers, gaming tribes and even the NFL: wagers on the game that mimic traditional sports bets that are, for the time being, legal to make.”
The Wild Markets Behind Polymarket’s ‘Truth Machine’ (Wall Street Journal, paywall): “The predictions derived from Polymarket’s betting action—Coplan has called the operation a ‘global truth machine’ — are now cropping up everywhere. Analysts and national news outlets cite them regularly. Viewers of the Golden Globes saw them on their TV screens. Google, X, the National Hockey League and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, have all struck data partnerships with Polymarket. Yet for all its mainstream success, Polymarket hasn’t managed to stamp out controversy tied to its freewheeling markets, most of which remain unregulated.”
Polymarket is out of Nevada, for now:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGAL“Trading not allowed in Nevada. Tap to learn more.” It’s official. Polymarket exits Nevada. (h/t @ManOfTheLibrary)
11:28 PM · Jan 31, 2026 · 18.2K Views6 Replies · 7 Reposts · 71 LikesPolymarket Barred From Nevada for at Least Two Weeks (Front Office Sports): “Nevada’s gaming regulator scored a temporary win in its lawsuit against Polymarket, with a court ruling the prediction-market platform is prohibited from offering event contracts in the state for at least two weeks. The Nevada Gaming Control Board — which regulates sports betting in the state — sued Blockratize Inc., the corporate entity behind Polymarket, on Jan. 15. The complaint, filed in Nevada state court, claims ‘Polymarket’s event contracts are wagers.’”
So about the CFTC and new approvals…: Xchange Alpha LLC won approval from the CFTC as a designated contract market. H/T Sportico’s Dan Bernstein on the news. After a Bloomberg report that some DCMs had gotten pushed through quickly under acting Chair Caroline Pham, it’s not clear that things will slow down under new Chair Michael Selig.
The chief regulatory officer of the company, Bella Rozenberg, posted about the approval on LinkedIn, saying the exchange will launch this year. She worked at the CFTC for nearly 14 years. Here’s what she wrote:
I am thrilled to announce that Xchange Alpha, LLC has received Designated Contract Market (DCM) status from the CFTC, effective January 30, 2026.
The review process—from our submission on July 10, 2025, to approval—took approximately 204 days, placing it among one of the more efficient recent DCM approvals relative to the statutory 180-day review baseline.
As a fully intermediated futures exchange, we will list traditionally structured futures contracts. We anticipate launching in late summer 2026.
Please stay tuned for more details on our innovative contracts!
Christian Pezzuto is listed as the CEO of the company.
The company’s website doesn’t offer much in the way of details.
The head of the Office of Personnel Management…: …is apparently aware you can bet on the government shutdown and how it resolves:
Scott Kupor@skuporTIL - apparently people will bet on literally anything, including when/whether @USOPM will update it's website for the government shutdown. G-d bless America :)1:53 AM · Jan 31, 2026 · 61.5K Views76 Replies · 14 Reposts · 195 LikesNote how he calls it betting!
And some advice to Kalshi from one trader:
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPIThe salience of this among the OPM Director and now various trolls and weirdos inside and outside the government has made using OPM as the resolution source for a shutdown untenable going forward. @Kalshi should be amending their contract in the future to use different criteria.
Scott Kupor @skuporTIL - apparently people will bet on literally anything, including when/whether @USOPM will update it's website for the government shutdown. G-d bless America :)1:55 AM · Jan 31, 2026 · 3.46K Views4 Replies · 1 Repost · 26 Likes
Polymarket is coming to Jupiter:
Jupiter@JupiterExchangeFor the first time, @Polymarket is coming to Solana. On Jupiter. Integrating Polymarket is primed for making Jupiter the most innovative predictions platform on Solana Trade all the markets you want. On one onchain platform. The best user-experience on Solana 🤝 The biggest6:47 AM · Feb 1, 2026 · 364K Views286 Replies · 286 Reposts · 1.86K LikesIt wasn’t entirely clear what, if any, impact this would have on an already active deal between Jupiter and Kalshi.
Kalshi Parlays Break Records, Make More Money Than Non-Sports Markets, After Robinhood Launch (InGame): “The day of the conference championship games set new records for overall volume and fee revenue on Kalshi, based on InGame’s analysis of Kalshi’s fees. Users traded $543.1 million worth of contracts in total and the exchange made $5.46 million worth of fees. Of that volume figure, $505.8 million, or 93%, was on sports.”
What do prediction markets like Kalshi cost us? (Engadget, podcast): “Somehow, we live in a world where people can bet on practically anything using sites like Polymarket and Kalshi. In this episode, Devindra and Engadget Senior Reporter Karissa Bell dive into the world of prediction markets. How did we get here? And is endless betting having an effect on the real world?”
Prediction markets allow trading on Super Bowl commercials, prompting insider trading questions (CNBC): “While straight sports predictions, such as rushing yards, are unknown events, there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who know whether their company is planning to run a Super Bowl commercial. That makes some contracts ripe for insider trading.”
