I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.
Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story. But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast.
But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record on Fridays instead of Thursday from now on. Maybe.
Here was my original piece on Kalshi’s potential markets on flight cancellations:
And here’s the update from Fortune: “Prediction market platform Kalshi has called off plans for its latest offering: Contracts that would let users wager on upcoming flight cancellations. The decision comes after social media users expressed fears that bad actors could make mischief at airports in order to collect a payout, and after popular airline-tracking service FlightAware said Kalshi could not use its data to resolve the contracts.”
And more from Adjacent Press:
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Prediction markets news roundup
🚨 The important stuff
ICYMI… White House teleprompter operator made more than $100K betting on Trump’s speeches: Sources: “Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator is believed to have made tens of thousands of dollars by placing bets on that speech and more than a dozen others on the prediction market Kalshi, federal investigators with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.”
Later…Reuters: “The president is aware of the teleprompter operator, and the staffer is now on unpaid leave,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday. Leavitt later added that Perez will no longer be working at the White House.
🤨 One of the questions I still have is why Perez was only put on leave now, given that the regulatory investigation apparently had been underway for months.
Otherwise, you can read other questions I have here:
Four Questions About The White House Teleprompter Operator Who Allegedly Bet On Kalshi
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Sorry to bombard your inbox with yet another newsletter, but I don’t think this can wait till tomorrow.
Kalshi launches biotech prediction markets pilot program (Kalshi blog): Kalshi, the next-generation financial exchange, today announced a partnership with public intelligence company AppliedXL to launch a pilot suite of prediction markets on clinical trial outcomes and FDA regulatory decisions. The markets will create publicly available, accurate probabilities aiming to help solve drug development’s information silo problem.
The odds that a drug will succeed are among the most valuable numbers in the economy, and among the least visible. The average cost to bring a single drug to market is an estimated $2.3 billion, according to McKinsey, and a company’s fortunes can turn on a single trial result. Banks, expert networks, and pharmaceutical companies all produce estimates, but they stay behind closed doors. Even the official public record is incomplete: as of the FDA’s April 2026 figures, roughly 30% of trials required to report their results had posted none.
These markets close that gap. A publicly listed contract on a trial or regulatory outcome produces a continuously updated, public probability that reflects the weight of the evidence rather than the preferred messaging of the trial sponsor. Because the price now moves on the public record rather than on privileged access, people who were never in the room — investors allocating capital, smaller developers weighing where to compete, clinicians and patients tracking a program — can all read the same number.
“Drug development is one of the most important and most information-constrained industries on earth. The data that determines which drugs advance and which don’t is largely locked away from the people who need it most. Surfacing information is what Kalshi is for, and we are committed to doing it right: compliance-first, carefully scoped, and built for the long term.”k — Tarek Mansour, CEO, Kalshi …
These initial markets are a pilot program, deliberately constrained to protect both the integrity of the markets and the integrity of the trials they price.
More coverage from Bloomberg: “Biotechnology is a highly speculative corner of the market that is prone to massive stock swings and much uncertainty. While Kalshi and rival Polymarket have offered some healthcare-related contracts in the past, this expansion fits into Kalshi’s ongoing effort to show that prediction markets can provide socially useful information, rather than just an outlet for sports gambling.”
“But critics say these kinds of bets create an incentive to trade on nonpublic information, potentially influencing ongoing clinical trials or distorting thinly traded markets. Kalshi plans to use employment verification to monitor for insider trading, similar to how it handles other wagers about corporate data.”
Trump-Tied Bets Firm Quietly Pulls Segregation Gambling Ad Amid Backlash (Punch Up): “A Trump-backed gambling giant has quietly scrubbed Black baseball legend Jackie Robinson from its splashy campaign celebrating America’s 250th birthday after it was accused of monetizing his momentous race-based civil rights win.”
Arizona Secretary Of State’s Office Announces Internal Policy Related To Election Event Wagering (press release): “The Arizona Secretary of State officially announced the rollout of a new policy prohibiting all forms of event wagering or prediction market engagement involving elections or election-related events. The policy is designed to promote election integrity, fairness, and public confidence while reinforcing the organization’s commitment to responsible governance.”
“My top priority is to protect the integrity of our elections above all else. Implementing this policy is a proactive measure to protect both the voters in Arizona and our employees at the State Department. I know the professionals that run our elections across all 15 counties here in Arizona share my urgency in providing peace of mind to voters this election season,” said Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. “This policy provides clear standards that support fair competition and accountability.”
🔍 The actual policy specifically prohibits employees from using or disclosing nonpublic information to profit from election-related markets.
Honestly, every state should be doing this. Governments ought to be clear about all of this heading into midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
As prediction markets boom, questions arise over who will be the watchdog (CNBC): “Now, as prediction markets are booming, legal experts increasingly speculate the CFTC’s sibling agency — the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — will have a role to play soon in this novel asset class.”
“The CFTC has come out saying that they have jurisdiction over the event contracts, but there’s also some that seem like they’re more in the SEC’s realm,” said Joe Zales, a partner at King and Spalding.
Update in New York:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALUpdate: Judge Torres has ordered New York State officials to submit a letter in opposition to Kalshi's motion for an immediate injunction pending appeal by 7/22, with a decision likely to be rendered by 7/23, with CA2 emergency motion practice on deck.
Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGALNEW: Kalshi has filed a motion for an immediate injunction pending appeal with SDNY Judge Analisa Torres seeking to preserve the status quo pending the outcome of the CA2 appeal; the New York AG has agreed not to bring an enforcement action against Kalshi through July 30, 2026.12:12 AM · Jul 17, 2026 · 1.61K Views1 Repost · 4 Likes
📣 Industry news
Jump Trading Doubles Team to Ride Record Prediction Market Boom (Bloomberg): “The high-frequency trading firm has doubled its prediction markets team this year to about 20 people and plans to keep hiring, according to Simon Johansen, the firm’s head of prediction markets.”
Underdog Self-Certifies First Contracts For In-House Exchange (InGame): “Underdog has self-certified the first contracts for its in-house exchange, a sign that it may soon be able to launch them to the public. The exchange has at least one market maker ready to trade on these markets. It is not clear if this market maker is part of Underdog itself or an external entity.”
Prediction market startup Pascal raises $9 million to challenge heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket (Fortune, paywall): “While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, a new wave of startups is clamoring to carve out a place in one of the buzziest new sectors in finance. One of those is Pascal, which aspires to offer a more refined version of prediction markets than existing platforms, and on Thursday announced a $9 million Series A funding round.”
More from Union Square Ventures.
DAZN and ADI Predictstreet Announce Exclusive Global Partnership to Launch Next-Generation Regulated Sports Prediction Markets (press release): DAZN, the world’s leading global sports entertainment platform, and ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s first-ever Official Prediction Market Partner, today announced an exclusive global strategic partnership to develop and distribute regulated prediction market experiences for sports fans worldwide, powered by ADI Chain.
The partnership brings together two powerful and highly complementary platforms: ADI Predictstreet’s regulated prediction market technology and DAZN’s unrivalled global reach, premium sports rights and fan-centric digital ecosystem. The parties will work together on an exclusive basis to build a new category of sports engagement, allowing eligible fans in licensed markets to make regulated predictions around live sporting events and other content while watching and engaging through DAZN.
Hires and Higher-Ups: Former Underdog executive joins Kalshi (SBC Americas): “Former Underdog executive Dillon Borgida has found a new role. Borgida announced his appointment on Tuesday as head of private client sales & services at Kalshi. Borgida joined Kalshi after spending nearly three years at Underdog as a vice president of VIP and player experience.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Gaming Bonds Lose Allure as Threat From Prediction Markets Grows (Bloomberg): “Investors increasingly see gaming bonds as a losing bet. The risk premiums they’re demanding to own junk-rated bonds in the industry has surged over the past two-and-a-half years to around 250 basis points — a stark contrast from the tighter spreads across most other sectors, data compiled by Bloomberg show.”
Kalshi’s strategy of taking risks pays off (Ad Age, Hottest Brands of 2026): “Kalshi has helped turn prediction markets from a niche financial product into one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer technology by marketing itself more like an entertainment brand than a trading platform. The company has leaned into culture, celebrity and major news events to make prediction markets feel accessible—and worth talking about. They also come with a fair amount of risk that Kalshi never seems to shy away from.”
Buffett and Kalshi: Two views of America’s gambling boom (Axios): “It remains to be seen whether efforts by both industries to invest in problem gambling initiatives and support legislative efforts will be enough to satisfy lawmakers.”
