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It’s good that political candidates and a US soldier were caught betting on prediction markets when they shouldn’t have. But a world where these things are happening in the first place doesn’t feel sustainable.
Check out the podcast for analysis of the biggest news in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.
Prediction markets roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Following up on the US soldier who allegedly bet on the capture of Nicolás Maduro:
First up:
Bobby Allyn@BobbyAllynU.S. special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke accused of using classified military secrets to cash in on Polymarket has an initial court appearance in New York set for Tuesday at 1PM, per court records.
9:10 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 1.45K Views1 Reply · 3 Reposts · 8 Likes‘Shot across the bow’: How Washington plans to take on prediction markets (Politico): Lawmakers are already jumping on the news. In a statement, Sen. Todd Young, an Indiana Republican who has introduced bipartisan legislation to bar everyone from the president to congressional staffers from trading on the markets, told POLITICO that he was “glad to see more people taking these insider trading concerns seriously.”
“This selfish act could have put other brave servicemembers in harm’s way,” Young said. “We need to implement protections to prevent public servants from being able to profit off of insider information.” …
A person familiar with Polymarket’s operations, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, said the use of VPNs on its platform “is an area of continued focus” for the company. Polymarket, the person added, is currently working to fully roll out its CFTC-regulated exchange and that “the last thing in the world the company wants is to do something that’s going to prevent it from being able to operate fully in the U.S.”
Soldier’s arrest in Maduro raid Polymarket bet spotlights military’s risks in prediction markets (The Hill): Popular betting markets maintain they have mechanisms to prevent insider trading, but national security experts say this may not be enough to prevent adversaries from taking advantage of the public indicators in real time.
“The issue isn’t the soldier ‘betting on himself,’ it’s that adversaries can read the order book. Prediction markets on military ops are a real-time intelligence feed for our enemies,” said Alex Goldenberg, a fellow at the Rutgers University Miller Center on Policing and Community Resilience.
Politicians are obviously chattering about the news and prediction markets on Twitter:
Richard Blumenthal@SenBlumenthalPrediction Markets provide an intelligence goldmine to our enemies—spikes in trades on national security action alerting them & imperiling our people. 1/ apnews.com/article/solide…12:51 AM · Apr 25, 2026 · 4.85K Views17 Replies · 35 Reposts · 98 Likes
Bernie Moreno@berniemorenoAny Senator who came to DC to cash in, game prediction markets, or treat public office like a side hustle is betraying the oath they swore to their country. I’m introducing legislation to BAN this insider trading in the Senate and will call for it to be passed UNANIMOUSLY.
5:53 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 17K Views122 Replies · 220 Reposts · 816 LikesWut?
Remarks@remarksJUST IN: 🇺🇸 Rep. Anna Paulina Luna calls for President Trump to pardon US soldier arrested for making over $400,000 betting on Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro. "Unless the DOJ plans on going after all the crooks in Congress currently insider trading, this is simply skewed justice."
12:14 AM · Apr 24, 2026 · 528K Views569 Replies · 1.75K Reposts · 17.5K LikesI was on CNN talking about the case:
Jeff Storobinsky@JeffStorobinsky.@Elex_Michaelson Anchor of @CNNTheStoryIs w/ Publisher, the Event Horizon newsletter @DustinGouker U.S. Soldier arrested for alleged betting on prediction markets related to the Maduro raid **EXCELLENT** 4.24.264:21 AM · Apr 24, 2026 · 5.82K Views4 Reposts · 10 LikesAnd on LiveNOW Fox:
From Gambling is Not Investing and its Executive Director Mick Mulvaney, former Chief of Staff to President Trump:
The statement from Mulvaney comes after Pres. Trump said last night that “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” Pres. Trump, when asked about insider trading on prediction markets, added that he “was never much in favor of” prediction markets. You can view the President’s full remarks HERE.
“Pres. Trump is right that prediction markets have transformed the whole world into a casino. I applaud the President for speaking up on this issue. Prediction markets have put a casino into the pocket of everyone with a phone, including underage youth and residents of states that have decided to outlaw online gambling, including on sports. It is unfortunate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has nonetheless decided to allow prediction markets to run rampant with few safeguards in place to protect underage Americans and enforce state betting laws.”
Insider Trading Cases Threaten Reckoning for Prediction Markets (Bloomberg): “Trump’s willingness to voice skepticism of the industry is the most visible sign of a fresh reckoning with the legal problems presented by prediction markets, which have exploded in popularity over the last year by making it possible to bet on almost anything, from movie awards ceremonies to geopolitical events. Democrats in Congress — and state lawmakers — have recently proposed several pieces of legislation aimed at cracking down on the industry.”
Brazil Blocks Polymarket, Kalshi Over ‘Illegal Betting’ (Bloomberg): “Brazil’s government blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi, part of a crackdown on prediction market platforms it said were out of compliance with federal gambling laws. A total of 27 sites were blocked for offering ‘illegal betting,’ Finance Minister Dario Durigan said at a Friday news conference in Brasilia, after the government published a resolution banning prediction markets tied to elections, sports and other events. …”
“We have advocated for stricter enforcement and very rigorous regulation, which will continue to advance, so that we can curb the negative externalities and social harm that unregulated gambling causes to the Brazilian population,” Durigan said.
Update on Ohio vs. Kalshi:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALBREAKING: The Sixth Circuit has denied Kalshi’s motion for an immediate injunction pending appeal. Ohio Attorney General @DaveYostOH is now free to pursue civil and/or criminal enforcement action against Kalshi in state court. CA6 orders appeal expedited.
9:55 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 2.51K Views3 Replies · 2 Reposts · 22 LikesDaniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALThe Sixth Circuit's order denying Kalshi's motion for an immediate injunction pending appeal is a 16-page opinion which casts doubt on Kalshi's prospects before the merits panel. A few of the more pertinent observations by the CA6 in the thread below:
10:41 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 2.82K Views1 Reply · 1 Repost · 12 Likes
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
CFTC Sues New York Over Prediction Markets Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York to halt the State of New York’s efforts to apply state gambling laws against CFTC-registered contract markets.
New York has sought to enforce state laws against CFTC-registered entities through cease-and-desist letters and civil enforcement suits. In its complaint against New York, the CFTC seeks a declaratory judgment that federal law grants it exclusive authority to regulate event contracts and requests a permanent injunction preventing the state from enforcing preempted state laws against its registrants.
“CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets. New York is the latest state to ignore federal law and decades of precedent by seeking to enforce state gambling laws against CFTC-registered exchanges,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “As I’ve said before, the CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency’s longstanding authority over these markets.”
The CFTC’s action builds upon ongoing efforts to affirm its exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-registered designated contract markets that offer trading in event contracts. It follows similar CFTC lawsuits in Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois.
And again from the CFTC, on Massachusetts: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court confirming the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over the U.S. commodity derivatives markets, including event contract markets commonly referred to as prediction markets. The brief was filed in Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEx LLC, No. SJC-13906.
The filing in Massachusetts comes as a part of the CFTC’s broader effort to protect its jurisdiction over prediction markets from an ongoing campaign of state encroachment.
“Some states continue to pursue ever-escalating, illegal enforcement actions against CFTC-regulated exchanges, despite rulings from multiple courts halting those efforts,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Congress has entrusted the CFTC with the sole authority to regulate commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets. To any state that seeks to nullify federal law and seize authority over these markets, I say again: we will see you in court.”
The amicus brief outlines the history and structure of the Commodity Exchange Act and describes how the comprehensive scheme designed by Congress preempts state laws as applied to CFTC-regulated markets.
The CFTC has previously filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, and New York, securing a temporary restraining order against state regulation of CFTC-regulated prediction markets in Arizona. The CFTC has also filed an amicus brief and argued that state laws are preempted before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.
👉 The three-way lawsuit game continues, as the CFTC sues states, prediction markets sue states, and states sue prediction markets! It’s full-employment season for lawyers. Just wait until someone tries to sue the CFTC!
State attorneys general continue to work together on amicus briefs:
Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost@OhioAGAG Yost and @NevadaAG are continuing the fight against prediction markets’ attempts to bypass state gambling laws, this time co-leading a coalition of 37 states and D.C. in an amicus brief filed today. Details: bit.ly/4u8FKOi8:13 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 3.05K Views8 Replies · 3 Reposts · 12 LikesUpdate from Tennessee:
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGALTennessee asks Sixth Circuit to hear the two prediction market appeals (OH & TN) before the same merits panel on the same day to decrease risk of inconsistent results, especially since they involve the same federal preemption question on which the two lower courts disagreed.
7:52 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 777 Views1 Repost · 5 Likes
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Traders Do Something About the Weather (Bloomberg): “Polymarket argues that it is a “truth machine,” that the function of prediction markets is to help people to understand and interpret the world by giving quantifiable probabilities of future events. When you are dreaming up a prediction market from scratch, you will tend to focus on the predictive function: People’s aggregate guesses about the future, with money on the line, might better predict the future than other methods. But now prediction markets exist and are a big business, so they are not only in the business of predicting reality: They’re also in the business of changing it. If you can make money by predicting the future temperature of some sensor, the obvious trivial way to do that is to warm up the sensor. (I mean: Probably illegal! “Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport”! But still.)”
The CFTC chairman on a podcast:
Mike Selig@ChairmanSeligGreat to join @StuDoesAmerica on @PredictableShow where we discussed all things prediction markets, the @CFTC's role in regulating event contracts, and even the Philadelphia @Eagles' upcoming football season! Watch now ⬇️ youtube.com/watch?v=roFLNa…
5:23 PM · Apr 24, 2026 · 4.17K Views5 Replies · 2 Reposts · 26 LikesThe latest Substack from Polymarket:
