Are We Really Regulating Sports Betting With Just One CFTC Commissioner?
Roundup: Nine European gaming regulators issue joint statement about prediction markets; Kalshi surpasses $8B in weekly trading volume; WSJ reports on marketing around fake Polymarket trades.
By now you probably know that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed new rules for how it will review certain event contracts. In a shock to no one, those rules are codifying that most sports event contracts will be allowed at CFTC-regulated prediction markets.
The CFTC went to great lengths in those proposed rules to make sure everyone UNDERSTANDS VERY CLEARLY, BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT that sports event contracts ARE NOT sports betting.
That’s cool and all, and the CFTC may very well end up being right that it has authority over prediction markets on sports, and the states can go pound sand if they don’t like it.
But there’s a big underlying problem. Whether this is legally gambling or not, prediction markets may be the biggest expansion of gambling-adjacent activity in US history: potentially all 50 states, available to adults 18 and over, outside the state-by-state framework that has governed sports betting since PASPA fell.
And that policy is being advanced by a one-member Commission.
Michael Selig is the chairman of the CFTC, and he is the only active commissioner out of five possible slots. The other four seats are vacant.
It certainly seems legal at this point for the CFTC to be run by one commissioner. The agency has historically been bipartisan, with more commissioners from the party of the president.
But this is not a serious way to go about codifying this … at the behest of one man and an agency that is taking his marching orders. Short of Congress making these rules, I don’t see how we’re supposed to take these rules seriously if other commissioners aren’t put in place to give more perspective.
Selig can and has put his hands up to say it’s up to President Donald Trump to nominate more commissioners. And he’s not wrong. But it’s also now hard to believe the slow-walking of adding new commissioners is coincidental.
This very good piece at Politico breaks down the environment in DC. And we may or may not get more — or Democratic — commissioners before rules on event contracts are finalized:
“Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman of Arkansas and House Agriculture Chair GT Thompson of Pennsylvania, whose committees oversee the CFTC, have called on Trump to nominate Republican and Democratic commissioners to join Selig. And many Democrats are pushing for more commissioners as part of the negotiations over the crypto bill. .. The White House plans to nominate “more America First patriots to the commission in the near future, which Chairman Selig has been supportive of,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.”
You can say Congress intended to allow sports event contracts until you are blue in the face. But if you had at any point put a bill in front of Congress that would have explicitly legalized sports betting exchanges, you would have gotten laughed off of Capitol Hill.
All I’m asking is this: If federally regulated sports betting is here to stay, we should take that policy discussion more seriously. There should be rules and guidelines about things like advertising, responsible gambling, minimum age and on and on. I am hopeful we will still see those things.
But we should be having a serious discussion about what this should look like — not advancing sweeping policy through a one-member Commission.
I had written this post before I went on vacation last week, but I saw a similar take out there in the interim, if you want to read that one too: “The United States Congress did not create the Commodity Futures Trading Commission so that one man could sit atop a tower of unchecked power and remake derivatives, prediction markets, and crypto in his own image.”
📊 The Ticker for Saturday, June 20
Kalshi Volume: $1.47 billion
Sports + parlays: 89.6% of volume
Crypto markets: 9.4% of volume
Trend line and breakdown from Ticker Tracker:
Kalshi has hit new highs in the past week, thanks in large part to the World Cup and a lot of parlay activity, the latter of which accounts for about 38% of total volume in recent days. For the seven days ending June 20, volume at Kalshi surpassed $8.7 billion. That’s double where it was for some weeks in May.
More at The Closing Line (premium paywall):
Also of note:
Prediction markets news roundup
🚨 The important stuff
Joint Statement by gambling regulators of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland (press release): It is now the 2026 Men’s FIFA World Cup.
We recognize that this is one of the most important and high-profile tournaments in the world and that we are therefore likely to see an increase in betting activity.
During this competition, alongside consumer protection issues, a form of gambling that is relatively new to many jurisdictions is sure to be the talk of the town: prediction market platforms. They have become increasingly popular over the last few years, particularly for young adults.
By allowing users to place bets on the outcome of political, sporting or geopolitical events, prediction markets have several addictive features, which are worsened by the fact that, in those countries where these platforms are not licensed they don’t offer any safeguards: platforms are open 24 hours a day, there are no built-in betting limits apart from the amounts staked, no time limits, light identity checks to verify that users are of legal age, etc. The combination of visibility, accessibility and the viral nature inherent to this type of platform creates a significant addictive cycle.
As regulators, we have a key role to play in ensuring player protection throughout the tournament and that prediction markets must operate in accordance with the licensing and regulatory requirements of a given jurisdiction. It is important to emphasize that this type of platform involves serious risks of illegality, fund blocking, fraud through insider information, and financial volatility. Furthermore, because they are unregulated in most countries, they can create serious addiction problems.
We will therefore be working closely together on this issue during this period; and in doing so we will not only ensure that gambling operators comply with regulations on advertising, betting integrity and player protection, but also act, where necessary, against prediction markets platforms that fail to comply with our local regulations.
We would also like to remind the various stakeholders in the sporting world, particularly sports federations, leagues and teams, to ensure that these platforms are lawful within their jurisdiction before entering into major partnerships with them.
Of course, throughout the tournament and beyond, we will be developing greater cross-border cooperation, particularly through the exchange of information, expertise and best practice, and most of us will step up our social media activity during the competition to promote safe gambling.
They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket—but None of It Was Real (WSJ): “In his videos, George Makihara appears to have a lucrative side hustle making bets on Polymarket. In January, the college student posted a video that showed him winning $100,000 on a wager that President Trump would publicly say the word ‘McDonald’s’ that month. The bet was one of 145 that Makihara appeared to place on Polymarket’s website between January and mid-May, based on his videos—bets adding up to almost $410,000. But none of those bets were real, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation.”
Neil Mehta@neilmhtaNEW investigation for @WSJ: - Polymarket is paying scores of offshore clippers to quietly promote its international exchange in the U.S. (though it’s banned from letting Americans trade on the platform) - Polymarket made dummy websites mirroring its real site, then paid creators
1:31 AM · Jun 21, 2026 · 134K Views56 Replies · 282 Reposts · 1.37K Likes📍Look, you can’t claim to be both the most accurate truth machine in history and also make shit up entirely. Again, this is the kind of stuff that would get sportsbooks in huge trouble. Instead, we will get a WSJ story and that’s it.
I also saw people defending Polymarket in the wake of this story, and brothers and sisters in Christ, find a better hill to die on. Sometimes you can/should admit something is bad/wrong and move on with life.
Charles Schwab Breaks Into the Prediction Market Business (WSJ): “The brokerage is working with Cboe Global Markets to roll out all-or-nothing options contracts that allow customers to place yes-or-no wagers on the performance of the S&P 500, according to people familiar with the matter.”
Wealthsimple and Kalshi Partner to Bring Prediction Markets to Canada (Kalshi): Wealthsimple announced the release of Wealthsimple Predict, providing retail investors the ability to trade event contracts on Kalshi. The standalone application is scheduled to launch this summer. Through the app, users will have access to approximately 4,000 Kalshi event-based contracts in categories Wealthsimple is authorized to offer in the Canadian market, specifically climate, financial markets, and economic indicators.
“Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world – where inflation is headed, what happens to rates, or how the year unfolds. Until now, Canadians have had limited access,” said Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and Chief Product Officer, Wealthsimple. “Wealthsimple Predict gives Canadians a clean, well-designed way to access these markets, with education and guardrails built in from day one.”
“Kalshi was founded on a simple belief: views on the future should have markets, and those markets should be available to everyone,” said Alex Cuoci, Kalshi. “That’s why we’re partnering with Wealthsimple, Canada’s leading financial innovator - to give everyday investors in Canada access to fair, secure, and regulated prediction markets.”
Kalshi Passes $2 Billion in Annualized Revenue, Holds Informal IPO Talks (The Information, paywall)
It Seems The COO Of Betr Just Built A Slot Machine On Kalshi (InGame): “On just another regular day in the rapidly evolving world of prediction markets, it appears the COO of Betr created a slot machine on Kalshi. Alex Ursa, Betr’s COO, posted Wednesday on X what amounts to … well, as he put in his post, ‘I’ve built a slot on top of their APIs.’ Here it is, in all its glory:”
alex ursa@alexursaI hope I'm not going to get my @Kalshi personal account blocked but I've build a Slot on top of their APIs. I can tweak with it to make it more or less volatiles, this very is very low volatility one and with some restrictions but sky is the limit. These are all real4:20 PM · Jun 17, 2026 · 160K Views29 Replies · 13 Reposts · 233 Likes🔍 A Kalshi employee said on Twitter that Ursa’s account had been banned and that this “seems illegal” without offering why it might not be legal, which is not at all clear.
Brandon Beckhardt@beckhardt@FairPredicts Do you think people are that stupid? Some guy built a website with slot machines, using our markets as a seed. It has nothing to do with prediction markets and he could have done that with stock prices, pork belly future prices, or a random number generator. Also we banned his9:43 PM · Jun 18, 2026 · 742 Views1 Reply · 17 LikesThe lessons of the slot machine concept based on prediction markets are:
Someone was always going to do this, just a matter of who and when.
We haven’t come close to realizing how many ways people might gamify prediction markets in ways that may very well be legal.
⚖️ Legal and regulatory news
CME Sues U.S. Regulator to Stop Kalshi From Offering Popular ‘Perp’ Futures (WSJ): “In its suit, filed in federal court in Washington, CME argued that the CFTC violated U.S. law by classifying Kalshi’s perps as futures and not swaps. In doing so, the CFTC decision allows Kalshi to sidestep rules intended to protect the economy from the ‘special dangers that unregulated swaps posed,’ lawyers for the exchange operator wrote.”
Steil pushes bill to ban lawmakers from political prediction markets (Politico): “House Administration Chair Bryan Steil is pitching legislation that would bar lawmakers and their family members from wagering on certain Washington-focused prediction markets. The Wisconsin Republican’s bill, introduced Thursday, proposes to prohibit members of Congress, their spouses and their dependent children from participating in prediction markets that are focused on specific government policy, government action or political outcomes.”
📣 Industry news
Polymarket and Splash Sports Announce Strategic Partnership, Launching World’s Largest Pro Football Survivor Contest with $21 Million Guaranteed (press release): Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, and Splash Sports, the leader in skill-based social sports gaming, today announced a new partnership that will bring prediction markets to Splash users beginning with the 2026 NFL season. As part of the partnership, Polymarket will also sponsor the world’s largest pro football survivor contest, featuring a record $21 million in guaranteed prizes.
Additional highlights include:
Splash integrates Polymarket’s event-driven trading into its platform as a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker, giving its 2 million active users access to prediction markets alongside survivor, pick’em, daily fantasy, and commissioner-led contests.
A standalone Splash Market tab in the Splash app, powered by Polymarket, with markets embedded throughout existing games and user experiences
“The next phase of sports engagement will be defined by the gamification of live events,” said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. “Splash has built one of the largest skill-based social sports communities in the United States and I’ve personally been a user of their legacy brand for many years. We believe that partnering with them for the biggest survivor contest in history is the perfect way to bring prediction markets to NFL fans at scale.”
“Polymarket helped bring prediction markets to the mainstream with their mobile-first product during the 2024 election, becoming the prediction market of record globally,” said TJ Ross, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Splash Sports. “We’re doing the same for the survivor format. For decades, the biggest contest in this category required a flight to Las Vegas, a hotel, and a paid proxy. Now anyone with a phone in 35+ states (plus Canada) can play in the largest survivor contest in history.”
Another Polymarket deal:
Polymarket@PolymarketPolymarket 🤝 GRID As the exclusive prediction market of Grid, we will be rolling out an all new esports experience: ad-free & faster-than-public streams, official data straight from game servers, a redesigned esports page, & more. Massive rewards live now.
5:20 PM · Jun 21, 2026 · 74.8K Views109 Replies · 36 Reposts · 402 LikesKalshi in iMessage?
Arlan@arlanrToday, we're introducing Kalshi in Folk: the first way to trade on anything directly from iMessage. Folk is an AI designed to connect people and handle your day-to-day tasks. Now, you can bet on the future without ever leaving the chat. Text. Connect. Trade on anything.8:03 PM · Jun 19, 2026 · 193K Views68 Replies · 13 Reposts · 454 Likes👴 Maybe I am an old (I know I am), but I don’t think anyone really wants to use messaging to bet/trade.
Betr has a job for Compliance Lead, Prediction Markets: Betr is building a prediction markets product offering event-based contracts, and we’re looking for an experienced compliance and regulatory professional to help build and scale our regulatory compliance program. This is a high-impact role for someone who wants to work at the frontier of a fast-evolving regulatory space. This position will work closely with senior leadership and cross-functional teams (product, engineering, business) to design a compliant product and build the regulatory infrastructure to support it. While the primary focus is prediction markets, this person will also provide support across our other consumer-facing verticals as needs arise.
📖 Everything else you should know/read
Kalshi CEO Downplays Polymarket Rivalry (Front Office Sports): “Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour doesn’t consider Polymarket to be his primary competition, and tells Front Office Sports the rival prediction-market platform should ‘come under the regulated umbrella’ because its recent scandals serve to sully the entire industry’s reputation.”
Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for (CNN): “This is not the future any of us were hoping for,” Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan professor and a leading expert on prediction markets who co-authored the 2008 paper, told CNN.
Wisdom of the Few? Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders (Yale Insights): “For a new working paper, Jensen and his co-authors, Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung of the London Business School, tested the ‘wisdom of crowds’ view of markets by looking at publicly available trading data from Polymarket, which bills itself as the world’s biggest prediction market. They found that, in fact, prediction markets’ accuracy derives from the bets of a handful of skilled traders—who, unfortunately for the overwhelming majority of participants, also reap the lion’s share of the financial winnings.”
Polymarket and Dear Media Team for Weekly Podcast ‘What Are the Odds?’ (Variety): “Polymarket is getting into the podcast business. The prediction market is teaming up with Dear Media to launch ‘What Are the Odds?,’ a new weekly podcast that blends celebrity news, internet moments and real-time prediction data.”
A Viral Knicks Moment, Brought to You by a Prediction Market (New York Times): “Prediction market platforms paid influencers who concocted pro-Knicks catchphrases and pulled viral social media stunts. The companies promoted themselves on TikTok and worked with at least one Upper East Side bar to cover everyone’s tab after the Knicks had rallied to beat the Spurs in Game 1.”
From Chalamet to Messi, prediction markets are betting on celebrities to boost their brands (CBS News): “It’s maybe newer for prediction markets to go down this path, but it’s kind of just the age-old mass marketing approach you see, especially when you’re trying to establish legitimacy in a space,” said Jared Watson, an associate professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Predictions markets are spoiling reality TV (Morning Brew): “The government wants to know: Is The Traitors really a game? Does The Masked Singer involve luck, skill, or athletic ability? And, most importantly, should you be able to bet on Survivor?”