Did Cardi B 'Perform' During The Super Bowl Halftime Show? Prediction Markets Aren't Sure!
Cardi B was clearly a part of Bad Bunny’s halftime show, for anyone with two eyeballs.
But did she “perform” during the show? Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket weren’t able to tell us that, even after the show was over.
To start things off, Cardi B was on the field and dancing during part of the show:
I think a lot of rational people would probably say that means she “performed” at the show… she was dancing and on camera, after all.
But what do the prediction markets say?
At Kalshi, more than half an hour after the show was over, there were still millions of dollars being traded on whether she performed, with her odds moving up and down:
Why? Because the rules could easily be read in a way that allows either side of the “yes/no” market to win. Here are the full rules for the market:
First, the rules say “performs” can include “dancing,” which we all clearly saw her do on the broadcast. But we also have that “dancing or appearing on stage…” for the purposes of the market “does NOT constitute a performance.” Good luck figuring out which should win.
Later in the night, Kalshi suspended the market and then paid it out at the last traded price. From Kalshi.com:
Important information: Due to ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance’, Kalshi is invoking Rule 6.3(c) to settle this market to the last traded price before trading was paused. Those prices are $0.26 for Yes holders and $0.74 for No holders. Conversely, per Kalshi’s full rules, celebrities that danced in the background during the halftime show but did not visibly sing or play an instrument did not “perform” for purposes of the contract.
There was no great answer here, given how poorly the rules were written.
Over at Polymarket, we had the opposite trend, with the market trending toward being resolved to “yes”:
Here are the resolution terms:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cardi B performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LX halftime show currently scheduled for February 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Using a common-sense reading, she “performed,” right?
The bigger issue, of course, is that the sites that tell us they are “truth machines” are having an issue telling us what the truth is. The value of “price discovery” and “economic consequences” are pretty minimal here, so if we can’t get good information on a market resolution… why are we doing this other than gambling, exactly?
The news doesn’t seem to be confused!
According to Kalshi's rules there are three components to the payout criterion. They allege there is ambiguity on what a "performance" is defined as and use their definition of what does not constitute a performance to invoke rule 6.3 and nullify winnings for those who bought "YES".
TL;DR: This explanation is bunk, all three criterion were fulfilled and I will break it down below.
Let's look at the contract:
Official Product Name: “Will <performer> perform at <event> ?”
Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that <performer> performs (or it is announced that they will perform at) at <event> during the official event time frame.
For purposes of this Contract, "performs" means:
The performer appears on stage or in the official broadcast/stream [c]
AND Performs (including dancing*, singing, DJ-ing, e.g.)*
AND Is either a scheduled performer OR makes a guest appearance during another artist’s performance
So did Karol G/ Cardi B satisfy criterion 1?
✅ Absolutely, both were seen on stage and in the official broadcast*.* That is undeniable and not ambiguous.
Did they also satisfy criterion 2?
✅ Yes, they performed by dancing during the official broadcast. "Performs" here clearly defines dancing in the parenthetical. Note: This is the only place where Performs is defined, lower they define "a performance" however this criterion does not have the word performance so there is no reason to use a definition of a performance in this criterion.
Did they also satisfy criterion 3?
YES.
✅ Both Karol G and Cardi B "made a guest appearance during another artist’s performance"
They made a guest appearance during Bad Bunny's performance.
That's it. That's the undeniable, unambiguous answer. Guest appearance is not defined in specific terms. However, they certainly appeared on stage and they were guests as they were not announced as headlining. The only reason you would invalidate this is if you were unsure if Bad Bunny had a performance.
This is where the analysis should end. The contract does not ask if Karol G or Cardi B had a performance. It simply asks whether they would perform and in criterion 2 "Perform was undeniably defined as (dancing.)
Now, later Kalshi has all these definitions and examples of what constitutes a performance. Performance is only mentions in Criterion 3 so that's the only context that should be used to interpret whether Criterion 3 was fulfilled.
Clearly Bad Bunny had a performance and Karol G and Cardi B made a guest appearance.
So why are there questions about the performance?
If you agree that Bad Bunny had a performance then you don't need to look any further.
Kalshi's rules say:
The following constitutes a performance: (note you just need one of these to be true, not all they are different possible scenarios.)
Solo performances
Collaborative performances where <performer> is on stage - This satisfies the requirement. Bad Bunny had a performance where Karol G and Cardi B were on stage.
Guest appearances where <performer> performs vocals or instruments[d][e]
Medleys that include <performer>’s music if <performer> is performing
Pre-recorded performances that are presented as part of the official event
The following does NOT constitute a performance:
Appearing only as an award presenter or host
Being in the audience without performing[f]
Having their music played without their participation
Appearing in video montages or tribute segments without performing
Pre-show or post-show performances outside the official event timeframe
Performances that are cancelled or cut short before reaching 30 seconds
Sound check or rehearsal footage
Dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments - Kalshi points here saying that this rule invalidates things or makes it ambiguous, but this should only be used when looking at criterion 3, when you are trying to identify if a performance was made and the performance was made my Bad Bunny. If Bad Bunny had a performance (which clearly he did) there should be no ambiguity.
Kalshi definitely had seemingly contradictory information. However, they actually were quite clear on what "Performs" means in this case by specifically defining it as (including dancing*, singing, DJ-ing.)* So long as there was a performance (and there was by Bad Bunny) the three criterion clearly show Karol G and Cardi B as "Performs" in that performance as guest appearances who danced in the broadcast.
Kalshi, pay up.