Men’s college basketball is the most traded sport on Kalshi right now, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Hoops are popular, and there are hundreds of games played each week in the college ranks.
What is surprising is some of the games that have been among the biggest in terms of volume in the past month.
We’ll get back to that in a bit. Let’s start with the top-line numbers:
In the trailing 30 days, there has been $8.9 billion in trading volume at Kalshi.
82% of that volume is on sports.
NCAA men’s basketball moneylines are the single biggest category at Kalshi, at 17% of all volume, or $1.8 billion.
That figure rises to 22% of all volume if we include betting on point spreads and points scored (or about another half a billion dollars in volume).
That likely means we are going to see a huge March for college hoops trading, between championship week and March Madness (the NCAA tournament).
Many of the biggest games by volume involved power-conference schools in nationally televised games. The biggest game by volume in the trailing 30 was Houston vs. Iowa State, with almost $20 million in moneyline volume. That was a close game between two teams ranked in the top 5.
But two games buck that trend: a pair of Coastal Athletic Association matchups involving teams with middling records.
NC A&T vs. Hampton, Feb. 13, $9.2 million in moneyline volume (16th biggest game by volume in trailing 30 days)
Towson vs. Monmouth, Feb. 15, $8.3 million in moneyline volume (22nd biggest game by volume in trailing 30 days)
Editor’s note before we proceed: I am not implying that anything nefarious is going on here, and I really doubt there was. But the data is interesting!
So what’s going on here? Here are some details about the games.
Both games were played during NBA All-Star Weekend, so there wasn’t as much NBA to bet on.
Both games were broadcast on national TV, despite featuring less-than-stellar games and teams (all four were hovering around .500 by record at the time).
A&T vs. Hampton was the HBCU Classic at All-Star Weekend; it was played at 8 pm Pacific. In the second half, there would have been no other games going on.
Towson vs. Monmouth was on CBS Sports Network.
Both games were very close, decided by just one point.
Most of the above translates to tailwinds that would lead to more betting. But The Event Horizon understands that far less than this would have been bet on both games at state-regulated sportsbooks, across all available game markets, not just the moneyline.
(Important side note, as always: Handle is not volume. Translating the volume of those games to a number that corresponds to handle is difficult. But even if we guess that retail handle derived from the Kalshi volume numbers on these games is half of the total, I understand that still to be significantly more than sports books likely saw on these two games.)
So why might there have been so much volume on these games? Some possible explanations:
Some of it clearly stems from how close the games were. The moneyline markets are orders of magnitude bigger than other sports markets at Kalshi, in part because there is a lot of trading on outcomes during the games. Every time people buy or sell positions, that’s creating new volume. When games are tight, that means more volume than normal on the moneyline. Both games check that box.
People could be redeploying their money more often into games/sports they don’t usually bet on than they do at sportsbooks. The games being played on days and times without much competition probably helped.
It’s feasible we saw more sharp/market making action on these games for some reason — someone really has a read on the CAA? — leading to increased volume. It’s difficult to chalk all of the increased betting interest up solely to timing and the close finishes. These just weren’t marquee matchups.
Honestly, Towson vs. Monmouth is the harder of the two games to rationalize all the volume, even though there wasn’t a ton of competition for eyeballs when the game was played. It was the most traded game of the day, by more than a million dollars.
No matter how we try to rationalize or explain it, it’s pretty weird that CAA games became two of the biggest college basketball games of 2026 at Kalshi. And it’s eye-opening to see how much money is changing hands on fairly insignificant college games (no offense to the teams and players in question).
All of it underlines that with football over, college basketball is king, for now, at Kalshi. And March Madness will be a massive event for the nascent prediction market.
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Prediction markets roundup
FanDuel parent company Flutter on prediction markets in Q4 earnings: From the press release, Flutter expects “an increase in prediction markets investment with adjusted EBITDA loss expected to be toward the top of previously guided range of $200m - $300m.”
CEO Peter Jackson noted that “we have not identified any evidence of any meaningful impact” from cannibalization from prediction markets.
Excerpts from a letter to shareholders: In the US we maintained our clear leadership position in both sports betting and iGaming, while expanding our addressable market through the launch of FanDuel Predicts at the end of Q4. We believe this new product enables us to harness a significant and incremental expansion of the US addressable market ahead of further state regulation - a space where our scale and experience give us a natural advantage. …
We undertook a comprehensive review of potential cannibalization from prediction markets and we have not identified any evidence of any meaningful impact. The review combined industry channel checks, third party data analysis of deposits, actives, and app download trends, and detailed analysis of FanDuel customer trends. Based on this robust analysis, we estimate the potential handle growth impact to be in the low single digits percentage points and we are confident that the prediction markets have not been a significant driver of the moderating customer and handle trends we have observed. This finding is reinforced by our Missouri launch, where customer acquisition trends were well ahead of expectations, reaching 5% of the population within the first 30 days, making Missouri one of our best state launches to date. We do, however, believe prediction market operators may be attracting some new, incremental entertainment-first recreational customer cohorts. …
Prediction markets are a significant incremental growth opportunity for FanDuel. We believe the emergence of prediction markets will accelerate the path to state regulation of online sports betting and iGaming. This, in our view, is the most valuable long-term opportunity in the US. In the meantime, the additional near to medium-term growth potential for FanDuel is significant. We believe prediction markets will be TAM expansive; broadening reach by bringing sports markets to the approximately 40% of the US population who cannot currently access online regulated sportsbooks, and through the acquisition of new sports and “entertainment first” customers into the FanDuel ecosystem. We are exceptionally well positioned to harness this opportunity given the nationwide strength of the FanDuel brand and our sports betting expertise, our deep understanding of this space gained through operating the Betfair Exchange, and our powerful strategic partnership with CME Group.
We launched FanDuel Predicts as planned in late Q4, providing customers nationwide access to financial, economic and commodity contracts, alongside sports contracts in 18 states including California, Florida and Texas. Early engagement has been encouraging, with the vast majority of the activity focused on sports, and average volume per customer in line with expectations. The trajectory of product development is expected to increase significantly in the coming months ahead of the FIFA World Cup and particularly in advance of the commencement of the 2026/27 NFL season.
We are also actively pursuing options to leverage our world-class, proprietary pricing capabilities for market-making services. Flutter is uniquely positioned to price complex, correlated markets in real- time through our outcome-based pricing capability, and we will share further details of our plans here in due course.
Guidance for 2026 reflects adjusted EBITDA investment toward the high end of our previously stated range of between $200m and $300m. Consistent with our product roadmap, we expect customer engagement and activity to be heavily skewed to the second half of 2026 and our investment will therefore reflect a similar profile. Our priority is to build value for the future, while also maintaining the flexibility to accelerate investment. We believe this will position FanDuel to deliver future growth and harness the long-term opportunities for our business.
As Sportico’s Dan Bernstein notes:
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_Flutter essentially confirms an affiliated prediction market trading arm is on the way.
9:16 PM · Feb 26, 2026 · 2.6K Views1 Reply · 3 Reposts · 14 Likes
Penn Entertainment Is Staying Away From Prediction Markets (Front Office Sports): “Penn Entertainment is staying out of prediction markets, with CEO Jay Snowden saying Thursday that controversy surrounding sports event contracts has put companies like his in an ‘awkward position,’ and that he hopes the U.S. Supreme Court steps in sooner rather than later. Snowden, speaking during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, was asked about his views on the rapidly growing prediction-market industry…”
“That’s a fully loaded question on a really controversial topic,” Snowden said. He noted his thoughts “really haven’t changed” since the third-quarter earnings call, which is when he said prediction markets represent a “major threat.” But he elaborated, saying that the legality of sports event contracts is “clear as mud” right now, and that Penn has no plans to risk its gaming licenses, which he called “the most valuable assets we have.”
Churchill Downs weighs in (CDC Gaming): “Prediction markets have captured the attention of the gaming industry, but CEO Bill Carstanjen, noting the Interstate Horse Racing Act, does not believe they are a threat to Churchill Downs’ prospects. To wager on horse racing from Churchill Downs’ needs the company’s consent.”
“We haven’t agreed to provide our content to prediction markets,” Carstanjen said. “We feel like we have plenty of distribution, and we like the terms of our distribution, so that’s our focus for delivering access to our content to the customer base out there. For the time being, that’s how we expect to proceed, and that’s what’s best for our customers and our constituents, including the horsemen. Prediction markets are not a part of the current mutual wagering on horse racing, nor what I expect them to be any time in the future.”
A growth play on online sports gambling stocks (Fidelity): Fidelity Portfolio Manager Peter Belisle has raised the stakes in his view of the online sports-betting market, which he says has benefited from broader legalization across the U.S., rising user engagement and improving profit margins. …
Belisle’s constructive view of the industry is reflected in the fund’s sizable exposure to DraftKings and Flutter as of December 31, 2025. Both stocks came under pressure in 2025 following the rollout of prediction-markets businesses, an unregulated form of betting that offered new entrants a backdoor into sports gambling. Although many investors believed this model posed a competitive threat to the market share of DraftKings and Flutter, Belisle holds a different view.
“I think this perspective is overly simplistic and doesn’t appreciate the difference in product complexity between prediction markets and online sportsbooks,” he says. “In 2026 and beyond, I think it will become increasingly clear that prediction markets are not displacing sportsbooks – and there may be some eventual legal challenges anyway – all of which sets up well for reversing this negative narrative.”
Long Islanders are betting big on prediction markets — and some are spiraling into debt (Newsday): “Ben K. downloaded Kalshi in August after the betting app’s turquoise logo caught his attention in an advertisement while he was watching an NHL game. That was the start of a short but destructive cycle for the 21-year-old college student from Melville, who asked to keep his last name private because he’s worried how the story of his betting problems could affect future job prospects. He said he consistently blew nearly $2,000 paychecks on bets through apps that included prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket….”
“Ben said he is around $15,000 in debt, about $3,000 of which came from betting on sports games through prediction markets. He’s since joined Gamblers Anonymous Long Island, where many of his peers similarly struggled with prediction markets and other gambling apps. One member, Victor S., of Massapequa said he lost around $100,000 over the course of seven months to prediction markets.”
Beast Industries CEO: Prediction markets are ‘ripe for abuse’ amid insider trading allegation (CNBC, video): “Jeff Housenbold, Beast Industries president and CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss prediction markets and the need for regulation after reports that prediction market platform Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor for insider trading tied to markets related to the YouTube star.”
AGA decries prediction markets (press release): Industry leaders and lawmakers continue to take a stand against prediction markets offering sports contracts outside state and tribal regulatory frameworks. These platforms operate without state oversight, are not subject to the same consumer protection and responsible gaming standards, and do not contribute tax revenue. …
“With 2025 marking another record year, the industry’s performance reinforces a clear principle,” added AGA President Bill Miller. “Sports betting belongs under state and tribal regulation. That’s how consumers are protected and how communities share in the benefits.”
More from the AGA on the state of the industry today, including a chat with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on prediction markets:
Trump Officials Mock Gaming Industry for Enlisting Chris Christie as Adviser (Breitbart): “Trump administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, tell Breitbart News the AGA has made a major mistake in partnering with the never-Trumper.”
“I cannot think of a worse bet for the casino industry to make than hiring Chris Christie, a guy who is strongly disliked in the White House and around the administration. Was Karine Jean-Pierre not available?” one Trump administration official said.
“One senior Trump administration official tells Breitbart News Christie’s track record of losing political battles bodes poorly for the gaming industry.”
“Chris Christie has been on the losing side of every political battle he’s fought since bridgegate. He’s one of the most despised figures among Trump staffers, Trump himself hates him, and he hasn’t done anything relevant in a decade,” the senior official said. “The gaming industry is in a precarious position right now and this is an unforced error.”
DriveWealth and Kalshi Announce Plans to Expand Global Access to Regulated Prediction Markets (Press release): DriveWealth, a global B2B Brokerage-as-a-Service platform designed to make investing easier for partners and their customers, and Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market, today announced partnership plans. Through this collaboration, DriveWealth aims to integrate Kalshi’s event contracts into its API-first brokerage platform, enabling DriveWealth’s partners to offer event-driven markets alongside equities, ETFs, and other traditional asset classes within a unified investing experience.
As retail and digital-first investors increasingly seek new ways to express macro views and manage risk, prediction markets are emerging as a complementary and increasingly in-demand asset class. This collaboration plans to combine DriveWealth’s global distribution network and scalable brokerage infrastructure with Kalshi’s leadership in prediction markets to broaden access in a compliant, seamless manner.
“Our integration with Kalshi strengthens our ability to deliver cutting-edge market opportunities to our partners,” said Naureen Hassan, CEO of DriveWealth. “DriveWealth was built to power the future of global investing through scalable, API-driven technology, and Kalshi’s forward-thinking approach to market design makes for a natural fit. Together, we’re uniquely positioned to equip our partners with the latest financial innovations and next-generation market access for their clients. …”
By embedding these contracts directly into digital investing platforms, DriveWealth partners will be able to provide clients with innovative tools for portfolio diversification and risk management, delivered within an existing brokerage framework that prioritizes compliance, operational efficiency, and scale.
“DriveWealth’s global reach and embedded brokerage infrastructure make them an ideal partner to Kalshi,” said Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi. “Our goal is to provide leading fintech platforms with more access to regulated prediction markets.”
Senator Turner Introduces Bill to Regulate and Prohibit Certain Prediction Markets in New Jersey (press release): To protect consumers and preserve the integrity of New Jersey’s established sports betting system, Senate President Pro Tempore Shirley K. Turner (D-Mercer/Hunterdon) today announced the introduction of S-3692, legislation that would prohibit unregulated prediction markets in New Jersey and require that any markets involving athletic events operate under the State’s existing sports betting laws. …
“New Jersey already has a comprehensive, tightly regulated sports betting system that prioritizes consumer protection, responsible gaming, and transparency,” said Senator Turner. “Allowing prediction markets to offer similar wagering opportunities without those same guardrails creates an uneven playing field and exposes residents to unnecessary risk.”
Under the bill, prediction markets involving political elections, deaths, or catastrophic events would be prohibited. Any market offering contracts tied to athletic events would be required to obtain proper licensure or partner with a licensed sports betting operator in the State. The legislation would also establish consumer protection standards, anti-fraud requirements, and transparency measures, and authorize the Attorney General to seek injunctive relief and significant civil penalties against operators that violate the law.
“New Jersey should never allow people to profit from human suffering or turn our democratic process into a betting market,” Senator Turner said. “When money is tied to outcomes, it creates incentives for manipulation and abuse, whether involving elections, public discourse, or sporting events. If a company is offering products that look and function like sports betting, they should be subject to the same rules, oversight, and responsibility to protect consumers. This legislation draws a clear line between innovation and exploitation.”
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Gambling Is an Intelligence Asset (WSJ, paywall): “America’s adversaries are always searching for an edge—advance warning of a military strike, a window into classified decision-making, a tool to sow panic in financial markets. They may have found all three in the same place: prediction markets.”
Prediction markets work just like gambling. Kansas, regulate them the same | Opinion (Kansas City Star): “I served on the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission, worked with 34 different lotteries in my career and introduced a sports betting bill when I was in the Kansas Legislature. To me, a prediction market looks, smells and walks like gaming. But, under the CFTC, prediction markets operate with few, if any, restrictions on trading. When will someone announce, ‘Prediction markets are gambling?! I am shocked — shocked!’?”
Kalshi bets on Neal Katyal in prediction market cases (Reuters): “Prediction-market operators are tapping high-powered lawyers in a wave of regulatory battles with U.S. states that want to shut down or restrict their fast‑growing event‑contracts businesses. Neal Katyal, who leads law firm Milbank’s U.S. Supreme Court practice, appeared for Kalshi this week in a lawsuit the company filed against Utah regulators. Katyal, who was acting U.S. solicitor general under President Barack Obama, is also representing Kalshi in similar cases in Nevada, Ohio, Maryland, Connecticut and Tennessee.”
Denmark moves to tighten gambling rules, address prediction markets (Next.io): “Work is in progress on the second part of the new set of regulations, Gambling Package 2, which may bring in further restrictions. One such measure being considered is the banning of prediction markets, though no decision has been taken.”
KALSHI BACKS OFF EMERGENCY COURT BID IN UTAH GAMBLING FIGHT—BUT THE BIGGER FIGHT STILL LOOMS (Utah Political Watch, paywall): “Kalshi—an online prediction market currently suing Utah Gov. Spencer Cox and Attorney General Derek Brown—has backed off its demand for immediate court intervention in the case. The company withdrew its request for a temporary restraining order after striking an agreement with state lawyers, but it’s still pursuing a broader injunction to stop Utah from treating Kalshi as illegal gambling.”
Back on Substack + Polymarket: Asked about Polymarket’s statement that “journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets,” @hamishmckenzie tells @maxwelltani: “It’s not something that I would have said, it’s not the way that Substack would have expressed it, and I think it’s definitely not a truly defensible comment in the totality of it.”
Semafor@semaforAsked about Polymarket's statement that “journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets," @hamishmckenzie tells @maxwelltani: "It's not something that I would have said, it's not the way that Substack would have expressed it, and I think it's definitely not a truly11:37 PM · Feb 25, 2026 · 9.4K Views1 Reply · 5 Reposts · 14 LikesI will leave you with this tweet I am very fond of as we head into the weekend:
Dustin Gouker@DustinGoukerJust told my wife “this isn’t gambling because the CFTC chairman said it wasn’t”
Mike Selig @ChairmanSeligThanks @ScottJenningsKY for hosting me on your show today. We talked about the @CFTC’s role as a regulator and the difference between gambling and prediction markets. Watch more ⬇️🧵2:30 AM · Feb 27, 2026 · 2.54K Views2 Replies · 21 Likes
