This newsletter and podcast was sent to 2,723 subscribers who want to keep up on the world of prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has shoved all its chips into the middle of the table on prediction markets. What does it mean moving forward? That and much more on this week’s podcast with Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto.
Show notes:
Prediction markets roundup
Ron DeSantis raises questions about Kalshi crowding Seminole Tribe gambling rights (Florida Politics): “Where do prediction markets stop and where does gambling begin? That’s a question Gov. Ron DeSantis suggests is relevant for state-level policymakers, as he named one particular market that he believes could conflict with the Seminole Gaming Compact, which gives the Tribe exclusive sports betting rights in the state.”
“This is something (that) really within the last year has really become a big deal,” DeSantis said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“In Florida, we kind of have a unique relationship with the Seminole Tribe of Florida. There was things done long before I was Governor to give them exclusive rights over gaming. They also have the exclusive rights over sports betting. And so the question is: Is something like Kalshi, is that clashing with the laws of the state of Florida? Or is it separate? It’s more of a prediction (market). So we’re kind of trying to get our mind around that.”
Opinion: Utah’s attorney general takes a stand against gambling and prediction markets (Deseret News): “It was illegal in Utah to bet — in any manner — on whether the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl. But some apps claimed it was perfectly legal to ‘trade’ on a financial contract tied to a future outcome in which the Seahawks would win the Super Bowl. This scenario is not hypothetical. On the morning of the Super Bowl, my college-aged son, here in Utah, received a targeted ad that read, ‘You can legally make money from football in all 50 states on Kalshi.’ And then, with what felt like a carefully crafted wink, it added that in Utah, “you can legally trade on football outcomes.’ …
I was recently asked whether I plan to do anything about the rapid rise of prediction market apps that are now operating in Utah. My response? You can bet on it.
Meet the Trump Official Fighting for Prediction Markets (WSJ, paywall): “Michael Selig oversees a federal agency created to regulate soybean futures. Now he’s helping Americans around the country bet on everything from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions to who will win the latest season of the reality TV show ‘Survivor.’ Less than two months into the job, the 36-year-old lawyer has come out swinging in favor of prediction markets such as those facilitated by the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sees their platforms as a way for society to channel the wisdom of crowds for useful information, offering a check on news media and other gatekeepers.”
“We’ve seen the eerie world of ‘1984’ where everything’s two plus two equals five,” Selig told The Wall Street Journal, referencing George Orwell’s dystopian novel. “These markets make sure that we get it right—and I think it’s very important to protect that here in the United States with the right guardrails.”
💡My take: Using ‘1984’ to defend betting on everything is certainly something you could do…
Meet the Trump Official Who’s Trying to Protect Prediction Markets (Zeteo, paywall): “Mike Selig, one of Donald Trump’s top financial regulators, is leading the charge to shield prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from state regulation. Coincidentally, he previously worked at a law firm that represents Polymarket – and he also represented a venture capital firm that led Kalshi’s funding round last summer.”
NCAA Requests That Kalshi Remove ‘March Madness’ Mentions (Gambling Harm): “The annual March Madness NCAA basketball tournament is a top betting event. But you’re not supposed to see it named on prediction markets like Kalshi. The NCAA hasn’t given Kalshi permission to use its federally registered trademark ‘March Madness.’ Kalshi can use something generic like ‘basketball tournament’ instead. In some instances, Kalshi uses the phrase ‘March Madness’ on its platform despite trademark restrictions.”
“The NCAA has previously addressed issues with Kalshi illegitimately using NCAA marks for their offerings,” the NCAA said in a statement to GamblingHarm.org on Friday. “This continues to be a misrepresentation of any NCAA involvement, and we have requested immediate removal of NCAA trademarks.”
💡My take: It looks like all references to March Madness and Final Four had been removed from Kalshi by Sunday night. So it apparently was a mistake.
It also looks like other prediction markets using the trademarked terms previously have changed the market titles by Sunday night:
Dustin Gouker@DustinGoukerRobinhood and OG also using trademarked terms
2:09 AM · Feb 21, 2026 · 1.54K Views1 Reply · 6 Likes
Twitter vs. prediction markets: The head of product for the social media site seems to be coming after prediction markets for undisclosed ads:
You Can Bet On It (New York Times, paywall): “But the bets now consuming the world, transacted instantaneously via online prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, are different from those weightier wagers of the past. These sites empower hobbyist prognosticators to bet on virtually anything. No bet is too trivial. The world is a gamblers’ playground, and we’re all part of the game. I recently became a grudging participant. I didn’t even get the chance to try my luck or lose any money. I simply existed, and thus became a vehicle for someone else’s speculation.”
Opinion | Minnesota must gather its wits about prediction markets (Star Tribune): “It’s important to note that there are many significant harms associated with prediction markets and the lack of appropriate state oversight. For example, by calling themselves ‘prediction markets’ rather than ‘sports gambling,’ these websites evade gambling age limits — most states require gamblers to be 21 and older. This is significant because, as the National Council on Problem Gambling has written, kids who begin gambling before age 18 have a ‘higher likelihood of developing a gambling problem.’ Indeed, the National Institutes of Health points out that gambling at a young age is extremely concerning since the younger brain ‘has a poor understanding of statistical probability’ that can lead to myriad problems associated with gambling addiction.”
Everyone can be a war profiteer in Gaza or Iran, thanks to online betting markets (The Forward): “At any moment, an alert might pop up about a catastrophic world event. Maybe Israel has bombed Iran, or Iran has bombed Israel. Maybe the U.S. has bombed Iran’s nuclear programs, or its capital of Tehran. That’s the world we live in. And, as long as things are so bad, you might as well profit on the start of World War III. … But the real game is on unregulated betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can, from the comfort of their couches on their phones, bet on pretty much anything — what phrases Trump will use in his next social media post, or when the next snow will hit New York City. … Many of the bets are frivolous, but there’s a darker world. Betting on Middle Eastern geopolitics has become hot on the platform; the likelihood of the U.S. striking Iran is currently the top trending market on Polymarket, with $313 million wagered. Bets on Israel’s geopolitical moves are also hot.”
The prop bets placed on Trump’s State of the Union address that are fielding millions for gamblers (NY Post): “President Trump’s fourth State of the Union is a betting bonanza for some gamblers. Online prediction sites Kalshi and Polymarket are fielding millions of dollars in wagers on the speech, with prop bets covering everything from whom Trump will attack to how long he’ll talk in his Tuesday address to the nation. Exactly 95% of bettors believe the president will say the word ‘China;’ another 92% believe a mention of ‘Biden’ will happen; and 93% of gamblers think he’ll say ‘America’ and/or “American” more than 25 times.”
The rise of Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based betting site for current events (Le Monde, paywall): “Will the United States strike Iran? Who will win the Super Bowl? The Oscars? The municipal elections in Paris? These uncertainties can pay off big on Polymarket. With a rather austere appearance, the American website presents thousands of questions, allowing bettors to wager on the outcome of current events and collect winnings if they choose correctly.”
