The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next?
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets.
Show notes:
The Event Horizon briefing
A quick look at what matters most in prediction markets.
📍 The Big Story
Punchbowl clarifies House speaker’s statement on election markets
Late last week, Punchbowl reported that Johnson said that he believed that Republicans were going to increase their majority in the House, and that foreigners were swaying prediction markets.
Then on Friday, Punchbowl clarified Johnson’s statement:
Presumably he was referring at least in part to Polymarket’s international exchange, which does not (technically) allow US residents to trade.
Either way, he doesn’t really deal with the reality that Republicans are not favored to win the House no matter the platform, and whether Americans or foreigners are trading on the outcome. The odds are just slightly more tilted toward the Democrats at Polymarket than at Kalshi.
So, we have a few possibilities to square what Johnson was saying:
Johnson believes foreign trading on an international market is distorting that market and perhaps influencing US markets as well.
Johnson was talking only about foreign prediction markets, without making any claim about Kalshi.
Foreign trading is pushing Polymarket somewhat further toward Democrats than the US market, although the difference between the two is relatively small (Let’s be clear, that’s almost certainly not what he was trying to communicate.)
Johnson was trying to sow doubt about what the odds for Republicans to win the House actually are.
I’ll take some version of No. 4.
Whatever distinction he intended, his underlying argument still doesn’t account for Kalshi giving Democrats a large advantage in the House market.
At the end of the day, Johnson can question the usefulness of a foreign prediction market. But that doesn’t explain why a US CFTC-regulated prediction market available to American traders is producing essentially the same directional signal.
🔭 What To Watch For
Will anything happen in Washington state?
Kalshi is taking steps not to allow users in Washington, but the company has filed a new motion:
Kalshi asks King County judge to reconsider Washington injunction on event contracts (KOMO): “The motion centers on an Aug. 18 agreement involving North American Derivatives Exchange Inc., doing business as OG. Kalshi says OG, like Kalshi, is a designated contract market licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and offers event contracts to consumers in Washington.”
🔥 Hot Market
Bitcoin to the moon
The bull run for crypto has people trading a lot on Bitcoin markets. Here’s one about the high-water mark for BTC, with more than $4 million in volume.
📝 New Event Contracts
New self-certifications listed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission:
Novig tennis markets:
Kalshi sports + space markets:
💬 Quote Of The Day
Trader Caleb Davies, the person behind this account, could honestly get QOTD every day:
📊 Volume Tracking For Saturday, Aug. 22
Kalshi volume: $1.71 billion
Sports + parlays: 82.3% of volume (33% sports + 49.3% parlays)
Crypto markets: 15.9% of volume
Trend line from Ticker Tracker:
Volume on other platforms:
Polymarket US: $147.2 million
Rothera: $34.9 million
Novig: Coming soon
Underdog: $25.8 million
ProphetX: $3.8 million
DraftKings Exchange: $1.2 million
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News roundup
Everything else important that happened in or was written about prediction markets:
🚨 Important stuff
Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says (CNN): “The prediction site Polymarket referred dozens of accounts that showed signs of potential military insider trading to the Justice Department for investigation, a senior company official told CNN. The referrals, which have not been previously disclosed, pertained to accounts flagged by a watchdog group in a report published Thursday, but the referrals predated the report.”
Polymarket US Fully Launches Parlays On Same Day Kalshi Adds Parlay Maker Fees (InGame): “With a new app update that went live Thursday, parlays are now available to ordinary Polymarket US customers. In the latest version of the app, a ‘build a combo’ button appears at the bottom of the screen on the app home page. …”
“The Kalshi maker fees will be priced at half of the rate of Kalshi’s taker fees, which is higher than most other maker fees on Kalshi. Like all Kalshi fees, the exact rate depends on the price of the contracts involved. There will still be no maker fees for uncorrelated NFL parlays.”
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Nevada cites North Carolina tax in battle over prediction markets (CDC Gaming): “The Nevada attorney general’s office has told a federal appeals court that by embracing a tax on their trading revenue in North Carolina, Kalshi is admitting that a state has the power to regulate its operations in the state.”
“‘A stunning about-face, which would mean that (at a minimum) Kalshi cannot evade Nevada’s taxing provisions,’ Nevada Deputy Attorney General Abigail Pace wrote in papers filed Thursday with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco.”
CFTC prediction markets meeting: 6 things we noticed in innovation committee chat (SBC Americas): “That committee held its first meeting on Thursday, Aug. 21, and saved the prediction markets chat until last. From verbal sparring to “fake news”, here are six items that stood out from the discussion.”
In New Mexico, Kalshi All-In On Federal Preemption In Tribal Lawsuit (InGame): “Leaning into the argument that the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) supersedes the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and preempts tribal ordinances and regulations, Kalshi submitted a court response Wednesday asserting its right to continue operating on tribal land in New Mexico.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
The prediction markets are catching on with Wall Street interns (Business Insider): “Morgan Stanley’s equity research team asked the firm’s summer internsabout both their AI use and, for the first time, betting habits as part of its annual survey. More than 500 North American interns, most of whom are 21 or younger, participated in this year’s survey, which was conducted in June and published in August. More than a quarter of the interns said they’d used a betting or prediction market app in the past year, with Kalshi and Polymarket as the top two choices. Around 14% of those of betters said they’d used Kalshi, and 55% said they have multiple betting apps.”
“Biblical Levels of Insider Trading”: New Prediction Market Monetizes Anything in Livestreams (Futurism): “Called ‘CRSHMARKET,’ the platform purportedly allows users to bet on potentially any event that happens in a livestream. Gamers playing on Twitch and weird ‘IRL streamers’ that film themselves being a public nuisance on Kick are now effectively fodder for gamblers.
‘What if any livestream could become a prediction market?’ the company asked in a post on X that recently went viral, which included a brief video ad. ‘Will her Uber arrive in under 2 minutes? Will he get her phone number? Will he score the next goal?’
Synthetic everything is warping America (Axios): “A shadowy polling firm confessed this week to faking survey results in two marquee races — then claimed the entire operation was a ‘short-term social experiment’ on misinformation. …”
“The intrigue: The rise of prediction markets has added a financial incentive for political manipulation.”
Prediction markets, facing no Mississippi regulations, are targeting college campuses, policy expert warns (Mississippi Today): “But there is a new risk many parents don’t know exists. Their child can now place real-money bets on sports from a dorm room, despite Mississippi’s prohibition on online sports gambling.”
I wonder too:
Constant@x0constanti wonder if this legend knows his PNL is public
5:43 PM · Aug 22, 2026 · 13.6K Views8 Replies · 2 Reposts · 86 Likes
