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More than 1,500 comments came into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on its prediction markets rulemaking. What did we learn from that? Check out the podcast for analysis of the biggest news in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.
📊 The Ticker
For Saturday, May 2 at Kalshi:
Volume: $545.8 million
Sports + parlays: 89.5% of volume
Crypto markets: 8.4% of volume
Trend line for daily volume:
Polymarket US volume on Saturday: $50 million
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Schumer Wants to Ban Lawmakers, Officials on Prediction Markets (Bloomberg via Yahoo): “Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called on the House of Representatives and the White House to follow the Senate’s lead by imposing a ban on trading in fast-growing prediction markets.”
“Members and staff representing the public should never be able to gamble on wars, on economic crises or on elections,” Schumer said in a statement on Sunday. “The very possibility that a member’s vote could be influenced by a bet is reason enough to slam this door shut.”
Video:
Kalshi hit $4 billion in weekly volume for the first time: More from me at The Closing Line (paywalled) below. $1 billion of that volume was on parlays.
Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined lifetime volumes hit $150 billion in April (The Block): “The seven-month streak where leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined trading volume set a fresh record monthly high ended in April, according to The Block’s data.”
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets (WSJ): “Instead, casual traders are bleeding cash while a small number of sophisticated pros—including trading firms with access to vast streams of data—eat their lunch, according to a Journal analysis of platform data and interviews with traders. On Polymarket, the Journal found, 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. That means less than 2,000 accounts netted a total of nearly half a billion dollars. The Journal analyzed 1.6 million Polymarket accounts that have traded since November 2022. There are at least 2.3 million total accounts on the site.”
Prediction Market Debate Splits Sports Leagues, Players (Legal Sports Report): “Major sports leagues are not aligned on prediction markets, and new filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission lay out just how wide that divide has become. The MLB, NBA, and NCAA each submitted comments ahead of Thursday’s deadline for the agency’s forthcoming rules, outlining how sports event contracts should be regulated. A lobbying firm representing players associations also weighed in, while the NFL and NHL declined to comment.”
📣 Industry news
Clear Street & Kalshi Form Groundbreaking Partnership to Bring Institutional Access to World’s Largest Prediction Market Exchange (press release): Clear Street, a cloud-native financial infrastructure technology firm on a mission to give every sophisticated investor access to every asset in every market, today announced a strategic partnership with Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market. Clear Street has become the first institutional Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) to join Kalshi’s exchange and clearing house, opening regulated, institutional access to one of the fastest-growing asset classes in modern markets. Also part of the partnership, Clear Street launches swap capabilities for ETF issuers structuring listed investment products around prediction markets.
As the first institutional FCM member of Kalshi’s exchange and clearing house, Clear Street’s collaboration launches with institutional trading access to Kalshi’s 24/7 regulated event contracts and expands to include regulated clearing and settlement, large-scale risk transfer through block trading, swap solutions for ETFs and infrastructure designed to scale the liquidity of Kalshi’s markets. By combining Clear Street’s institutional client base with Kalshi’s regulated venue, the two companies aim to establish prediction markets as a serious component of modern institutional portfolios.
Andy Volz, Chief Commercial Officer of Clear Street, said, “This partnership is a natural extension of our mission to give every sophisticated investor access to every asset, in every market. Prediction markets are emerging as a regulated, fast-growing asset class, and our institutional clients want access to clearing, risk management and swap product capabilities for this growing space. Our cloud-native, end-to-end capital markets platform was purpose-built to deliver this kind of access with speed, transparency and scale.” …
Max Crowley, Vice President of Business Development at Kalshi, said, “Institutional demand for prediction markets is at a tipping point, and our clients have been clear about what they need to scale into the asset class: regulated clearing, deep institutional liquidity and the operational rigor of a modern infrastructure provider. Clear Street delivers all of that, and as the first institutional FCM to join Kalshi, they are setting the standard for how event contracts will be accessed, cleared and risk-managed at institutional scale. This partnership is a major step forward for our market and for the broader category.”
New at Polymarket:
Polymarket@PolymarketHyperliquid up or down? 5 minute up/down HYPE polymarkets are now live.4:37 PM · May 1, 2026 · 2.41M Views109 Replies · 71 Reposts · 818 Likes
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
Attorney General Davenport Leads AGs In Urging CFTC to Recognize State Authority Over Sports-Related Prediction Markets (press release, NJ attorney general’s office): Attorney General Jennifer Davenport today co-led a bipartisan coalition of 41 attorneys general in urging federal regulators to reaffirm that jurisdiction over sports gambling belongs to states.
“Prediction markets have no right to offer sports gambling in New Jersey in violation of the bedrock rules that other wagering operations follow,” Attorney General Davenport said. “States have had longstanding authority to oversee all gaming within their borders, which is important to protect residents from gambling addiction and deter insider trading. We call on the CFTC to stop their federal power grab and recognize this authority belongs with the States.”
The 41 attorneys general filed a formal comment with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, arguing that prediction markets – platforms where users trade contracts on the outcome of future events – have effectively become unregulated sportsbooks.
“Any distinction between sportsbook bets and prediction-market bets is illusory,” the letter says. “On so-called ‘prediction markets,’ users can make all the same wagers they can make at a traditional sportsbook.” …
The attorneys general caution that sports gambling without careful regulation poses serious risks to public health and financial security, with millions of Americans qualifying as problematic or pathological gamblers. The coalition asserts that states – not the CFTC – are best equipped to protect their residents from the associated harms.
The coalition’s letter responds to a CFTC request for public comment on proposed rules for prediction markets. The states urge the commission to confirm through rulemaking that it lacks jurisdiction over sports-related contracts, ensuring that the power to regulate or prohibit sports gambling remains with states.
“The CFTC should recognize the limits of its power and affirm that states have the expertise, experience and tools to regulate sports betting as they have for more than a century,” the letter says.
Joining Attorney General Davenport in the coalition are the attorneys general of Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Dan Patrick eyes closing ‘gambling loophole’ for prediction markets. The feds stand in Texas’ way. (KHOU): “In Texas, Patrick opened the door to potential regulation in March when he directed the State Affairs Committee to study how federal law has been exploited to ‘circumvent Texas gambling prohibitions.’ As presiding officer of the Texas Senate, he has long opposed efforts to loosen state gambling restrictions.”
“Patrick also told senators to prepare recommendations for the 2027 session of the Legislature to ensure prediction markets do not endanger the integrity of elections and sports in Texas. The committee has no meetings currently scheduled.”
Minnesota lawmakers advance measure to put guardrails for prediction markets (MPR News): “Lawmakers are closer to banning prediction markets in Minnesota after both chambers of the Legislature took steps to advance legislation setting guardrails. The Minnesota Senate advanced legislation Thursday on a 56-10 vote making it a felony to host or advertise a prediction market in the state. Hours later, the House of Representatives amended a broader public safety bill to include the provision.”
“More deliberations remain ahead, and Republican leadership in both chambers opposed the legislation so it’s still possible the ban could stumble ahead of adjournment.”
Kalshi’s Sports Contract Cases Turn on Three Textual Hurdles: A Field Guide to Legal Fault Lines (DeFi Rate): “A May 4 deadline looms for Kalshi to geofence Nevada after Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury granted a preliminary injunction to the Nevada Gaming Control Board on April 28. The state-court ruling, which followed Woodbury’s earlier characterization of sports event contracts as “indistinguishable” from placing a sports bet, adds to a litigation map now spanning five federal circuits, with a circuit split increasingly likely. Kalshi’s preemption cases have largely been framed as a “gaming versus swaps” debate, but the questions actually before the courts are more layered. Three textual questions sit between the parties and a ruling, and a “no” on any one defeats the preemption theory…”
Ban Judges, Justices and Staff from Prediction Markets (Fix The Court): Fix the Court today is calling on the federal judiciary to ban its judges, justices and staffs from participating in prediction markets. Our request comes a day after the Senate banned its members and their staffs from prediction markets. Currently, on both Kalshi and Polymarket users can place bets on which justice will retire next, who their replacement will be and how and handful of cases currently before the Supreme Court will turn out.
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Silicon Valley’s Casino Problem (Forbes): “Silicon Valley did not invent this problem. Wall Street has lived with it for decades. High-frequency trading, structured derivatives and fee-heavy investment products have long raised questions about how much these activities improve capital allocation, and how much merely allows sophisticated intermediaries to skim from the churn. The new development is Silicon Valley has put the casino in everyone’s pocket.”
The Future of Decision Intelligence (Milken Institute Global Conference 2026, Monday, 2:30 Pacific): “From real-time economic data and polling to futures markets and prediction platforms, new forms of decision intelligence are changing how we interpret uncertainty, assess risk, and act. Across media, sports, financial markets, and consumer platforms, these tools are shaping how judgment is formed and how consumers and institutions respond to new information. This conversation brings together leaders from prediction platforms, financial markets, sportsbooks, and media to examine whether new sources of decision intelligence can outperform conventional signals, reveal what others miss, and help us navigate uncertainty with greater speed and confidence. In doing so, it asks a broader question: how is innovation changing not just what we know, but how do we know it?”
SPEAKERS
Stephanie Guild, Chief Investment Officer, Robinhood Markets
Paul Liberman, Co-founder and President, Operations, DraftKings Inc.
Brian Quintenz, Board Member, Kalshi
CFTC Chair Races to Stop States From Killing Prediction Markets (The Information, paywall)
After DOJ Charged First Prediction Market Insider Trading Case, Will The Losers Be Repaid? (InGame): “Eight days have passed since April 23, when the Department of Justice (DOJ) charged U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with making a number of insider trades on Polymarket’s global site on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The trades, the DOJ claims, resulted in more than $400,000 in profit for Van Dyke. But what about that $400,000? What if you were unlucky enough to stake money on Maduro remaining in power through the end of January, and lost money because of the alleged insider trades?”
Six months out, control of the Senate is a dead heat, traders on Kalshi say (CNBC): “Control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s midterms remains a tossup just over six months from election day, according to traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi. Traders give both Republicans and Democrats a 50% chance of winning control of the upper chamber.”
Warren Buffett Warns Investors About ‘Risky’ Crypto And Prediction Markets (CryptoProwl): “We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now,” said Buffett in a media interview. He pointed to trading in Bitcoin, meme stocks, and on prediction markets. “The market always feels like a church with a casino attached,” he said.
‘Couldn’t agree more’: Kalshi board member addresses demands to regulate prediction markets (MS Now, video): “Congress members have proposed a slew of prediction market regulations amid concerns over insider trading. Most recently, the Senate has unanimously voted to ban its members and staff from participating in prediction markets. Kalshi, however, has already taken steps to ban lawmakers from its platform and argues it is taking necessary steps to monitor insider trading. Kalshi board member Brian Quintenz joins ‘The Weekend’ to discuss.”
