The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act.
Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings:
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of news around stuff other than sports event contracts!
Show notes:
A crazy Wisconsin primary
The CFTC was busy:
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The Event Horizon briefing
A quick look at what matters most in prediction markets.
📍 The Big Story
Nevada vs. Kalshi court battle ramps up again
Backstory: Kalshi is supposed to be geofencing users from accessing the app and site in Nevada. I can say that I was effectively blocked when in Las Vegas this week, but I also didn’t try particularly hard to get around it.
Then on Friday, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Kalshi wasn’t doing enough. From The Nevada Independent:
The Gaming Control Board said in a late Friday court filing in Carson City that prediction market Kalshi has not complied with a judge’s order to stop offering sports, election and entertainment betting in the state by the Aug. 12 deadline and should face fines of $120,000 a day.
In the filing, the control board said Kalshi “has profited enormously from its continued violations of Nevada law” and state investigators were able to purchase multiple event contracts in the banned categories from Nevada through mobile phones, “none of which should have been possible under the court’s order. … In its agreement with the state, Kalshi utilized GeoComply…
Kalshi fired back with a letter that you can see below:
“You are wrong that Kalshi did not have an effective geofencing solution as of August 12, and to argue otherwise is a complete mischaracterization of the record.”
One other part of the letter: “Those investigators were able to place a trade because they had violated federal law by misrepresenting their residence to Kalshi, and, in at least one instance, actively worked to circumvent the Kalshi restrictions that blocked the investigator from trading.”
I am not a lawyer and won’t weigh in on the “federal law” part. But regulators should be stress testing to see if the rules are being met. If there are ways to defeat the geolocation, that would seem to mean more can be done. Not for nothing, Nevada’s account seems to dovetail with this report in Michigan:
Kalshi Launches First Full Geofence, But It Only Works After Optional App Update (InGame): “Kalshi has implemented true geofencing for the first time, blocking sports trades in Nevada and Michigan, with Washington on the way soon, but the system in Michigan only works after an app update that is not required. … The geofence works, but only for users who have installed the latest version of the Kalshi app on mobile. … An InGame reporter was able to place bets on sporting events from Michigan, using an account registered to an Indiana address.”
Nevada reportedly posted a statement as well, although I can’t see it on the NGCB site currently:
“Kalshi’s accusations are baseless, and they cannot obscure the fact that Kalshi missed its agreed-upon deadline to comply with Nevada law. Kalshi’s consistent failures to comply with the court’s orders left the Board with no choice but to advise the court of Kalshi’s noncompliance.”
And finally, I would say this is some good context for all of this:
🔭 What To Watch For
Will President Trump be at the White House meeting involving prediction markets this week?
And more from The Block:
President Donald Trump is expected to attend a White House meeting on Wednesday with executives from the cryptocurrency and prediction market industries, two people familiar with the plans told The Block.
🔥 Hot Market
Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards (Yahoo): “Polymarket has opened prediction markets on Pokemon card prices, letting traders wager on whether individual cards and sealed products gain or lose value. The contracts track ungraded prices from Collectr, a collectibles pricing app. More than a dozen Pokemon markets now trade on the platform, and fresh ones keep arriving as older contracts settle.”
📝 New Event Contracts
Self-certifications recently listed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission:
These Gemini tennis markets are the only new listings:
💬 Quote Of The Day
📊 Volume Tracking For Saturday, Aug. 15
Kalshi volume: $1.58 billion
Sports + parlays: 36% + 51.4% = 87.4% of volume
Crypto markets: 11.9% of volume
Trend line from Ticker Tracker:
News roundup
Everything else important that happened in or was written about prediction markets:
🚨 Important stuff
Another IAF officer arrested after placing Polymarket bets on attacks in Iran, Yemen (Jerusalem Post): “Another Israeli Air Force officer has been arrested on suspicion of breach of trust after allegedly placing bets on Polymarket on attacks in Iran and Yemen, N12 reported on Sunday. The officer, who is an IAF major, faces a hearing for the use of sensitive information to gamble on Polymarket. In previous cases the suspects have been indicted on the more serious charges of exploiting classified military information to place wagers on Polymarket.”
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Underdog Sued By Aristotle Inc. On Heels Of IG Group Sale (InGame): “When Aristotle sold its licenses, the company obtained an undisclosed number of shares in Underdog. And as a result of Underdog’s sale to trading firm IG Group, Aristotle would seemingly be poised to realize a corresponding percentage of the $1.3 billion sale. … Reached for comment about the lawsuit, a representative for Aristotle said, ‘We believe the filing speaks for itself, and we don’t have any comments outside of what is in the filing.’ So we will know more about the underlying factual claims when the complaint surfaces.”
Kalshi denied in Connecticut:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALBREAKING: Connecticut federal court rebukes CFTC’s declaration of “market emergency” and denies Kalshi’s motion for injunction pending appeal. “As an administrative agency, the CFTC lacks the authority to dictate an order that conflicts with this Court’s decision.”
2:39 AM · Aug 16, 2026 · 10.1K Views1 Reply · 7 Reposts · 31 Likes
📣 Industry news
This seems useful!:
Adjacent@AdjacentMarketsToday we are launching a Resolution and Dispute database. Submit markets that are poorly settled, vaguely worded, subject to oracle manipulations or anything else that results in traders not knowing how a market may or may not settle. Submit via the form or your agent with >
7:27 PM · Aug 13, 2026 · 4.85K Views3 Replies · 3 Reposts · 31 LikesAt Kalshi:
weathermonkey@wxmonkemaker fees on kalshi parlays starting aug 20. it always seemed like a bit of a loophole to me that parlays had no maker fees while most sports markets did (was nice for arbs). not surprising given parlays are a large portion of exchange vol
weathermonkey @wxmonkesounds like maker fees are coming to kalshi RFQ quoters https://t.co/rVjn67ZQOC2:13 PM · Aug 15, 2026 · 14.8K Views6 Replies · 1 Repost · 46 Likes
📖 Everything else you should know/read
On Substack:
Seen on Google:
My podcast over at The Closing Line:
Opinion: Utah parents — there’s a bookie in your college freshman’s pocket (Deseret News): “Utah has not legalized sports betting. But this fall, an 18-year-old freshman can nonetheless walk into a dorm room, pull out their phone and wager real money on sports through a so-called ‘prediction market. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users as young as 18 all across the country gamble on everything from sports to what word might be mentioned at a press conference.”
Why DraftKings’ prediction markets could boost sports betting this Fall (Yahoo, video): “Macquarie Group senior gaming, lodging & theatres analyst Chad Beynon joins Market Domination to explain why he believes DraftKings’ prediction markets could drive fresh momentum for sports betting this fall—and position the company for a strong football season.”
Kalshi’s CEO is racing to build a futures market for AI’s most precious resource, which could be worth $100 trillion by 2030 (Fortune): “But even as compute futures represent a huge opportunity, the history of commodities markets shows the process for building such products can be slow, complicated and uncertain. Here’s how that process is likely to play out in the compute field.”
From Straight to the Point:
