While scrolling on Twitter, I saw an interesting assertion from Kalshi: that it was now projecting $100 billion in annualized trading volume.
I saw the number and kind of wondered for a minute how they got to it, but then I moved on to the rest of my day.
Later, I realized what they did:
They took the trailing seven days of volume of just under $2 billion (which I reported on Tuesday).
Multiplied it by 52.
Let’s start here: 1. it’s certainly possible that Kalshi hits $100 billion in annualized volume over the next year, and 2. predicting annualized volume is difficult at present.
But Kalshi took a very busy week of football — which included the final weekend of the NFL regular season and the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs — and used that to project annual volume.
That’s a pretty unserious way to arrive at annual volume. Why?
Kalshi’s current volume is highly dependent on the sports calendar. Sports generally account for more than 90% of total volume.
The final three months of the year are the busiest time for sports (and betting on sports) with football and basketball (both pro and college) going on.
Handle at US sportsbooks is much smaller over the summer months, sometimes as much as a third or half of the busiest months. (The World Cup in the US this summer should help, however.)
Again, I won’t say anything in absolutes, but I would be skeptical that Kalshi will keep replicating $2 billion weeks as there are fewer and fewer football games. After the Super Bowl and March Madness — with a slower sports calendar — Kalshi volume will be dependent on a variety of factors like:
How it is scaling its own user base and its third-party integrations.
If users are adopting non-sports markets in a material way.
How big betting on the World Cup is.
How much trading there is on the mid-term elections.
And on and on.
I don’t know the best way to project annualized volume for Kalshi. But I can tell you that taking the busiest week in the company’s history and using that as a baseline isn’t very serious math.
Prediction markets roundup
Kalshi Adds VIP Program For ‘Most Loyal’ Traders (Legal Sports Report): “Kalshi is focusing on user retention with a VIP program in the works for its best customers.”
“Similar to other financial markets, brokerages, and large consumer brands, we’re piloting a program that offers priority support and other benefits to some of our most loyal customers,” said Kalshi’s Head of Communications Elisabeth Diana, confirming reports of the program circulating on social media Tuesday.
More coverage from InGame. Here is the tweet (and email) that first brought to light the existence of the program, which also sounds a lot like what VIPs at sportsbooks get:
CSPTrading.eth@CSP_TradingBreaking: Kalshi appears to be rolling out a 'Host' program for high volume sports betting accounts similar to what Draftkings and other casinos offer. Some of the perks mentioned are comped dinners, tickets to sporting events, and free merch
3:50 PM · Jan 6, 2026 · 68.9K Views18 Replies · 14 Reposts · 304 Likes
Google Ads To Allow Ads For Prediction Markets (Search Engine Roundtable): Google Ads will update its advertising policies to allow ads for Prediction Markets starting on January 21, 2026. This will be allowed in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities.
Google announced, “Google is updating its advertising policies on January 21, 2026, to permit ads for Prediction Markets (defined as platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events) in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities.”
Advertisers must apply for certification through Google to run ads targeting the United States. Eligibility is limited to entities who meet the following criteria:
Those authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business must be the listing of Exchange-Listed Event Contracts (e.g., specialized platforms listing economic or sports outcomes); or
Those authorized as a Brokerage by the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer third-party access to products listed by a DCM that meets the criteria specified above.
Polymarket Users Approve Of New Fees On 15-Minute Crypto Markets (DeFi Rate): “Blockchain-based prediction market giant Polymarket quietly updated its documentation on Tuesday to enable taker-only fees on 15-minute crypto up/down markets. Until now, the global Polymarket platform has remained fee-free.”
“We’re rolling out Maker Rebates for 15-minute crypto markets; a program designed to make these fast-moving markets deeper, tighter, and easier to trade,” reads the new documentation. “Market makers who provide active liquidity (orders that get filled) earn daily USDC rebates, proportional to the liquidity they provide.”
Polymarket charging some fees?: From Twitter:
JesterTheGoose@JesterthegooseAlso, just 1 hour ago, they updated their public fee GitHub repo for the first time in nearly 5 months. This is a pretty huge change for Polymarket, which historically (at least in recent history) has had zero fees on all markets.github.comFeat: collector by JonathanAmenechi · Pull Request #4 · Polymarket/exchange-fee-module2:40 AM · Jan 6, 2026 · 13.6K Views1 Reply · 1 Repost · 66 LikesThe drumbeat of coverage on potential insider trading at prediction markets continues at major outlets:
The Polymarket Bets on Maduro Are a Warning (The Atlantic): “Perhaps the bettor just got phenomenally lucky. Or perhaps they knew about the raid ahead of time and leveraged it for a quick payout. We can’t know, because Polymarket, a so-called prediction market where people turn their idle hunches into real cash, allows some of its customers to remain anonymous. Traders place their bets using crypto, which could provide another layer of cover. The Maduro trade has generated a huge amount of speculation and controversy; the internet is now full of jokes that Barron Trump, hunched behind dual monitors in his NYU dorm room, may have been behind it.”
Do prediction markets have an insider trading problem? (Politico): “The rise of the prediction markets has been welcomed by many — especially by politically minded techno-libertarians — who are frustrated with what they perceive to be biased media and faulty polls. It helps explain why splashy investors in Polymarket and its chief competitor, Kalshi, include Peter Thiel, Donald Trump Jr., and Marc Andreessen. But many elite traders — which is to say, the whales at the casino — are openly left-of-center. What unites these groups is a belief that markets have an important social purpose: to get closer to the truth.”
“Suspicions of insider trading and other forms of manipulation, however, have some in the political class second-guessing that idea. Some political operatives contend that campaigns can game Polymarket and Kalshi’s betting markets to gaslight the public — a concern that gained wider reach after Kalshi announced a data partnership with CNN in December.”
Prediction Markets Are Becoming a National Security Problem (Slate): “Likely as it may be that the abduction of Nicolás Maduro becomes a world-historic imperialist debacle, we can say one thing for the U.S. military’s top brass: The actual operation went off without a hitch. Maduro did not see it coming, despite weeks of American saber-rattling about removing him. The New York Times reported that the military maintained tactical surprise when it descended upon Caracas. That was lucky. There was just one thing Maduro or someone in his inner circle needed to do to get a decent idea of the imminent American raid upon him: Pull up a specific betting market on Polymarket, the prediction-contract trading platform.”
Polymarket disputes capture of Maduro amounted to invasion (Financial Times, paywall)
Prediction markets show rising odds Trump seizes Panama Canal, moves on Greenland (CNBC): “Prediction market traders ramped up bets that more international shake-ups may lie ahead in the wake of President Donald Trump’s raid on Venezuela. Traders on the burgeoning platforms have recently committed money based on where the White House might turn its focus next. The amped-up bets come as Wall Street and Main Street note the Trump administration’s shift toward quick and forceful international strikes.”
“The big takeaway for investors is Trump is growing much more comfortable with, and confident in, the use of military force,” Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote to clients on Monday. “His first year in his second term was characterized by boundless energy and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the use of the military.”
Prediction Market Legislation: How States Are Responding to a Growing Regulatory Gap (Duane Morris): “While much of the regulation of prediction markets has occurred through enforcement actions and regulatory correspondence, state legislatures have begun to examine whether statutory changes are needed to address prediction markets directly. Heading into 2026, New York and Pennsylvania offer early examples of how states are approaching prediction markets from different angles.
It’s Time to See if Prediction Markets Can Sway States’ Sports Betting Skeptics (Covers): “As the legislative season approaches, the pro-sports betting crowd is preparing to brandish an old argument - but with a new twist. For years, proponents of legalizing sports betting in any given state have argued that it’s already happening via offshore sportsbooks or illegal bookies, so better to regulate and tax it than not. That argument has been at least partly responsible for most states legalizing sports betting, 39 and counting.”
“However, that still leaves 11 holdouts, and lawmakers in some of those states are preparing again to debate sports betting in their upcoming legislative sessions. This year, they’ll at least have one more argument to make, or another example of unauthorized wagering to which they can point at more vigorously. You probably guessed what it is already: prediction markets.”
@dustin -- Forget about the extrapolation math, what about what *volume* is being considered real volume? We just broke down some of Polymarket volume figures for their Super Bowl winner futures markets and it includes *useless* volume like Wash Trades...