I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.
Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.
Make sure to read this, if you missed it:
How Artificial Spotify Streams Broke A Kalshi Market
Guest column: Caleb Davies, known on Twitter and Kalshi as GaetenD, is a long-time prediction markets trader currently ranked fifth in lifetime earnings on culture markets on Kalshi.
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Prediction markets news roundup
🚨 The important stuff
ESMA reminds firms of existing rules and obligations under binary option measures amid growing popularity of prediction markets globally (press release): The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s financial markets regulator and supervisor, has issued a statement reminding firms of their obligation to assess whether newly offered products fall within the scope of existing product intervention measures on binary options.
The statement responds to the growing popularity of prediction markets - or event contracts - and increasing retail participation globally. Event contracts are products whose financial outcome is binary (a fixed payout or no payout at all) and depends on a yes-or-no answer to a question about a future event. Event contracts exist for a wide variety of event questions. Whether they qualify as financial instruments depends on the event question. Event contracts may (also) qualify as bets under national gambling legislation.
Where event contracts are financial instruments, they classify as derivatives and, given the binary outcome, fall within the scope of the existing national product intervention measures on binary options adopted by national competent authorities prohibiting their marketing, distribution or sale to retail clients.
The statement also reminds firms that the distribution of event contracts qualifying as financial instruments in the EU requires an authorisation as investment firm, even where only distributed to non-retail clients.
Statement here.
Vault: Hill staffers expecting more prediction market limits (Punchbowl, paywall): “A slim majority of Capitol Hill staffers believe that Congress will introduce more safeguards on prediction markets to prevent insider trading, according to the latest edition of the Canvass. A total of 53% of respondents said it was likely the current Congress would outlaw insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket among government and military officials. A group of 45% said it was unlikely.”
Kalshi amplified misinformation…: See below…there are no reports, and the data has not been released…the tweet has a community note. I don’t know who started it, but Kalshi gave it the most traction. (FanDuel tweeted and apparently deleted it.) What are we doing here?
Kalshi Sports@KalshiSports🚨 BREAKING: Argentina vs Cape Verde has reportedly become the most-watched FIFA World Cup 2026 match globally so far. 🌍📺
1:28 AM · Jul 4, 2026 · 2.99M Views730 Replies · 7.84K Reposts · 74.5K Likes
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Prediction market betting would be authorized in NC’s new budget. What it means for sports betting (WRAL): “It’s pretty clear that it’s something that seems to be growing both in popularity and in terms of just recognition that it’s out there,” Senate leader Phil Berger told reporters Thursday. “Whether it’s something that eventually is going to take over from the sports betting, I don’t know.”
“But other conservatives fear it’s bad policy, and too permissive to prediction markets companies. The bill doesn’t propose a single rule that prediction market betting companies would have to follow to continue doing business in North Carolina — a sharp contrast to the state’s heavily regulated sports betting laws.”
Could Minnesota Prediction Market Ban Only Apply To Some Contracts? (InGame): “In a district court hearing on Minnesota’s first-of-its-kind legislation banning prediction markets Thursday, it seemed the judge’s decision could depend heavily on one question – what should be done if the state has the power to ban some prediction market contracts but not others?”
Opinion: Prediction markets undermine Utah’s gambling laws (Deseret News, Bill Miller, president of AGA): “Utahns have been crystal clear: gambling has no place in your state. Yet so-called ‘prediction market’ platforms have engineered a backdoor into your communities. By rebranding sports bets as ‘event contracts’ and ‘derivatives,’ these platforms are mass-marketing sports betting as investing while claiming they are not subject to the laws and oversight that reflect Utah’s values.”
Hongkongers should beware of prediction markets (South China Morning Post): “The government should continue with its review of the situation and establish a way forward. Meanwhile, anyone in Hong Kong tempted to place wagers with the platforms should be wary of doing so. They lack the usual protection provided to consumers, and their use might be illegal.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
This is funny/sad:
jay@jay_drainjrthis is what happens when a crypto company uses AI to generate sports prediction markets @coinbase is hallucinating results for a World Cup game that hasn’t even been played yet and sending factually incorrect notifications to its millions of users as “breaking news”
2:59 PM · Jul 5, 2026 · 181K Views116 Replies · 48 Reposts · 905 LikesAmericans traded $571 million on Polymarket politic bets despite U.S. ban (CoinDesk): “Wallets tied to the U.S. traded $571 million in notional value across Polymarket’s political markets in the trailing 12 months, more than any other country and ahead of Hong Kong’s $422 million, a new report by onchain analysis firm Allium found.”
Prediction markets are booming. But is the party about to stop? (The Times): “Campaigners, however, see the rise of prediction markets as the latest form of the hyper-gamification of life — a successor to stock-trading apps such as Robinhood. The consequences, they warn, will be predictably tragic: punters losing it all on bets and ending up homeless, or politicians and sports figures manipulating their own activities to make a quick turn.”
Thank goodness this important market exists:
PredictionMarketTrader@PredMTraderIn a SHOCKING turn of events, Tennessee and New York are now neck and neck for Taylor Swift’s wedding location. Tennessee was trading at just 3% days ago.
PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTraderTaylor Swift's wedding is now up to an 85% chance of being held in New York after reports that permits were requested for the area outside MSG and Chiefs players have booked hotel rooms in Manhattan. NO holders are now hoping either MSG isn't the actual ceremony location or that11:30 PM · Jul 2, 2026 · 85.3K Views11 Replies · 105 LikesMore from the Hollywood Reporter.
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town (Wired): “That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos were racing to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the fires—how they would grow, how long they would last, and how much they would destroy.”
On Substack:
