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Two of the biggest North American sports leagues are getting more comfortable with the idea of prediction markets… when will they dive in headfirst? Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto talks through the week in PM news with me. (And make sure to read his piece, Prediction Market Singularity, which we talk about in the pod.)
More news on the NBA and MLB fronts:
NBA Views Prediction Markets as the Same as Sports Betting (Front Office Sports): “But NBA commissioner Adam Silver, in his wide-ranging press conference at All-Star Weekend, said the league views them as “essentially” the same thing.”
“We currently are looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies,” Silver said Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles. “It’s rapidly evolving. Prediction markets have now come on the scene fairly recently as, I don’t know how else to say it, major sports betting marketplaces. Whether prediction markets are allowed to go forward in the form they’re in now will, I think, be ultimately an issue for the courts and for Congress.”
“Even if they go away,” Silver said, “the league is now dealing with essentially 40 different jurisdictions that have legalized sports betting in the United States. Still a huge illegal market. I’d say one other category that I hardly ever hear people talk about is that the last I looked, there are probably 80 countries in the world outside of the United States that also have legalized betting on the NBA. So it concerns me, in the totality of all this betting that we need a better handle, no pun intended, on all the different activity that’s happening out there.”
Giannis Just Speedran the NBA Star Playbook (Sportico): “Last week, Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo became the first NBA player to openly endorse — and take direct equity in — a prediction market platform. His Kalshi announcement, made in a five-word post on X, immediately drew criticism and vitriol from fans and media members. One podcast called it his ‘Breaking Bad turn.’ A Yahoo Sports columnist said he had put on a ‘masterclass in image torching.’ A conspiracy theory gained popularity that Antetokounmpo’s trade demands, betting action on Kalshi markets about his future and the shareholder announcement were all part of one large crypto-style rug pull (this theory has no legs).”
Damian Lillard trolled Giannis Antetokounmpo with Kalshi betting joke (USA Today): “Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo may not be teammates anymore, but it’s good to see they can still joke around like they are. Though if it was up to Antetokounmpo, Lillard’s latest joke probably would’ve stayed in the locker room.”
“After Lillard won the NBA all-star 3-point contest Saturday, he found Antetokounmpo in the tunnel and hit him with a quick burn about his recently announced Kalshi partnership as the Milwaukee Bucks star was signing autographs. ‘Did you place a... on Kalshi,’ Lillard appeared to say in a video posted by The Athletic’s Law Murray.”
And more on MLB’s stance on prediction markets from The Athletic:
“The interesting thing about the prediction markets is there’s an opportunity to work with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,” [Commissioner Rob Manfred] said. “If you got where you want it to be, you’d have a nice federal regulation, it’d be the same everywhere. Kind of a nice thing.”
The problem with Manfred’s line of thinking is it is not at all clear the CFTC will do any of what the leagues want. But I guess we’ll see!
And one last one:
Prediction markets love sports, but the feeling isn’t exactly mutual (Associated Press): “The rapid growth of sports offerings on prediction markets — called event contracts — has captured the attention of the four major North American sports, along with the NCAA and other organizations. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two biggest platforms, but they have plenty of company. More are on the way, too.”
“Some leagues have jumped on another revenue opportunity, while others have expressed concern about the regulation of prediction markets. But the money keeps rolling in. Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year.”
Prediction markets roundup
Can Meme Coins Power a Senate Bid? Virginia’s Mark Moran Says Yes (Decrypt): “Still, in trying to leverage his social media savvy for political gain, Moran recognized that he’s capable of making the occasional mistake. That included a $125 prediction on himself winning his race in June using Kalshi’s platform, which he shared on X, and later deleted. Kalshi prohibits individuals from wagering on themselves as part of its market integrity rules, classifying such actions as a form of market manipulation. A spokesperson told Decrypt the firm can’t comment on ‘ongoing investigations.’”
“I was curious if this market worked, and then I thought, ‘Oh, free advertising,’” Moran said. “Since then, I’ve spoken with Kalshi and explained to them what happened.”
Sen. Schiff, Cortez Masto, 21 Senate Democrats Demand CFTC Chair Reverse on Greenlighting Prediction Markets (press release): Today (Friday): U.S. Senators Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) led over 20 Democratic Senators to urge Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig to abstain from intervening in pending litigation involving prediction markets and to maintain the Commission’s prohibition on CFTC-registered platforms listing prediction contracts involving gaming, including sports, terrorism, assassination.
On November 19, 2025, Chairman Selig testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee that he would not pre-judge whether sports event contracts were “gaming” and repeatedly stated that he would look to the courts. Instead, Selig has unilaterally proceeded with rulemaking and intervening in ongoing litigation. Last week, he posted that he ‘strongly disagrees’ that prediction markets violate the law, a stark reversal of prior statements before Congress.
“The real-world consequences are already evident. Prediction market platforms are offering contracts that mirror sportsbook wagers and, in some cases, contracts tied to war and armed conflict. These products evade state and tribal consumer protections, generate no public revenue, and undermine sovereign regulatory regimes,” wrote the Senators.
“We therefore urge you to realign the Commission’s actions with the statute and with the testimony you provided to Congress under oath. Declining to intervene on behalf of prediction market platforms and clarifying by rule that enumerated activities are contrary to the public interest would restore confidence that the CFTC is enforcing the law Congress enacted—not reshaping it through post-hoc policy shifts,” continued the Senators.
This letter is signed by Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawai’i.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).
Full letter here.
Kalshi hit $3 billion in weekly volume this week: More behind the paywall over at The Closing Line.
More sports at Kalshi: Kalshi recently self-certified markets on pro sports drafts (including one about the NBA draft lottery), golf tournaments, and pro sports athlete salaries:
CNBC apparently invested in Kalshi: Previously, we didn’t know much about the commercial terms in a deal between Kalshi and CNBC. A press release from CNBC didn’t talk about it at all. As recently as January, CNBC merely included a disclosure that said “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship.”
Now, a disclaimer on prediction markets content at CNBC says: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment.”
Two good Substacks on prediction markets!
Polymarket and a market about a shuttle explosion: A bit to unpack here…Polymarket apparently put up a market about whether NASA’s Artemis II mission would explode:
Adam Johnson@adamjohnsonCHISorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal!
1:46 AM · Feb 15, 2026 · 1.52M Views99 Replies · 392 Reposts · 5.39K LikesObviously, that looks like a market where you would also be betting on whether a bunch of astronauts might die, although Polymarket responded to the above saying
Polymarket@Polymarket@adamjohnsonCHI To clarify: this was a market about a potential booster-stage rupture — a defined hardware failure scenario — not about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety. This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life.8:35 PM · Feb 15, 2026 · 184K Views69 Replies · 3 Reposts · 116 LikesNo matter what the markets was actually about, the optics were pretty poor, and on Twitter it was quickly framed as being able to bet on astronauts’ deaths.
Polymarket apparently took enough heat that it eventually changed the market to whether there would be a “booster rupture.”
Two more tweets before we move on. First, a professor was apparently equating the market about am Artemis II explosion to “life insurance” which is one of the dumber things I have seen on Twitter:
Will 🦥 Menaker@willmenakerMe owning a life insurance policy on Alex Tabarrok without his knowledge or consent is definitely illegal.
Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrokLife insurance should be illegal?3:27 PM · Feb 15, 2026 · 142K Views21 Replies · 91 Reposts · 4.21K Likes
Samwise Picklesimer@SammyPickles96*watching the challenger explosion in elementary school* fuck yeah my parlay hit
Adam Johnson @adamjohnsonCHISorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal!3:50 AM · Feb 15, 2026 · 802K Views26 Replies · 759 Reposts · 24.5K Likes
What did Bernie Sanders say, according to prediction markets?: Another week, another controversy in resolving a prediction market. This time, there was a market at Kalshi about what Sen. Bernie Sanders would say at a rally. Simple enough, right? There are a bunch of markets every day about what people will say.
Things went sideways when Sanders apparently said a bunch of the listed strikes/words, but they resolved to “no:”
TB 🔜🫵💰@turtlebearToday was my first time using @Kalshi, I had a rollercoaster experience with a Bernie Sanders market - I am in no way an expert on the rules, the exact opposite. Anyone who trades mention markets there, your advice would be appreciated. I hammered a few yes markets while1:05 AM · Feb 13, 2026 · 16.9K Views10 Replies · 5 Reposts · 23 LikesWhy? Apparently, none of the sources were deemed to have fit the rules for resolution, despite it being quite clear that he said some of the words per video sources. Here are the rules from Kalshi for the market:
Some people on Kalshi’s Discord, Reddit and the “Ideas” section of the Bernie mention market were less than pleased with the outcome.
So, if Kalshi isn’t really capable of delivering the truth on what a person says, what is the point of a mention market like this, other than gambling on who can read the rules the best? That’s not terribly useful in the world.
So this… is just gambling?
Polymarket@PolymarketBitcoin up or down? 5 minute up/down crypto polymarkets are now live. Powered & secured by Chainlink 🤝4:15 PM · Feb 13, 2026 · 41.5M Views634 Replies · 491 Reposts · 6.53K LikesBad Bunny’s dancers, Kalshi, and the insider trading problem:
Prediction markets take a bigger bite of US sports gambling pie (Financial Times): “Sports wagers on Kalshi, the prediction market start-up whose popularity has surged since the 2024 US presidential election, are now delivering estimated annualised revenues of about $1.3bn.”
Polymarket investor Vitalik Buterin says prediction markets need to stop catering to ‘dumb opinions’ (The Block): “Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said he is ‘starting to worry’ about the state of prediction markets, arguing that the sector’s growing reliance on uninformed speculators threatens its long-term viability. In a post on X on Friday, Buterin called on platforms to pivot from speculative gambling toward AI-powered hedging tools designed around real-world consumer spending.”
“Prediction markets ‘seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value,’ Buterin wrote.
Mohegan backs Connecticut crackdown on prediction markets threatening tribal gaming exclusivity (Tribal Business News): “The Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority is backing Connecticut’s efforts to stop prediction market operators from offering what tribal officials call illegal sports betting that violates the tribe’s exclusive gaming rights in the state. During a first-quarter earnings call Thursday, Mohegan Chief Financial Officer Ari Glazer said the tribe is working with state officials to halt unlicensed gambling on platforms that allow users to wager on sports outcomes.”
“I think the two Connecticut-based Native American tribes have exclusivity on all forms of gaming in Connecticut, and we are actively working with all of the Connecticut constituents and regulators and government to ensure that that is the case,” Glazer said.
As prediction markets boom, Nevada fights to protect betting base (Las Vegas Sun): “Nevada’s political and gaming establishment is moving to choke off a Trump‑era rival to sports betting that just had a breakout Super Bowl. … Sportsbooks took in about $133.8 million in wagers on the game, the state’s lowest Super Bowl handle in roughly a decade. .. At the same time, users on the prediction market Kalshi traded more than $1 billion in Super Bowl‑related contracts, a spike its CEO called a 2,700% increase from last year.”
Unpacking the uproar over prediction markets (Las Vegas Review Journal): This is an op-ed from Sean Patrick Maloney, who is the chairman of the Coalition for Prediction Markets.
“The American Gaming Association recently launched an effort targeting these markets. AGA officials claim they’re ‘unsafe.’ But AGA officials aren’t concerned about your well-being. The organization’s existence rests on taking advantage of people. And they’re worried about losing their monopolies.”
Some critical context for the Coalition’s stance here… the group was organized by someone who worked at the AGA and now works for Kalshi!
Investors trade sports, Oscars and the price of gold as prediction markets take off (Crain’s Chicago Business, paywall): “CME Group is letting retail traders predict Oscar winners and Fed decisions while Cboe sticks to benchmark stock indexes as the exchange operators look to grab their share of the fast-growing event prediction market — and the retail traders behind its popularity.”
Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born (NBC News): “The billion-dollar prediction markets industry began like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar. … Professor Robert Forsythe and two of his University of Iowa colleagues, George Neumann and Forrest Nelson, wondered how economics might do a better job than traditional polls. … By the time they finished their meal, the trio had settled on an idea: a marketplace for betting on the outcome of events that could serve as a tool for forecasters.”
The Oscars Have Become Less Capable of Surprise (IndieWire): This is not a prediction markets story, but I think it’s relevant since there will be betting on the Oscars!
“So for all the improvements the Academy continues to make in terms of getting the voter base to attend more screenings and consider more contenders, more often than not, the voters are already set in their ways on what people and films they will vote to win — sometimes, even before they watch the films.”
Prediction markets vs. insider trading: Founders admit blockchain transparency is the only defense (CoinDesk): “Prediction markets are increasingly being framed not as gambling platforms but as vehicles for monetizing information, though founders acknowledged the line can blur depending on user intent at Consensus Hong Kong 2026.”
