What do we make of all the noise about prediction markets in the Senate? Plus a closer look at Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts and betting on Survivor. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame joins to talk about all the latest industry news.
📊 The Ticker
For Sunday, May 24, at Kalshi:
Volume: $672.1 million
Sports + parlays: 88.2% of volume
Crypto markets: 10.2% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US volume on Saturday: $79.5 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency (New York Times): “The suspensions were just one of many ways in which the C.F.T.C., the primary regulator of a specialized sector of the financial markets, has been mowed down by the powerful business interests it is supposed to oversee, a New York Times investigation found. In the past 16 months of the Trump administration, the commission has shrunk its work force, purged career officials, sharply curtailed crypto enforcement and helped out prediction markets at virtually every turn, The Times found.”
🔎 This is a must-read, it probably goes without saying. This story brings together a lot of what has been implied about the regulator of prediction markets, but puts some reporting oomph behind it. More than anything, it calls into question exactly how “regulated” prediction markets actually are. Which is not a great narrative for them!
Comer Launches Investigation Into Insider Trading on Prediction Market Platforms (press release): House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) today opened an investigation into how users of prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi potentially are using nonpublic information to engage in insider trading. In letters to Polymarket Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan and Kalshi Chief Executive Officer Tarek Mansour, Chairman Comer requests documents and information from Polymarket and Kalshi to assess how the platforms verify the identities of domestic and foreign account holders, enforce geographic restrictions, and monitor suspicious trading activity to guard against insider trading.
“The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is examining the use of online prediction market platforms by some users to conduct insider trading. Specifically, we are examining the adequacy of company safeguards to prevent access to offshore sites to circumvent compliance with applicable U.S. federal regulations governing prediction market platforms. Internal records held by prediction market platforms are the only means by which bad actors can be identified and to determine whether platforms are meeting their legal obligations. The Committee requests documents and information to better understand how [Polymarket and Kalshi] implements identity verification for domestic and international account holders, enforces geographic restrictions, and detects anomalous trading activity to prevent insider trading across its global platform,” wrote Chairman James Comer.
The letters are on the link here.
Here’s Comer on CNBC:
Polymarket Banned in Indonesia After Bets on Prabowo’s Ouster (Bloomberg): “Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket, labeling the prediction-market a form of online gambling soon after a bet on the possible early end of President Prabowo Subianto’s tenure circulated widely on social media. The government will also track social media accounts promoting the platform, the Communications and Digital Ministry said in a statement Friday. The ministry said platforms facilitating wagers on specific event outcomes remain classified as gambling, even when packaged as ‘prediction markets.’
Kalshi Debuts ‘Fair Markets’ Lobby Group as Congress Opens Insider Trading Probe (Decrypt): “Kalshi unveiled an advocacy group on Friday to help shape policymakers’ perception of prediction markets, billing the move as a way to level the playing field against sportsbooks and casinos.”
“Americans for Fair Markets (AFM) will actively combat “interests that are focused on protecting their monopolies and seeding lies,” Kalshi said in a blog post, highlighting the organization’s focus on legislation that supports innovation, market integrity, and consumer protection.”
“Kalshi said the group has tapped Taylor Budowich, a former senior White House staffer who resigned in September, to serve as a strategic advisor.”
First (and only, so far) tweet from Budowich about the group after he took the gig:
Taylor Budowich@BudowichPolitico doing me dirty.
Declan Harty @declanhartyNews: A new advocacy group backed by the prediction market giant Kalshi has tapped former White House official Taylor Budowich to lead its fight against the traditional gambling industry. https://t.co/Saoohpwub64:38 PM · May 22, 2026 · 50.1K Views8 Replies · 9 Reposts · 156 Likes
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Polymarket Is Said to Seek Japan Prediction Market Approval (Bloomberg): “Polymarket has appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for the authorization of prediction markets in the country, according to people familiar with the matter. The global prediction market platform is aiming for government approval in Japan by 2030, the people said, asking not to be named as the plans aren’t public. Polymarket sees Japan as a large untapped business opportunity, they said.”
New York Moves Prediction Market Banning Bill Forward (Sports Betting Dime): “The New York Senate is moving a bill forward to ban certain prediction markets from the Empire State and raise the minimum age of participation. Sen. Joseph P. Addabbo Jr.’s bill, S9414, will effectively ban certain prediction market contracts, including those related to sports, and raises the minimum age to purchase event contracts from 18 to 21.”
Industry news
Totalis - Parlay on Anything (Y Combinator): Right now, prediction markets mostly let you trade one event at a time. Totalis lets you trade the whole thesis.
A parlay is simple: pick 2–5 things you think will happen together, combine them into one trade, and get a larger payout if all legs hit.
Instead of putting $100 into each individual market, you can put $100 into the combined thesis. That makes it more capital efficient if your view is really about the events happening together.
For example: “Google wins AI → SPY rips” Thesis:
if Google has the top AI model
GOOGL closes above target
SPY closes above target
🔎 The questions I have about this: 1) Is there a big enough group of people who actually want to bet parlays on world events? 2) Is there enough liquidity that wants to take the other side of highly correlated (or uncorrelated) parlays? 3) And not calling them combos or CAOCs? Crazy!
Easyjet founder bets on World Cup in prediction markets pivot (CityAM): “The billionaire behind Easyjet is taking a punt on sports betting as he launches prediction markets ahead of the World Cup. Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, who founded the budget airline in 1995, launched his Easybet platform in 2024 and is now expanding into prediction markets, City AM can reveal.”
📖 Everything else you should know/read
ICYMI on Friday:
‘Survivor’ Boss Jeff Probst Says Kalshi and Polymarket Are ‘Incentivizing People to Lie, Cheat and Steal’; Kalshi Is Now Considering Measures to Prevent Spoilers (Variety): “Jeff Probst is slamming prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing users to make trades about who won ‘Survivor’ Season 50, saying that the companies are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead.”
“They have figured out a way to capitalize on [the show],” he tells Variety. “It doesn’t sit well with me as a human. I get it — they built a great business. They don’t care.”
I wrote something about Survivor (and other predetermined markets) over the weekend:
Stop Letting People Bet On Survivor And Other Things That Already Happened
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When you’ve lost Jeff Probst, it’s probably time to do some soul-searching.
Americans pledge trust in prediction markets and sportsbooks (Axios): Polymarket — the offshore prediction market that is slowly expanding into the U.S. — notched a higher reputation ranking in the 2026 Axios Harris Poll 100 at No. 45 than companies like Verizon, Ford, Target, Uber, Disney and Bank of America.
Investment platform Robinhood — which offers prediction market services through Kalshi — ranked at No. 42.
DraftKings, one of the two leading sportsbooks by market share, ranked No. 66, slightly behind Robinhood and Polymarket but ahead of companies like AT&T, McDonald’s and Wells Fargo.
When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula (CNBC): “High volume and short-term markets that ask simple questions with clear resolution rules — that’s the formula Evercore ISI strategists say make prediction markets helpful for forecasting. Led by Julian Emanuel, they found contracts with higher volume produce more reliable probabilities than shallow markets. Similarly, contracts closer to their termination date showed stronger probability versus a long-term contract.”
Hyperliquid is emerging as a challenger to traditional exchanges and prediction markets, says FalconX (CoinDesk): “Senior crypto market strategist David Lawant outlined how Hyperliquid’s recent moves into pre-IPO markets, prediction contracts and tokenized real-world assets are broadening the platform’s appeal beyond crypto-native traders.’
“Hyperliquid is seeing traction as demand for its HIP-3 markets expands to include pre-IPO markets,” the report said."
Kalshi, Polymarket Put Real-Time Odds Up Against Traditional Polling (Dallas Express): “The latest public polling in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate shows movement toward Paxton, though not as decisively as the prediction markets. The New York Times’ polling tracker, updated May 24, listed recent Republican runoff surveys ranging from a 1-point Cornyn lead to a 21-point Paxton lead. The latest listed poll, from SoCal Strategies, found Paxton leading Cornyn 57% to 35%.”
Here’s Kalshi:
And Polymarket:
