There has been a lot of data journalism digging into what exactly is happening at Kalshi in terms of its volume. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame talks about his recent work and helps me take a look at what else we have learned of late about Kalshi, including how much users are losing on parlays.
📊 The Ticker
For Saturday, May 16, at Kalshi:
Volume: $585.3 million
Sports + parlays: 86.6% of volume
Crypto markets: 10.8% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US volume on Saturday: $78.9 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Suspicious Betting in Washington Is on the Rise—and Authorities Are Playing Catch-Up (WSJ): “Authorities in recent months have issued a number of information requests to Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, with many of them targeting wagers tied to political events or military operations in Iran and Venezuela, according to people familiar with the matter.”
NFL wants certain trading contracts banned from prediction markets like ‘first play of game,’ injuries (CNBC): “The National Football League outlined to the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission its views on how sports-related prediction markets should be regulated as the industry continues to experience massive growth, according to a letter reviewed by CNBC. Recommendations include banning certain event contracts and raising the age requirement for participation.”
Prediction Markets Aren’t Going the Way Optimists Hoped (Bloomberg): “Hedging is a public good that justifies extremely speculative behavior. For example, many traders in oil futures have no direct stake in oil. They are placing bets much as Kalshi bettors bet on the World Series. But their presence allows exporters and oil producers to manage risks and lock in prices. The hope is for big, liquid prediction markets to allow a company that stands to be harmed if Candidate X wins an election to buy insurance. But this remains largely theoretical, and blatantly doesn’t apply to many, if not most, Kalshi and Polymarket contracts.”
House Mulls Betting Crackdown After Senate Prediction Market Ban (Bloomberg Law): “The Senate’s uncharacteristically swift self-imposed ban on prediction market participation put unexpected pressure on the House to follow suit—but leaders across the Capitol are warning it might not be as easy.”
“They’ve got about one-fifth of the number of people that I do to deal with,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said of the Senate’s unanimous adoption of a rule change barring lawmakers and staff from participating in prediction markets. Johnson told Bloomberg Government he’d favor such a ban. “But before we do anything like that, I’ve got to get consensus on it,” he said.
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
AGA + IGA ask Congress to stop prediction markets: The American Gaming Association and the Indian Gaming Association have sent a letter to Congress asking lawmakers to include language to ban sports and casino event contracts as they consider cryptocurrency market structure legislation.
From the letter: “On behalf of the American Gaming Association (AGA) and the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), we write to follow up on our January 12, 2026 letter regarding the rapid expansion of sports event contracts offered through Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered prediction markets. Since then, the need for congressional action has become even more evident and more urgent. As Congress considers cryptocurrency market structure legislation, we strongly urge inclusion of explicit language to make it crystal clear that sports betting and casino-style gambling cannot be conducted nationwide through federally registered platforms under the guise of ‘event contracts.’”
American Gaming Association@AmericanGamingAs Congress considers the Clarity Act, the AGA and Indian Gaming Association are urging lawmakers to include explicit language clarifying that prediction market platforms cannot offer nationwide sports betting and casino-style gambling. Read the letter we sent to Congress ⤵️
6:01 PM · May 15, 2026 · 520 Views1 Reply · 1 Repost · 8 Likes
Pappas Follows Successful Call for House to Investigate Prediction Markets with Call for DOJ to Prosecute Suspected Insider Trading (press release): "Congressman Chris Pappas (NH-01) joined Congressmen Ted W. Lieu (CA-36) and Sean Casten (IL-06) and 53 House Democrats to urge the Department of Justice (DOJ) to pursue suspected insider trading on prediction market platforms more aggressively.
Online prediction markets allow individuals to gamble on the outcomes of a wide variety of real-life events, including sports games, election outcomes, daily stock and commodity price changes, whether certain legislation being considered by Congress will be signed into law, and even geopolitical events such as the likelihood of the United States taking military action against another country or the outcome of diplomatic negotiations.
The lawmakers cautioned that: “Trading on confidential, non-public information is illegal in traditional financial markets when it involves fraud, deception, or breach of duty. Failure to enforce these laws in the context of prediction markets risks creating a regulatory gap that rewards bad actors, incentivizes misconduct, and undermines confidence in the integrity of U.S. markets.”
Prediction Markets Can’t Go on Without Legal Enforcement in Place (Bloomberg Law): “Prediction markets have increased the risks of government officials engaging insider trading and corruption, leaving states and the federal government scrambling to stop it. Yet there are few mechanisms to prevent it right now. States and federal government must act quickly to develop rigorous and effective frameworks beyond merely banning officials from insider trading.”
New prediction market applications with the CFTC:
Earlier in May, Bullish applied for designated contract market status.
Press release: Bullish (NYSE: BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform providing market infrastructure and information services, through its subsidiaries, today announced that it has filed applications with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for designation as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and for registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
The applications have been submitted to CFTC staff and are now part of the agency’s standard review process.
“We are pleased to have submitted our DCM and DCO applications and look forward to engaging with the CFTC staff throughout the review,” said Chris Tyrer, President of Bullish Exchange.
And this one:
Six Markets@sixmarketsappSix Markets has submitted its DCM application to the CFTC. The process has begun. More to come.3:31 PM · May 15, 2026 · 6.34K Views1 Repost · 4 Likes
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Suspected insider accounts net $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets with 98% win rate, firm finds (CBS News): “Nine connected Polymarket accounts have raked in more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions in what digital detectives from the data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified as a potentially egregious case of insider trading.”
60 Minutes covered prediction markets:
The Mysterious Crypto Judges Who Settle Polymarket Disputes (WSJ): “With millions of dollars at stake, it wasn’t Polymarket that decided who was right. Instead, Wilhelm learned that the fate of his bet was up to a loosely organized body of cryptocurrency holders empowered to arbitrate such disputes.”
The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on Polymarket (Wired): “Like so many other AI-pilled workplaces, the CFTC is also leaning into automation to handle the growing workload, including tools that analyze trading patterns and flag potential manipulation. ‘You’ve got so much data,’ Selig says. ‘When we feed it into AI, we get really great information. It can help us understand things, like where we might want to investigate, or when we might need to send a subpoena to a trader.’”
Why has only 1 insider trading case been filed in prediction markets? Feds just getting started (NY Post): “Stay tuned.”
“That’s what US regulators are telling On The Money when asked about the notable lack of enforcement cases filed over suspicious trades in the futures and prediction markets surrounding big news events in the Iran war and elsewhere.”
Goldman Sachs using AI to analyze prediction markets (Investment News): “You’re asking an analyst to choose his favorite data source. I look at all of them. I have AI combine Kalshi, Polymarket, anything else I can find, and aggregate them across my screen,” said Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs’ chief US equity strategist.”
Handle in US sports betting is up slightly in April so far (The Closing Line, paywall): And Kalshi volume has leveled off a bit. Is it the calendar? Something else? Just noise?
What are prediction markets and why is the Trump administration on board? (CNN): “I talked to CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen, who covers prediction markets, about how they work and what could happen to them in the future.”
Defending Ohioans From Medicaid Fraud, Prediction Markets, And Public Corruption With AG Dave Yost (Center for Christian Virtue, podcast): “Tune in to hear about the ‘Wild West’ of unregulated gambling, the fight for school choice, and why Ohio’s AG is taking his legal expertise to the largest Christian law firm in the world.”
Cathie Wood Bets On Kalshi, But Her Ark Innovation ETF Hasn’t Been Great At Timing Winners (Benzinga): “Cathie Wood‘s ARK Invest joined Kalshi’s $1 billion Series F last week at a $22 billion valuation, slotting the prediction market behind only SpaceX and OpenAI in the ARK Venture Fund. … Morningstar analyst Amy Arnott labeled the ARK fund family the worst wealth destroyer of any U.S. fund group in 2024, estimating roughly $14.3 billion in shareholder value erased from 2014 to 2024.”
